November consumer prices rose at a 2.7% annual rate, lower than expected, delayed data shows

[progree]

17. That's odd. The shelter index increased 0.2% during the 2 month Sept-Nov period, and 3.0% year-over-year

Last edited Fri Dec 19, 2025, 03:01 AM - Edit history (1)

according to their numbers
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The 2-month shelter increase of 0.2% is right in line with the all items inflation number. The year-over-year shelter is 3.0%, higher than the 2.7% all items number.

So the 2-month increase of 0.2% (an average monthly change of 0.1%) is helping to lower the recent month-over-month all-items CPI numbers from what they've been recently (see below the next line)

but is not helping to pull down the year-over-year all-items CPI number, which was 3.0% in September (a 3% increase in shelter does not pull down a 3% increase in all-items CPI. Other things had to increase less than shelter in order to bring all-items CPI down to 2.7%).

As for recent month-to-month changes, here's the 5 months of shelter month-over-month changes thru September;
0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%

========================================================
Here's something from Yahoo Finance which I take much of the article with a grain of salt, but "interesting", anyway here's what it says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cpi-inflation-print-draws-caution-from-economists-its-hard-to-take-this-data-seriously-164227700.html

“It’s hard to take this data seriously. There was no data collection in October and limited collection in November,” Long ((a Navy Federal Union economist --progree)) said. “A key reason inflation cooled unexpectedly is a big easing in rent costs. That doesn’t match up with private sector data, and it doesn’t pass the 'sniff test' of reasonability.”

Indeed, the cost of housing was one of the categories that was immediately debated following the report’s release. Shelter costs comprise about a third of the index, and the Labor Department said that shelter rose 0.2% between September and November. The overall index rose 3% on an annual basis ((The shelter index YOY increased 3.0% per the cpi.nr0.htm table and narrative below the table, so I guess that's what they mean by "overall index" in this case because it doesn't match the CPI YOY increase -progree)).

“It appears that BLS made a big judgment error in its shelter calculation (effectively assuming 0 in October), leading to inflation understated,” Harvard economist Jason Furman said in a post on X. “It is, however, very unlikely this error was political. If anything the opposite: they stuck to algorithm rather than using judgment.” ((I wonder if Wiz Imp agrees they were this stupid, and did their "algorithm" really put Zero or Zero percent increase in place of missing data? And wouldn't it be political if they knew the algorithm did such a stupid thing and they left it stand that way, knowing that it lowered the numbers (shelter and overall CPI), viva La Trump? --progree))

Inflation would still be cooler without the shelter data, Furman noted, just not by as much. ((true on a 2-month basis compared to previous recent, but not true on a YOY basis as I've explained at length above --progree))

Here's another example of dubiousity or misleadingosity:

Long, the Navy Federal Credit Union economist, said one “big driver” of the lower headline inflation number appeared to be “real”: gas prices, which have continued a steady descent below an average of $3 nationally, reaching their lowest levels in over four years.

According to the narrative in cpi.nr0.htm,

energy prices increased 1.1% over the 2 month period ((so a month-to-month average of 0.55%/month))

Their table happens to have the October and November numbers for gasoline (unlike for energy or other components of energy, strange but true):

Gasoline: Oct: -2.1%, Nov: 3.0% (so a 0.9% increase over 2 months, or an average month-over-month of 0.45%/month)

More mathematically correct over the 2 months: 0.979 * 1.03 = 1.00837, which is a 0.837% 2-month increase before rounding

Over the 12 months:
Energy: +4.2%
  Gasoline: +0.9%
  Fuel oil: +11.3%
  Electricity: +6.9%
  Natural gas: +9.1%

So yeah, a mere 0.9% YOY increase in gasoline prices does help, but still, overall Energy soared 4.2%.

So, yes, Dear Leader is a wonderful gasoline president, but what about fuel oil, electricity, natural gas, and energy overall?