2016 Postmortem

BigBoss26

(25 posts)

66. What it takes to win in the primaries is different than what it takes to win in the GE.

Reply to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 12:19 AM

Dec 2016

It's why it's kind of obnoxious that a lot of Clinton supporters automatically dismiss Bernie's chances in the GE with "OMG HE LOST TO HILLARY!!" screeching. In the primaries, staunch support from your party is crucial. Hillary had that, Bernie didn't. But the reality is that staunch party loyalists are likely voting for the Democratic nominee regardless of who it is. In that way, Bernie would likely have retained most of the support Hillary got in the GE.

But while staunch party support gets you through the primaries, it's crossover appeal that cinches the GE. You could argue that Bernie had the edge over Hillary in that department. That's why many, myself included, felt that he was a better GE candidate despite not winning in the primaries.

All that said, it's definitely true that Bernie didn't have the kitchen sink thrown at him the way Hillary did so we have no way of knowing if his crossover appeal would have held up. It's all just speculation.

As for how the election might have been different electorally, it's tough to say. I definitely think Bernie would have done better in MI and WI but he might have lost VA. Neither was ever winning OH(and I say that as an Ohio resident). PA... I'm not not really sure about.

In the end, it's possible that neither would have won. Trump tapped into a very dark part of the electorate and we all underestimated just how many simpletons are out there.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

82 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

In which states would Bernie have done better or worse.. [View all] speaktruthtopower Dec 2016 OP

I don't think that's the right question FBaggins Dec 2016 #1

I suspect he'd have won Alaska. Kentonio Dec 2016 #2

Stop with the fantasies. Bernie would have lost to Trump for real. baldguy Dec 2016 #3

Maybe, maybe not. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #5

Sorry, no. baldguy Dec 2016 #7

Well, TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #8

Clinton beat Trump by 3 million actual votes. baldguy Dec 2016 #9

Here's the deal - TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #11

Here's the deal - you're always going to fail when you try to "prove" a falsehood. baldguy Dec 2016 #13

Those you are describing when you say "Midwestern white evangelical hypocrites" are, PotatoChip Dec 2016 #82

"Jew?!" Are you aware at all? JudyM Dec 2016 #14

The fact the the poster went there is all that's needed to know. NWCorona Dec 2016 #22

You think Midwestern white evangelical hypocrites would just gloss over Sanders being Jewish? baldguy Dec 2016 #61

I think some have a problem with Jewish people regardless of geographical location NWCorona Dec 2016 #63

And those people voted for Trump, and would not have voted for Sanders. baldguy Dec 2016 #71

You don't think there are anti-Semites on the left? NWCorona Dec 2016 #74

It's not anti-Semitic to point out that RW assholes, supported by Nazis, just might be anti-Semitic. baldguy Dec 2016 #78

Sanders would have had those CA votes too. nt Lonusca Dec 2016 #16

These rust belt states.. speaktruthtopower Dec 2016 #17

Jew? And the shoe drops. NWCorona Dec 2016 #21

You lost your credibility around here, dude. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #43

Sanders actually did poorly with Jewish voters also Gothmog Dec 2016 #46

Sanders has a better shot in WI, OH, MI, and PA Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #53

You got that right! JudyM Dec 2016 #79

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2016 #73

Sanders was a very weak general election candidate who would have been destroyed in the general Gothmog Dec 2016 #36

You have no way to know that. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #40

In the real world facts matter Gothmog Dec 2016 #45

In the real world, TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #48

I live in the real world where facts and authorities are important Gothmog Dec 2016 #54

IT DOESN'T FUCKING MATTER. Vinca Dec 2016 #4

It's getting embarrassing isn't it? nini Dec 2016 #64

Maine 2nd district crazycatlady Dec 2016 #6

The blue wall would have held and tRump would be a distant memory! Joe941 Dec 2016 #10

The fact that Clinton outperformed the Senate candidates in PA and WI suggests otherwise. LonePirate Dec 2016 #12

That's where the expectation she would win hurt.. speaktruthtopower Dec 2016 #18

'Don't confuse me with the facts' emulatorloo Dec 2016 #29

Your's is the only question that really matters Lonusca Dec 2016 #15

Yup zipplewrath Dec 2016 #20

I doubt he'd have lost VA but it might've been closer. Our population is shifting and northern JudyM Dec 2016 #25

Might have done well in Florida zipplewrath Dec 2016 #33

If he had won the primary ismnotwasm Dec 2016 #19

We will never know and as he won't be running again I think it's time to let it go NWCorona Dec 2016 #23

Better in some solidly red states but not enough to win. Worse overall elsewhere. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #24

Yeah, it would have helped if he actually registered Democrat too.. JHan Dec 2016 #34

It might have helped a bit, but he still wouldn't have had the support of the base. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #38

He was not a viable candidate for president duffyduff Dec 2016 #26

Which is actually an excellent argument to make for Sanders to have been the candidate. guillaumeb Dec 2016 #31

Him not being viable is an excellent argument for him being the nominee? Garrett78 Dec 2016 #37

Following the logic of the poster, Bloomberg would have been the President. guillaumeb Dec 2016 #58

Perhaps. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #60

Are we still pretending this wasn't an election of change? Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #55

Can't say I know who would have won, but Yupster Dec 2016 #75

Clearly it is hard to tell. Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #76

do you understand the absurdity of saying that the media hardly took him serious because JCanete Dec 2016 #59

Who cares? Bernie lost to Clinton. Clinton lost to Trump hollowdweller Dec 2016 #27

Well establishment Dems have run the party into the ground NCDem777 Dec 2016 #52

Just stop it okay??? New rule: No Bernie cultism on DU Dream Girl Dec 2016 #28

God forbid we talk about what might need to be done to win the next election. Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #56

There is nothing wrong with alternative history, or speculative fiction, guillaumeb Dec 2016 #30

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2016 #32

Is rehashing this going to accompmish ANYTHING? You've already got some of dionysus Dec 2016 #35

Bernie Sanders Was On The 2016 Ballot And He Underperformed Hillary Clinton Gothmog Dec 2016 #39

Says you. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #42

The facts are on my side Gothmog Dec 2016 #44

.... Donald Trump is president-elect TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #47

Sanders did poorly with Dems in the primary. Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #57

When a popular Dem is in the White House, you can't expect the Dem nominee to run on "change." Garrett78 Dec 2016 #65

Are you going to admit that that was a huge mistake? Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #77

I think the Clinton campaign should have done more outreach to rural Democrats in swing states. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #81

That would rather depend on who was campaigning for him... Orsino Dec 2016 #41

Yeah pretty much like you said. Willie Pep Dec 2016 #49

He'd probably have held every state HRC took, and added the Upper Midwest+Iowa and Ohio Ken Burch Dec 2016 #50

Bernie would have won Michigan. putitinD Dec 2016 #51

The issue with Bernie, as well as O'Malley, is that a very different Bernie Sanders or StevieM Dec 2016 #62

What it takes to win in the primaries is different than what it takes to win in the GE. BigBoss26 Dec 2016 #66

Turnout of the base is important, though. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #68

Turnout of the base is definitely important. You won't get any argument from me there. BigBoss26 Dec 2016 #70

Michigan and Wisconsin TexasBushwhacker Dec 2016 #67

Note sure, but I was grateful that Bernie never ran as a third party candidate... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #69

At a minimum, he wins Hillary states + PA, MI, and WI jfern Dec 2016 #72

He won the Michigan primary KamaAina Dec 2016 #80