Wait, Weren't We Supposed to Have a Recession in 2025? - Big Take

[SouthBayDem]

Dec 15, 2025 The Big Take | Bloomberg Podcasts
All year, the jobs market, consumer sentiment, AI and inflation flashed warning signs about the economy — but 2025 managed to avoid a recession.
On today’s Big Take podcast, host Sarah Holder talks with Bloomberg’s Stacey Vanek Smith and Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi to understand what this year’s wonky economy can tell us as we head into 2026 and what to watch for in the new year.

Full transcript

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

1. Not to worry. We always have recessions with

Republican presidents. Just give it time.

[Bluestocking]

2. We are currently in a recession

The federal government is fudging the numbers

[NotHardly]

3. THIS

[Warpy]

4. The "K shaped economy" says it all, really

Money attracts money. I've more than tripled my own inheritance into a truly embarrassing amount because all that tax break money keeps flooding into the stock market, hyper inflating it. I posted last summer that the Shiller number was 40, nearing the point where a crash becomes inevitable. I shudder to think of what it is now.

So for now, those of us on the upper part, even in the crotch of the K where I reside, have been doing just fine. People who are depending on paychecks that are going nowhere in a shitty job market are already deeply into recession.

;So, how do we explain the early Xmas sales figures? Well, either the numbers are being fudged or people with stagnant wages and nowhere to go for a better job are determined to have one last big blowout, especially for their kids, before those stupid tariffs make that completely impossible. I honestly suspect it's the latter. This year, that must have toy or electronic game. Next year, oranges and clothing.