Wait, Weren't We Supposed to Have a Recession in 2025? - Big Take

[Warpy]

4. The "K shaped economy" says it all, really

Money attracts money. I've more than tripled my own inheritance into a truly embarrassing amount because all that tax break money keeps flooding into the stock market, hyper inflating it. I posted last summer that the Shiller number was 40, nearing the point where a crash becomes inevitable. I shudder to think of what it is now.

So for now, those of us on the upper part, even in the crotch of the K where I reside, have been doing just fine. People who are depending on paychecks that are going nowhere in a shitty job market are already deeply into recession.

;So, how do we explain the early Xmas sales figures? Well, either the numbers are being fudged or people with stagnant wages and nowhere to go for a better job are determined to have one last big blowout, especially for their kids, before those stupid tariffs make that completely impossible. I honestly suspect it's the latter. This year, that must have toy or electronic game. Next year, oranges and clothing.