AP calls SD for HRC in major upset!! (Edit)

[Her Sister]

26. NATE SILVER 9:47 PM What Is It About Clinton And South Dakota?

NATE SILVER 9:47 PM
What Is It About Clinton And South Dakota?

A Clinton win in South Dakota, where she’s leading by 6 percentage points so far, wouldn’t count as that big a shock. She narrowly led the only poll there. And she won South Dakota in 2008, even though Barack Obama won all the surrounding states.

But a win there would break the demographic patterns we’re used to seeing, since South Dakota is a predominantly white state that allows independents to vote in its primaries — similar to the states that have gone for Sanders.

Our demographic model had Sanders favored in South Dakota — although, note, it had Obama favored in South Dakota in 2008, so maybe there’s something about the demographics there that are hard to pick up.

One factor could be the Native American population, which is about 9 percent of the state’s population. But that doesn’t seem like a likely reason. Sanders is running well in counties that overlap with Native American reservations. And Sanders won Oklahoma, which also has a large Native American vote.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/june-7-new-jersey-california-primary-presidential-election-2016/