Trump's Return Nudges Economists' Inflation Outlook Higher

[SouthBayDem]

Source: Wall Street Journal (gift link)

Economists are starting to model the effects of President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to raise tariffs, cut taxes and restrict immigration. The upshot: Inflation and interest rates are likely to be higher for at least the next two years than forecasters anticipated before the election.

The consumer-price index is now expected to rise 2.7% in December 2025 from a year earlier, according to the average forecast of 73 economists who answered The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey. In October, the panel saw consumer prices rising 2.3% in 2025.

“Risks to inflation and interest rates are to the upside with a Trump administration,” said Augustine Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

For the average household, that higher projected inflation over a full year would equate to about $600 more in costs, based on the latest data on consumer spending.

Read more: https://www.wsj.com/economy/economist-survey-inflation-2025-1fd00467?st=ueV2mq&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink