What are Doug's chances, folks?

[Duppers]

Realistically?

I live in Virginia but just donated to his campaign.

Fingers and toes are crossed. Hoping for a big Dem turnout.

[yallerdawg]

1. You just made his chances better!

[eppur_se_muova]

2. It's really, really going to depend on turnout.

DJ has been campaigning heavily in B'ham, which is sort of a natural for him. It's also the biggest concentration of Dem votes in the state. Jefferson Co., home to B'ham, and the "Black Belt" counties are pretty much a given for a Dem candidate. Moore needs to carry not just his base (and are they ever), but a big chunk of Establishment Repugs who voted for Strange, and maybe some Independents. With Moore lying about payments from his charity and brandishing a pistol in front of a campaign crowd, a good number of those could fail to show up on Election Day. Whether it will be enough -- we'll find out on December 12th.

Polls show Jones behind Moore by 4-12 points, with the average about 8. All are a bit dated, with revelations about Moore's finances coming out afterwards. The "ick" factor could well swing that to a victory for Jones, but not if Dems don't get out and vote their hearts out.

Thanks for your support !

[GaryCnf]

3. Turnout is everything

Unfortunately, I am seeing far too much of the faulty thinking that cost us last November.

There is an assumption that percentage of vote garnered is a reflection of support in the black community. In other words, when 90%+ of us vote for the Democratic candidate, the conventional wisdom says "Black voters really turned out for Democrats." Because we always vote 90%+ for Democrats, the same conventional wisdom says, "The Democratic Party (and/or Democratic Candidate X) addresses the concerns of black voters." That logic is dead wrong. Because we suffer to a far higher degree than any other demographic when Republicans are elected (and because we understand that elections are basically binary contests) the vast majority of us vote Democratic every time, even if the Democratic candidate is not saying what we want to hear. Speaking from personal experience, we have had a number of Democratic nominees over the past half-century who are IMHO miserable when it comes to racial justice and I have voted for every one of them with no hesitation at all.

What I see us not doing when the Democratic nominee is weak on racial justice is get out and vote. When we don't get out and vote, Democrats lose.

I mention this because while Doug Jones may look like just another old white male Southerner, his record on racial justice is commendable. He has the kind of credibility that allows him to stand up and call out racism in society in general and our criminal justice system in particular and not be dismissed as merely offering platitudes to get our vote. IF he will get out and feature those issues, he will get the kind of turnout in our community that many white Democrats will never get.

In Alabama, black folks make up 25% of the population. If we get a 2008 or even a 2012 turnout, we can win.

I stand with Doug Jones.