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Alabama

In reply to the discussion: What are Doug's chances, folks? [View all]

eppur_se_muova

(38,543 posts)
2. It's really, really going to depend on turnout.
Sat Oct 14, 2017, 11:21 AM
Oct 2017

DJ has been campaigning heavily in B'ham, which is sort of a natural for him. It's also the biggest concentration of Dem votes in the state. Jefferson Co., home to B'ham, and the "Black Belt" counties are pretty much a given for a Dem candidate. Moore needs to carry not just his base (and are they ever), but a big chunk of Establishment Repugs who voted for Strange, and maybe some Independents. With Moore lying about payments from his charity and brandishing a pistol in front of a campaign crowd, a good number of those could fail to show up on Election Day. Whether it will be enough -- we'll find out on December 12th.

Polls show Jones behind Moore by 4-12 points, with the average about 8. All are a bit dated, with revelations about Moore's finances coming out afterwards. The "ick" factor could well swing that to a victory for Jones, but not if Dems don't get out and vote their hearts out.

Thanks for your support !

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

You just made his chances better! yallerdawg Oct 2017 #1
It's really, really going to depend on turnout. eppur_se_muova Oct 2017 #2
Turnout is everything GaryCnf Oct 2017 #3
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