Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Are Biden's falling polling numbers due to the Pandemic? [View all]BidenBacker
(1,089 posts)that progressives represent roughly 40-45% of the Democratic Party while non-progressives (conservatives, moderates & liberals) obviously therefore make up 55-60% of all Democrats. This comes from detailed surveys conducted by the excellent Pew Research outfit as well as other sources...ie, not just simple polls but detailed in-depth studies.
This number was borne out in 2016 when Hillary beat Bernie by 55-43%. So the poll numbers you quoted fall right in line with the surveys and the 2016 results. If you scale up 538's numbers to a full 100% then we have Biden at 60.2% and Sanders at 39.8%...again right where you would expect them to be based on the actual makeup of the party.
If anything, Bernie has been underperforming slightly in the primaries to date and that might be because Biden has broader support than Clinton did and some progressives have jumped ship in favor of a more electable candidate who would have broader appeal to the entire electorate as a whole.
Bottomline is that there is a natural ceiling that limits how high Sanders can go and even if the best he can do is losing 55-45% (highly optimistic to say the least) the rest of the way that ain't gonna cut the mustard. Numbers are numbers and none of them trouble me in the least despite the small fluctuations you see from day to day and week to week.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden