AP calls SD for HRC in major upset!! (Edit)

[book_worm]

Last edited Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:56 PM - Edit history (24)

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/south-dakota

[Peacetrain]

1. wow..that is awesome!!

[Agnosticsherbet]

2. Now 10 points with 15%

[book_worm]

3. Clinton leads by 10 points, with 17% reporting

[William769]

4. Outstanding!

[FloridaBlues]

6. Wow I'm shocked didn't see this coming

[William769]

8. Me either.

[Thinkingabout]

5. She will have more than 2026 pledged delegates tonight, it is hers.

[Her Sister]

9. Yes she will! It is HERS!

Oh mY!!!

[ismnotwasm]

7. Whoa--didn't expect this

awesome!

[book_worm]

10. Clinton leads by 9 points, with 21% reporting.

[book_worm]

11. For me SD is a surprise so far.

I thought it was a Bernie state.

[book_worm]

12. Clinton leads by 10 points, with 27% reporting.

[sheshe2]

13. This takes me by surprise.

A pleasant one.

[book_worm]

14. Clinton leads by 9 points, with 32% reporting

SD is looking to be an upset.

[book_worm]

15. Clinton leads by 8 points, with 39% reporting

[book_worm]

16. Almost all of Rapid City is in and HRC winning by 8

[okasha]

17. A surprise here.

I wonder if we'll see this in ND, too, and how much is due to the NA vote.

[Her Sister]

21. ND open caucus 90% white and less population than SD

SD semi closed primary 85 % white

[book_worm]

18. Getting a little tighter

Clinton leads by 7 points, with 43% reporting

[book_worm]

19. Clinton leads by 8 points, with 46% reporting

Up a bit!

[SaschaHM]

20. Wow. This would be a major upset.

[book_worm]

22. Clinton leads by 8 points, with 49% reporting.

Still a lot of Sioux Falls out.

[book_worm]

23. Per Benchmark: Sanders margins in Minnehaha County make SD too close to call right now

That is Sioux Falls, but still this is closer than I thought it would be.

[book_worm]

24. Clinton leads by 7 points, with 54% reporting

[Her Sister]

25. Thanks for this thread and the updates!

Looking good!!!!

[Her Sister]

26. NATE SILVER 9:47 PM What Is It About Clinton And South Dakota?

NATE SILVER 9:47 PM
What Is It About Clinton And South Dakota?

A Clinton win in South Dakota, where she’s leading by 6 percentage points so far, wouldn’t count as that big a shock. She narrowly led the only poll there. And she won South Dakota in 2008, even though Barack Obama won all the surrounding states.

But a win there would break the demographic patterns we’re used to seeing, since South Dakota is a predominantly white state that allows independents to vote in its primaries — similar to the states that have gone for Sanders.

Our demographic model had Sanders favored in South Dakota — although, note, it had Obama favored in South Dakota in 2008, so maybe there’s something about the demographics there that are hard to pick up.

One factor could be the Native American population, which is about 9 percent of the state’s population. But that doesn’t seem like a likely reason. Sanders is running well in counties that overlap with Native American reservations. And Sanders won Oklahoma, which also has a large Native American vote.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/june-7-new-jersey-california-primary-presidential-election-2016/

[book_worm]

28. I think the native American population has a lot to do with HRC leading.

[BootinUp]

30. Yes, they usually go establishment Dem I think.

[book_worm]

33. well it is an overwhelmingly white state

and Bernie is losing it (so far) which is a surprise. But he did win a caucus!

[book_worm]

27. Clinton leads by 7 points, with 56% reporting

[book_worm]

29. Clinton leads by 7 points, with 59% reporting

Still waiting on Sioux Falls.

[book_worm]

31. Looks like Benchmark is indicating HRC will win SD...

Looks like we will get SD quite wrong - but most others did too. No polling. Congrats Sabato! But we got deadshot accuracy on New Jersey.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol

[spooky3]

32. great news! This will somewhat offset ND.

[book_worm]

34. Benchmark is hedging a bit now...

No - no call on SD yet. Minnehaha could change everything. Clinton has a 90% shot at winning right now but I wouldn't call it yet.

[book_worm]

35. Clinton leads by 7 points, with 62% reporting

Still waiting to make a call due to still a lot of the Sioux Falls vote being out.

[book_worm]

36. A bit closer: Clinton leads by 6 points, with 65% reporting

[book_worm]

37. More from Benchmark:

Only 1500 votes separate Clinton and Sanders in SD, and there are TONS out in Minnehaha. However, Sanders won't make up the gap at this rate

[book_worm]

38. Clinton leads by 6 points, with 67% reporting

[book_worm]

39. Again per Benchmark--playing it safe...

Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol 2m2 minutes ago
1) Sanders has a lot of rural counties only 50% in and 2) Minnehaha still isn't in enough to ensure a safe call.

[book_worm]

40. Tightening a bit: Clinton leads by 5 points, with 68% reporting

[book_worm]

41. Benchmark calls SD for HRC

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol

[book_worm]

42. Clinton leads by 5 points, with 71% reporting

[book_worm]

43. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,011 votes, with 72% reporting.

Getting closer! Hope Benchmark is right about calling it for HRC.

[book_worm]

44. Benchmark may have been premature...

Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol 2m2 minutes ago
Hmmm - Pennington County showed 46/47 precincts reporting. Didn't change precincts but added 1k votes. to Sanders in SD.

[book_worm]

45. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,122 votes, with 74% reporting

[book_worm]

46. Still looking good, but waiting for major news service to call it...

Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,088 votes, with 75% reporting

[book_worm]

47. Gaining a bit! Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,272 votes, with 78% reporting

[book_worm]

48. Still clinging to a 3-pt lead

Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,088 votes, with 80% reporting

[book_worm]

49. A little over half of Sioux Falls in and HRC maintainig a lead.

[book_worm]

50. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,196 votes, with 82% reporting

[LiberalFighter]

51. Then that is likely to end up 10 delegates a piece for them.

[spooky3]

52. hang in there, HRC! Thanks for the updates, book_worm.

[book_worm]

53. All of Sioux Falls is in--HRC won it

[book_worm]

54. Per Benchmark:

Because of an error at the AP, Sanders strongest county went from 99% reporting to 33% reporting. He currently has a +500 margin there 1of2

[spooky3]

59. thanks

[book_worm]

55. Again per Benchmark:

Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol 3m3 minutes ago
Honestly - we would call South Dakota for Clinton but because AP revised numbers, SD numbers are extremely hard to trust right now.

[spooky3]

60. thanks again - I hope she hangs on

I think Sanders will be more likely to quit if she is able to win SD and California. I know the delegate count in SD is irrelevant but I think it's an emotional thing with him - the more it looks like a sweep, the more likely he is going to be to see it's over.

[book_worm]

56. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,406 votes, with 89% reporting.

I think HRC has this.

[book_worm]

57. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,406 votes, with 90% reporting

[spooky3]

58. I wonder why they haven't called it -- can the final few precincts be in Bernie-friendly places?

[vdogg]

61. Benchmark politics retracted their call

Sanders strongest county went from 99% reporting to 33%. There was some screw up by the AP. She probably still has SD but they have to reverify some stuff.

[spooky3]

62. thanks

[book_worm]

63. They really should call SD I think for HRC

Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,457 votes, with 91% reporting

[Number23]

64. How in the WORLD is she beating him in freaking SOUTH DAKOTA???!!

If ever there was a state with demographics that favored Sanders, you would have thought SD would be at the top of the pile.

She should have been happy/proud with a competitive LOSS in South Carolina but to actually be ahead??! It's unreal.

[book_worm]

65. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,386 votes, with 93% reporting

[book_worm]

66. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,308 votes, with 94% reporting.

[book_worm]

67. Clinton leads by 2 points, or 1,193 votes, with 95% reporting

I'm not going to go to bed until they call SD for HRC!!

[Her Sister]

68. Totally with you! Think she'll win by one point! lol!

Hope we win SD!

[Her Sister]

69. Just read another thread! MSNBC called SD for HRC!

Woooohooo! Can go to bed now! You did a great job posting all these updates!!

[book_worm]

70. AP calls it for HRC

[book_worm]

71. Looks like it will be 51-49 for HRC