November consumer prices rose at a 2.7% annual rate, lower than expected, delayed data shows

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Published Thu, Dec 18 2025 8:31 AM EST Updated 3 Min Ago


Consumer prices rose less than expected in November, giving investors hope that inflationary pressures may be cooling enough for the U.S. monetary policy to be eased more than Wall Street anticipates.

The consumer price index rose at a 2.7% annualized rate last month, a delayed report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected CPI to have risen 3.1%.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was also cooler than anticipated, increasing 2.6% over 12 months. It was expected to have increased by 3%.



This is the first report that encompasses the period during which the U.S. government was shut down. The stoppage disrupted the data collection process in that time. It also led to the cancellation of the October CPI release. This data was originally expected to be released on Dec. 10.


Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/cpi-inflation-report-november-2025.html

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Article upated.

Original article -

Published Thu, Dec 18 2025 8:31 AM EST Updated 1 Min Ago


Consumer prices rose less than expected in November, giving investors hope that inflationary pressures may be cooling enough for the U.S. monetary policy to be eased more than Wall Street anticipates.

The consumer price index rose at a 2.7% annualized rate last month, a delayed report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected CPI to have risen 3.1%.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was also cooler than anticipated, increasing 2.6% over 12 months. It was expected to have increased by 3%.

This is the first report that encompasses the period during which the U.S. government was shut down. The stoppage disrupted the data collection process in that time. It also led to the cancellation of the October CPI release. This data was originally expected to be released on Dec. 10.

[UpInArms]

1. ...

I don’t believe the report is an accurate representation of reality

[gab13by13]

2. Hmm, both indexes

came in at 0.4% lower than expected.

[quaint]

3. Did they leave out food and utilities?

SCE tells me I did a great job ' cause my usage is 44% lower than my efficient neighbors.
SCE sends me an $87 bill when I'm expecting $50.

$100 would feed me well for ten days, now six (and the vegetables are lousy).

[lostincalifornia]

5. They leave out food and energy in those numbers I believe. The numbers may have also been affected by late

holiday spending, and other distortions that usually come into play at the end of the year during the holiday period.

[progree]

7. No, they are included in the "all items" CPI. It's the CORE CPI that leaves out food and energy.

[lostincalifornia]

9. Thanks, got it.

[progree]

11. Yes, on the holiday stuff -- it's weird as heck

holiday spending, and other distortions that usually come into play at the end of the year during the holiday period.

SA = Seasonally adjusted. NSA= Not Seasonally Adjusted

CPI (SA): It shows a 2 month increase of 0.2%, a 3 month increase of 0.5%, and a 12 month increase of 2.7%

CPI (NSA): It shows a 2 month increase of MINUS 0.2%, a 3 month increase of 0.0%, and a 12 month increase of 2.7%

SA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0

[lostincalifornia]

4. Regardless what the numbers say, the reality is that a hell of a lot of people have been laid off, and while fuel prices

have decreased, that is offset by food prices, both of which aren't included in the numbers.

The consumer confidence numbers are low, and wall street can push whatever bullshit they want, but the disconnect between wall street and main street has never been greater.

People know what they are paying for insurance, food, sundries, healthcare, and other consumer items, and it is significantly more than before trump took office, all while significantly increasing the deficit, which is at historically record levels, adding to our national debt.

The bullshit that his tariffs will pay for everything, ignores the fact that it is THE CONSUMER will be paying for those tariffs, and that has NOT fully worked into the system, and those supposed gains from the tariff revenues are going to be offset by the tax breaks, and other smoke and mirror policies, that are almost never talked about.

When the shit hits the fan, it will make the 2008 and COVID pandemic recessions look like child's play.

The speculation going on with crypto currencies is just one symptom of the dangers being faced. The crypto market is based on nothing except the greater fool theory.

[progree]

8. Food and energy are included in the numbers, except where it says "all items less food and energy"

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

As for energy, it surprised me to read that, per the report, it rose 1.1% during the 2-month period September-November, and that the year-over-year increase was 4.2%.

I'm inclined to agree with the rest of your post. The report is an eye-roller to me.

[lostincalifornia]

10. I think that is affected by the uncertainty of the Ukraine/Russia situation, and I think colder weather may have come

into the picture.

In the likely event that the ACA extended subsidies are not going to happen this year, unless something is done rather quickly to remedy that situation, I think that will have a big impact on these numbers.

[progree]

6. From the source:

This is just the first few paragraphs, I may find some more interesting info as I read further. I split some paragraphs to make it easier to read, and I underlined a few items of higher interest to make them more findable. The bolding is mine too
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. ((The CPI includes food and energy, it's the CORE CPI that excludes these items -progree))

The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November. ((this is the so-called CORE CPI -progree))

From September to November, the index for shelter increased 0.2 percent. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the same 2-month period and the food index increased 0.1 percent. Other indexes which increased over the 2 months ending in November include household furnishings and operations, communication, and personal care. In contrast, the indexes for lodging away from home, recreation, and apparel decreased over the same 2-month period.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending November, after rising 3.0 percent over the 12 months ending September.

The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the last 12 months ((it was 3.0% in the 12 months to September, per the September report --progree)) . The energy index increased 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending November. The food index increased 2.6 percent over the last year.

Look at the tables -- it's a mess I haven't untangled yet (and probably won't)

This is an interesting paragraph from the OP's linked article (emphasis mine):

Because the October CPI was cancelled, Thursday’s report did not have all the usual data points of a typical CPI release. The BLS said it was unable to retroactively collect the October data, but did use some “nonsurvey data sources” to make the index calculations. ((Presumably this didn't affect the November index values, nor the September index values, in which case I don't particularly care -progree))

=====================================================

Here are the data series:
SA=Seasonally adjusted, NSA = NOT Seasonally adjusted

CPI (SA): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0

Core CPI (SA): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

CPI (NSA): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0

CORE CPI (NSA): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E

[gilpo]

12. I call BS on any number coming from this administration

The truth is almost certainly a lot worse than this.

[twodogsbarking]

13. So "things" that were a dollar a year ago aren't even $1.03 now? What are these "things"?

* possibly adjusted for tariff delusions

[PSPS]

14. This is already being panned by economists

From: https://www.ft.com/content/bee83769-fa41-4d18-9dc2-4a46130c72a8

Wall Street’s S&P 500 share index rose 1 per cent in afternoon trading, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.7 per cent — in a fresh bout of volatility for equities. "Markets don’t care [about the data] because the data doesn’t pass the smell test," said Jon Hill, head of US inflation strategy at Barclays.

"Given the lack of explanation about how the BLS made these decisions, it’s hard to take at face value. Because it was such a big miss, and because it’s so hard for the market to take the data literally, investors don’t want to bet the house."

Analysts said the government shutdown distorted the figures. The BLS likely zeroed out some inflation readings for the period when it was unable to collect data, notably in housing costs, which accounts for a third of the headline figure. Black Friday discount deals in late November when surveys restarted may have also skewed readings lower.

Michael Hanson, a senior economist at Wall Street bank JPMorgan, said the lower than expected figures "suggest that the BLS may have held fixed a number of prices it was not able to collect in October, which likely means a material downward bias in the current numbers that will be reversed in coming months as full price collection resumes".

And, of course, all the figures may have been cooked.

[GoodRaisin]

15. So this graph shows that Krasnov lied. He said he would bring prices down.

This shows prices in a flat lining trend since Krasnov took over in 2025.

[somsai]

16. The BLS is a good source

and I think they still give the best possible economic data they are able.

Realize also the largest item of CPI is not rent but what homeowners believe if they had to rent their own house what it would go for. From Google AI....The Consumer Price Index (CPI) weighs homeowner housing costs using Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), which estimates what a homeowner would pay to rent their own home, rather than using mortgage payments or house prices. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys renters of similar properties to determine these imputed rents, reflecting the consumption cost of shelter as an opportunity cost, not an investment. This OER, alongside actual rent, makes up the substantial "shelter" component (around 30% of CPI), giving it significant weight in overall inflation measures.

Rent is falling. Across the country. The falling rent offsets increases in health care, or services generally.

Other than when inflation hit 9% just after the pandemic, and during the Great Resignation, I really don't think inflation is as much a factor as wages. People don't have enough money. Now it's worded as "affordability" which is even more meaningless.

Good news none the less.

[progree]

17. That's odd. The shelter index increased 0.2% during the 2 month Sept-Nov period, and 3.0% year-over-year

according to their numbers
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The 2-month shelter increase of 0.2% is right in line with the all items inflation number. The year-over-year shelter is 3.0%, higher than the 2.7% all items number.

So the 2-month increase of 0.2% (an average monthly change of 0.1%) is helping to lower the recent month-over-month all-items CPI numbers from what they've been recently (see below the next line)

but is not helping to pull down the year-over-year all-items CPI number, which was 3.0% in September (a 3% increase in shelter does not pull down a 3% increase in all-items CPI. Other things had to increase less than shelter in order to bring all-items CPI down to 2.7%).

As for recent month-to-month changes, here's the 5 months of shelter month-over-month changes thru September;
0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%

========================================================
Here's something from Yahoo Finance which I take much of the article with a grain of salt, but "interesting", anyway here's what it says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cpi-inflation-print-draws-caution-from-economists-its-hard-to-take-this-data-seriously-164227700.html

“It’s hard to take this data seriously. There was no data collection in October and limited collection in November,” Long ((a Navy Federal Union economist --progree)) said. “A key reason inflation cooled unexpectedly is a big easing in rent costs. That doesn’t match up with private sector data, and it doesn’t pass the 'sniff test' of reasonability.”

Indeed, the cost of housing was one of the categories that was immediately debated following the report’s release. Shelter costs comprise about a third of the index, and the Labor Department said that shelter rose 0.2% between September and November. The overall index rose 3% on an annual basis ((The shelter index YOY increased 3.0% per the cpi.nr0.htm table and narrative below the table, so I guess that's what they mean by "overall index" in this case because it doesn't match the CPI YOY increase -progree)).

“It appears that BLS made a big judgment error in its shelter calculation (effectively assuming 0 in October), leading to inflation understated,” Harvard economist Jason Furman said in a post on X. “It is, however, very unlikely this error was political. If anything the opposite: they stuck to algorithm rather than using judgment.” ((I wonder if Wiz Imp agrees they were this stupid, and did their "algorithm" really put Zero or Zero percent increase in place of missing data? And wouldn't it be political if they knew the algorithm did such a stupid thing and they left it stand that way, knowing that it lowered the numbers (shelter and overall CPI), viva La Trump? --progree))

Inflation would still be cooler without the shelter data, Furman noted, just not by as much.

Here's another example of dubiousity or misleadingosity:

Long, the Navy Federal Credit Union economist, said one “big driver” of the lower headline inflation number appeared to be “real”: gas prices, which have continued a steady descent below an average of $3 nationally, reaching their lowest levels in over four years.

According to the narrative in cpi.nr0.htm,

energy prices increased 1.1% over the 2 month period ((so a month-to-month average of 0.55%/month))

Their table happens to have the October and November numbers for gasoline (unlike for energy or other components of energy, strange but true):

Gasoline: Oct: -2.1%, Nov: 3.0% (so a 0.9% increase over 2 months, or an average month-over-month of 0.45%/month)

More mathematically correct over the 2 months: 0.979 * 1.03 = 1.00837, which is a 0.837% 2-month increase before rounding

Over the 12 months:
Energy: +4.2%
  Gasoline: +0.9%
  Fuel oil: +11.3%
  Electricity: +6.9%
  Natural gas: +9.1%

So yeah, a mere 0.9% YOY increase in gasoline prices does help, but still, overall Energy soared 4.2%.

So, yes, Dear Leader is a wonderful gasoline president, but what about fuel oil, electricity, natural gas, and energy overall?