Trump's Return Nudges Economists' Inflation Outlook Higher

[SouthBayDem]

Source: Wall Street Journal (gift link)

Economists are starting to model the effects of President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to raise tariffs, cut taxes and restrict immigration. The upshot: Inflation and interest rates are likely to be higher for at least the next two years than forecasters anticipated before the election.

The consumer-price index is now expected to rise 2.7% in December 2025 from a year earlier, according to the average forecast of 73 economists who answered The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey. In October, the panel saw consumer prices rising 2.3% in 2025.

“Risks to inflation and interest rates are to the upside with a Trump administration,” said Augustine Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

For the average household, that higher projected inflation over a full year would equate to about $600 more in costs, based on the latest data on consumer spending.

Read more: https://www.wsj.com/economy/economist-survey-inflation-2025-1fd00467?st=ueV2mq&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[lapfog_1]

1. they are waaaaay too conservative

tariffs and deporting millions of workers, taking on more national debt ( if they can find buyers... China isn't doing so great these days ) means both inflation and higher interest rates... both by a huge amount. enough to kill the "soft landing" we navigated through after Covid.

FAFO you stupid rubes in MAGA land.

[OrlandoDem2]

2. Or if he cuts taxes and gooses an already hot economy that Biden is leaving....

That will also cause inflation to increase.

[cstanleytech]

3. Then the morons who voted for Trump will whine even though it's their own fault.

[Vinca]

4. You know it's going to all go to hell when the gold hucksters start appearing on TV again.

[PSPS]

5. Crypto seems to be pushing their pump-and-dump frauds in spades now

Ever since the election, social media is awash in "urgent" messages saying that "now is the time to get into crypto!!111!" A lot of them credit trump's election as the trigger point for a "big return on your investment!!111!" A lot of them are using musk as barker too. They know that what little oversight there is now will be immediately eliminated. A lot of people are going to lose their life savings when they fall prey to these crooks.

[Baron2024]

6. Yep

Prices on imported consumer goods will go through the ceiling.