2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIn which states would Bernie have done better or worse..
is the question.
Probably better in the Rust belt. Maybe not as well in states like Virginia.
FBaggins
(27,702 posts)It would have been an entirely different race. He might have outperformed in every state... or none.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)baldguy
(36,649 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,216 posts)baldguy
(36,649 posts)The story of President Sanders is a fairy tale for children.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,216 posts)Trump had no chance of even getting the party nomination.
Then Hillary was supposed to mop the floor with him in the GE.
Tell me again - How did that work out?
Never, ever rule anything out in politics. If you do, you're destined to be disappointed.
Sanders most certainly would have had a good shot at winning.
baldguy
(36,649 posts)Show me that liberal elitist socialist Jew caucus representing all those Red states Trump won that Sanders would have been able to win over.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,216 posts)If Donald Trump could (and did) actually win the GE, certainly Bernie Sanders could have won.
Learn from this experience, or you'll go up in smoke again next time.
baldguy
(36,649 posts)The Midwestern white evangelical hypocrites that overwhelmingly voted for the slimy piece of filth Trump were never going to vote for his complete opposite, Sanders. They're the one he would have had to win over. Just relying on the anti-Democrat Clinton-hating misogynist "liberals" wouldn't have done it.
PotatoChip
(3,186 posts)and always have been, solid R voters. Therefore, you are right that they never would have voted for Bernie. Those same people never voted for Obama either, but he still won those states without them.
Why? Because the Obama Coalition had other persuadable groups of people that (for whatever reason) Clinton failed to win over. Bernie had them too in the Primary with the exception of the more partisan Ds who went w/Clinton. However, those same partisan Ds would have needed little to no convincing to vote for Bernie in the GE had he been the D nominee...(Even if he was not their first choice). The harder ones to get, such as moderate and left leaning I's or Green Party type Progressives were already with Bernie and Obama.
IOW, had Bernie been the D nominee in the GE, he would have had the entirety of Obama's winning coalition.
JudyM
(29,517 posts)And where are you getting that he's elitist? I guess that "fits" your stereotype, but it's the antithesis of Sanders, if you knew anything about his positions on issues.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)baldguy
(36,649 posts)These are people that still believe that every Jewish person alive today is personally responsible for the murder of their Savior, Jesus Christ. That the only problem with Hitler is that he didn't finish the job.
You really think Sanders would have been able to win them over?
The fact that you and the previous poster can't handle the plain evil we're dealing with & what they actually believe, and instead choose to ignore it & direct unwarranted insults toward me instead tells me everything I need to know.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)Framing is everything.
baldguy
(36,649 posts)Pretending they would have is a fantasy.
But you just keep going with your creepy insinuations the people who point out that fact are anti-Semites.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)As a black man in WA I think racism is alive and thriving regardless of the political spectrum
baldguy
(36,649 posts)Last edited Thu Dec 22, 2016, 09:27 PM - Edit history (1)
And pointing out that those same RW assholes, supported by racists, just might be racist themselves is not racist.
And to casually toss those accusations around - as you and some others here are doing - only helps those RW assholes & their allies.
Lonusca
(202 posts)speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)voted for a black man. I think its fair to say the message means more than the ethnic and religious background.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,216 posts)You "went there" once too often.
Gothmog
(154,456 posts)Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)He was running on the economy and that seems to be how/why people voted in those states. Those states flip and Sanders wins.
Now, which states that Clinton won do you think Sanders wouldn't.
JudyM
(29,517 posts)Response to baldguy (Reply #9)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Gothmog
(154,456 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,216 posts)Trump had absolutely no chance of winning the GE, either.
Until he did...............
Gothmog
(154,456 posts)Sanders was in effect on the ballot in a number of races and Sanders under performed Clinton. Facts are good things.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,216 posts)which is still a bit foreign to you.
Gothmog
(154,456 posts)It is a nice place.
Vinca
(51,033 posts)Yes, I'm screaming. It doesn't matter, it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Sometimes life sucks, sometimes it doesn't. This forum needs to be axed and given a new, future-looking title.
nini
(16,713 posts)Jesus.. the same crap over and over and over... most of it is not even based in reality.
I'M SCREAMING WITH YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)Joe941
(2,848 posts)LonePirate
(13,893 posts)Clinton pulled some Republicans - likely women - from the straight ticket Republican voters. There's nothing to suggest more of them (along with men) would have opted for Sanders.
speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)people may have been splitting the ticket to maintain balance.
emulatorloo
(45,564 posts)Appreciate all of your fact based posts recently. The facts just don't support the narratives that are gaining so much traction here.
Lonusca
(202 posts)Where would he have lost a state Clinton won (subtraction from her EC totals) and where would he have won where she lost (added).
Off the bat - would he have won MI and WI? I think those two are quite possible
WI and MI were so close, his reputation on NAFTA and the TPP could have made the difference. Flip side is really where he might have lost. VA is a possibility.
JudyM
(29,517 posts)VA would likely have carried him, just as it did Obama, twice.
I did a lot of door to door in the VA primaries and can tell you that most people said they liked him better personally but they didn't know much about him, and also were leaning toward voting for a woman. VA was an early state, remember. Sanders did much better as time went on and he started getting media coverage. So he would've inspired heavy turnout in the north. The question is whether more people in mid/southern VA would've come out to vote against him. Personally, I think not.
zipplewrath
(16,692 posts)I'm dubious, but he might have picked up a significant jewish vote in some areas. Maybe not though since there is a certain contingent that didn't think his support of Israel was strong enough. It's hard to tell too if he would have lost so many minority votes that it could have hurt him in unexpected places as well.
The one way it might have helped him over all was that Trump wasn't going to be able to beat him with the whole trade/NAFTA/TPP stick. He'd have beat him with other ones, but Bernie could have come back with minimum wage and tax returns. There would have been no "lock him up" either.
But, we'll never know.
ismnotwasm
(42,454 posts)We would know. But he lost that
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)Bernie will fight on in the Senate.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)He would have done better with young people and white men, but quite a bit worse overall.
You aren't going to win the Democratic Party nomination if you don't do well among persons of color, and it's a moot point if you can't get nominated.
JHan
(10,173 posts)but different standards I guess.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)And if not for caucuses he *really* wouldn't have stood a chance.
duffyduff
(3,251 posts)which is why he was not nominated. The media hardly took him seriously because of it.
He would not have carried a single state outside Vermont. In fact, we would have President Michael Bloomberg and not Trump because MB would have made good on his threat to run an independent candidacy.
guillaumeb
(42,649 posts)However, he did not win the nomination and Trump is the President elect.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)How so?
guillaumeb
(42,649 posts)A better choice than Trump.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I'm not sure anyone would have gotten to 270 electoral votes, in which case the House would have chosen.
Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)Because if that's true, then, sure, he has no hope.
But if this was an election of change and a crazy, unqualified outsider got elected, that kind of changes the dynamic of whether Sanders does well.
Yeah, sure, he didn't win the nomination. Because Dems didn't see this as an election of change. How'd that work out for us?
Yupster
(14,308 posts)I think Trump would have run against him as the career politician who's been in Washington for 30 years and hasn't done a damn thing.
Don't know what Bernie's message for the general would be so I can't really see in my own mind who would have won.
I don't see Bernie losing Michigan though.
Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)But I agree that Sanders would have done better in the rust belt. Sure he would have done poorly in the south where Clinton killed him, but Clinton didn't win those states in the general.
JCanete
(5,272 posts)Last edited Thu Dec 22, 2016, 07:36 AM - Edit history (1)
he wasn't a viable candidate?
This is really important, and I'm glad that you would present the facts the way you did because they present an opportunity to actually talk about the media's role in king making. Was Trump a viable candidate for President? Did the media take him seriously?
Yes it fucking did, whether that's what it thought it was doing or not, it was propping him up as a contender.
I'm so glad that you recognize that during the primaries the media didn't' take Sanders seriously. I absolutely agree. To go further, I agree that had he won that uphill battle and taken the primary, the media would have found a way to take him less seriously than Trump.
So I ask you, what does that actually say about our media's role in electioneering? What does that say about our media's role in determining who is viable? The media didn't think Sanders was a joke because he wasn't viable. The media had no interest in promoting a socialist and for that reason tried to make him a joke and to ensure that he wasn't viable.
I'm simply saying, you can't accept your own characterization of Sander's viability without running into contradictions when it comes to Trump's candidacy.
Absolutely, had Bloomberg run, we know who the media would have favored...but it would have been a strange year, and he would have pulled more republicans than progressives, so I"m not so certain of your end result, but I grant I don't know the answer, and as Sanders himself has said, "What does it matter now?"
hollowdweller
(4,229 posts)The question we should be asking is who are our new candidates? Can we get one that appeals to establishment dems, progressives and does not have the baggage that Clinton had with the private server.
NCDem777
(458 posts)trying to chase after mythical rightwing voters who don't believe in every conspiracy theory that has ever been written.
Those rightwing voters do not factually exist.
The establishment Dems HAD their chance. The only time they win is when Repukes shoot themselves in the foot. Here's a list of Establishment "victories" since we tried the "Third Way" (IE being more polite Randians)
Bill Clinton won because of Republican incompetence. Once because Bush Sr. reneged on his No New Taxes pledge and once because Bob Dole was a terrible candidate. Barack Obama won because we were tired of Bush's warmongering and all around stupidity. He beat Romney because conservatives stayed home on account of him not being conservative enough for their tastes.
But when we went full tilt progressive in 06-08, we cleaned house.
The "establishment" can't win unless the Republicans screw themselves first. Not sustainable.
Just nominate an actual progressive. There's no Dem we could possibly nominate that will appeal to the nutters no matter how far right they swung. All trying to appeal to those assholes does is alienate actual progressives. All bending over backwards to compromise with conspiracy theorists accomplishes is give up everything we want and get not a damn thing in return.
Lilly livered blue poodles should not have any leadership positions in the Dem party. We tried their way. They failed horribly.
Dream Girl
(5,111 posts)Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)No, let's just talk about how this one was stolen from Clinton. And blame it on white, racist, rural voters. That should help us out in 2020.
guillaumeb
(42,649 posts)but given that it did not happen, there can be no real resolution. Any "how would he have done" posts assume far too much. The GOP would still have done their best to steal the election.
Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
dionysus
(26,467 posts)The hillary fans calling to purge liberals from the party because they blame bernie so much... which causes some bernie peeps to rub in her loss... this is just going to end up a flame war.
PS like you said i think he may have done better in the rust belt, other places, not so sure. Might have done worse in the south.
Gothmog
(154,456 posts)This is a good article that demonstrates that Sanders would have under performed in the general election https://extranewsfeed.com/bernie-sanders-was-on-the-2016-ballot-and-he-underperformed-hillary-clinton-3b561e8cb779#.jbtsa3epl
And the white workers whose supposed hate for corporate interests led them to vote for Trump? They dont seem upset that Trump has installed three Goldman Sachs executives in his administration. They dont seem to be angry that Trumps cabinet is the wealthiest in US history. And we havent heard any discontent from the white working class over Trump choosing an Exxon Mobil CEO for Secretary of State.
The devil is in the details, and at first glance, it is easy to see why so many people can believe that Bernie actually would have won. He got a great deal of positive media coverage as the underdog early on, especially with Republicans deliberately eschewing attacks on him in favor of attacks on Clinton. His supporters also trended younger and whiter, demographics that tend to be more visible in the media around election time. A highly energized and vocal minority of Sanders supporters dominated social media, helping him win online polls by huge margins.
But at some point, you have to put away the narrative and actually evaluate performance. This happens in sports all the time, especially with hyped up amateur college prospects before they go pro. Big time college players are often surrounded by an aura, a narrative of sorts, which pushes many casual observers to believe their college skills will translate to success on the next level. But professional teams have to evaluate the performance of these amateur players to determine if they can have success as professionals, regardless what the narrative surrounding them in college was. A college player with a lot of hype isnt necessarily going to succeed professionally. In fact, some of the most hyped up prospects have the most underwhelming performances at the next level. In the same vein, we can evaluate Sanders performance in 2016 and determine whether his platform is ready for the next level. Sanders endorsed a plethora of candidates and initiatives across the country, in coastal states and Rust Belt states. He campaigned for these candidates and initiatives because they represented his platform and his vision for the future of the Democratic Party. In essence, Bernie Sanders was on the 2016 ballot. Lets take a look at how he performed.
After looking at a number of races where sanders supported candidates under perform Hillary Clinton, that author makes a strong closing
Why did Sanders underperform Clinton significantly throughout 2016 first in the primaries, and then with his candidates and initiatives in the general? If Sanders platform and candidates had lost, but performed better than Clinton, than that would be an indicator that perhaps he was on to something. If they had actually won, then he could really claim to have momentum. But instead, we saw the opposite result: Sanders platform lost, and lost by much bigger margins than Clinton did. It even lost in states Clinton won big. What does that tell us about the future of the Democratic Party? Well, perhaps we need to acknowledge that the Bernie Sanders platform just isnt as popular as its made out to be.
Sanders would have been destroyed by trump in the general election and would have done far worse than Hillary Clinton
TheCowsCameHome
(40,216 posts)We would have been no worse off if he had run and lost.
Meanwhile, get used to gagging out the words "President Trump".
Gothmog
(154,456 posts)Sanders did poorly on the ballot this cycle compared to Clinton. Facts are good things.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,216 posts)Not Bernie Sanders. And definitely not HRC.
That is a fact.
Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)And Dems clearly thought as a whole that this wasn't an election of change. How'd that work out for us?
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)Because it clearly was.
And, for the record, Bill Clinton told the campaign that they were ignoring the white working class that elected him and it was problematic. Feingold told the campaign that things weren't good in Wisconsin and he needed her help and she had to be here to win the state. Both were basically told to pound sand.
But, hey, just keep pointing fingers and not acutally admit that the campaign was done poorly. That should help in the future.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)And, yes, she should have spent more time in WI, MI, etc. It's about outreach and time spent; not the message.
Again, running on "change" wouldn't make any sense and would piss off Clinton's two most important and popular surrogates, Barack and Michelle Obama.
Clinton won among the working class, among those for whom 'the economy' is a top priority, among those most hurt by the recession. If a segment of the *white* working class has much different priorities or desires than the working class as a whole, one need not think long and hard to determine why that might be.
The white backlash that's built over the last 8 years, the FBI's unprecedented last minute interference, voter suppression enabled by the Shelby County v. Holder decision, Russia-Wikileaks, 25+ years of Clinton hate, and a pathetic media (with its ratings-focused obsession with spectacle and made-up controversies, as well as the penchant for pushing false equivalencies in the name of some twisted sense of what constitutes "balance" is a hell of a lot to overcome.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)...on who voted for him, and whatever other factors had to be flipped to get Sanders nominated in that alternate timeline. We don't get to know.
Willie Pep
(841 posts)Sanders may have done better in the Rust Belt but probably worse in the South, which we lost anyway, besides Virginia.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)(depending on the effectiveness of both the Trump smear campaign on him and the effectiveness of his response to it).
But it serves no purpose to speculate because that didn't happen and we need to move forward.
putitinD
(1,551 posts)StevieM
(10,540 posts)Martin O'Malley would have been introduced to the voters.
We would have heard all about what miserable human beings they are, complete with their own fake scandals. And possibly even an FBI investigation.
BigBoss26
(25 posts)It's why it's kind of obnoxious that a lot of Clinton supporters automatically dismiss Bernie's chances in the GE with "OMG HE LOST TO HILLARY!!" screeching. In the primaries, staunch support from your party is crucial. Hillary had that, Bernie didn't. But the reality is that staunch party loyalists are likely voting for the Democratic nominee regardless of who it is. In that way, Bernie would likely have retained most of the support Hillary got in the GE.
But while staunch party support gets you through the primaries, it's crossover appeal that cinches the GE. You could argue that Bernie had the edge over Hillary in that department. That's why many, myself included, felt that he was a better GE candidate despite not winning in the primaries.
All that said, it's definitely true that Bernie didn't have the kitchen sink thrown at him the way Hillary did so we have no way of knowing if his crossover appeal would have held up. It's all just speculation.
As for how the election might have been different electorally, it's tough to say. I definitely think Bernie would have done better in MI and WI but he might have lost VA. Neither was ever winning OH(and I say that as an Ohio resident). PA... I'm not not really sure about.
In the end, it's possible that neither would have won. Trump tapped into a very dark part of the electorate and we all underestimated just how many simpletons are out there.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Republicans voting for Sanders would have been few and far between. Meanwhile, in terms of turnout of the Democratic Party base, Sanders likely would have done worse than Clinton did. In fact, I don't think Sanders would have won nearly as many states--it would have been an electoral college landslide. Of course, as others have pointed out, Bloomberg probably would have run had Sanders and Trump been the nominees. No telling what would have happened in that scenario.
BigBoss26
(25 posts)And I certainly think it's fair to say that an argument for Hillary as the nominee is that she'd definitely be starting with a bigger guaranteed bank of support.
But I still think, ultimately, the party loyalists show up for Bernie in the GE. They might have have hemmed and hawed about it a little more but they'd be there in the end. In a way, Trump himself was the biggest guarantee that the base would come out. Trump wasn't just an unqualified candidate, he outright scares sensible voters(and he should). So I think the base would have been there regardless of who got the nomination.
So for me, the question isn't whether or not the base comes out, it's: Was Bernie's crossover appeal real and, if so, would it hold up under Republican attacks? We can't know the answer to this one way or the other but that's the real "what if" when it comes to this particular topic.
TexasBushwhacker
(20,667 posts)Considering he won the primaries in those states, I think there's a good chance he would have won them in the GE. Alaska perhaps.
He might have done better in some closed primary states, including Pennsylvania, because he might have picked up independents. Johnson and Stein got 1.9% more votes combined in Pennsylvania than they did in 2012 and since Clinton lost PA by.73%, that hurt.
Nationwide, Johnson got more than 3 times as many votes as he did in 2012. Though Stein didn't do as well as Johnson, she also got about 3 times as many votes as she did in 2012.
There have always been 3rd parties and independents. Look how well Perot did in 92 and 96. This time the "others" got a total of 6%. We can stick our noses up and say we don't need those people, but in the swing states, we do.
Buckeye_Democrat
(15,042 posts)... in the general election. As it turned out, it wouldn't have mattered.
I sometimes wonder if it will happen next time? I hope not, but I'm reminded of Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party of 1912, with a platform of ideas that Democrats later adopted to win their supporters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_(United_States,_1912)
The platform's main theme was reversing the domination of politics by business interests, which allegedly controlled the Republican and Democratic parties, alike. The platform asserted that:
To destroy this invisible Government, to dissolve the unholy alliance between corrupt business and corrupt politics is the first task of the statesmanship of the day.
To that end, the platform called for:
Strict limits and disclosure requirements on political campaign contributions
Registration of lobbyists
Recording and publication of Congressional committee proceedings
In the social sphere the platform called for:
A National Health Service to include all existing government medical agencies.
Social insurance, to provide for the elderly, the unemployed, and the disabled
Limited the ability of judges to order injunctions to limit labor strikes.
A minimum wage law for women
An eight-hour workday
A federal securities commission
Farm relief
Workers' compensation for work-related injuries
An inheritance tax
The political reforms proposed included:
Women's suffrage
Direct election of Senators
Primary elections for state and federal nominations
The platform also urged states to adopt measures for "direct democracy", including:
The recall election (citizens may remove an elected official before the end of his term)
The referendum (citizens may decide on a law by popular vote)
The initiative (citizens may propose a law by petition and enact it by popular vote)
Judicial recall (when a court declares a law unconstitutional, the citizens may override that ruling by popular vote)
jfern
(5,204 posts)He'd probably get FL, OH, IA, and ME-02 as well.
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)by a lot more than 10,000 votes.