2016 Postmortem

DemocratSinceBirth

(101,600 posts)

107. Is this a fair way of looking at it?

Tue Oct 20, 2015, 01:24 PM

Oct 2015

Neither party is held in particularly high esteem with the Republicans hold in slightly lower esteem than the Democrats. This leads to a lot of people identifying them as independents. However when you ask them how they actually vote most independents lean Democratic or Republican and we have a tad bit more of them.

The reasonable inference from that is the number of voters who are truly in play is not large. If folks were swinging from party to party we would have 70%-30% presidential elections and not the close presidential elections we see...Heck, Barack Obama's 6% margin of victory in 08 was hailed as a veritable landslide.

George Bush caused the greatest recession since the Great Depression and got us into two unwinnable wars which one was of choice and his party received 46% of the presidential vote. That illustrates how fixed political opinions are.

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When will the Democratic Party ask itself why it is losing so many members? [View all] artislife Oct 2015 OP

"Moderate" doesn't get people very excited AgingAmerican Oct 2015 #1

when hillary loses the ge restorefreedom Oct 2015 #2

In 2008, my Kucinich voting friends artislife Oct 2015 #3

Yes, I was thinking the as the gop dies out the two party jwirr Oct 2015 #48

the green party has been doing well, as evidenced by all the elections they have been winning still_one Oct 2015 #57

This ^^^^^^ Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Oct 2015 #87

Registered Independents now the largest voting bloc in the country as voters flee both major parties sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #144

Some people register as independent because their state has open primaries, where independents have still_one Oct 2015 #150

Not necessarily. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #161

OK, I stand corrected for the generalization. I was speaking for my state, California, and as I still_one Oct 2015 #164

i think maybe restorefreedom Oct 2015 #123

Bwahahahah. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Oct 2015 #4

+1 daleanime Oct 2015 #95

They think the left has to do all the work artislife Oct 2015 #138

Many will claim that Erich Bloodaxe BSN Oct 2015 #140

^^This artislife Oct 2015 #143

Well said. liberal_at_heart Oct 2015 #145

I certainly hope Progressives start their own party, should the DNC steal the election for Hillary - in_cog_ni_to Oct 2015 #9

Green Party? BlueStateLib Oct 2015 #26

they have been winning elections all over the place still_one Oct 2015 #59

So now that polls show Clinton pulling away, you're pre-emptively calling voter fraud? StrongBad Oct 2015 #27

isn't that amazing. still_one Oct 2015 #61

Yes. And ridiculous. StrongBad Oct 2015 #126

Waht polls? You mean the bogus, Corpoate Owned ABC poll? Bogus. And actually, in_cog_ni_to Oct 2015 #136

We still have to get past the hurdle of the superdelegates - 20% of all delegates........ LongTomH Oct 2015 #44

she has nothing in the bag. restorefreedom Oct 2015 #124

"if the superdelegates try to override the will of the people and tilt the election........." LongTomH Oct 2015 #132

then they better enjoy themselves restorefreedom Oct 2015 #133

Nah, DWS will have work - as a "Democratic Strategist" commentator on Fox Noise. Scuba Oct 2015 #156

then she will fit right in. nt restorefreedom Oct 2015 #157

Indeed. Scuba Oct 2015 #159

Has DWS been involved in stealing elections via reprogramming voting machines? emulatorloo Oct 2015 #62

That's not the solution. If we can't keep control of our own party, we wouldn't be able to keep rhett o rick Oct 2015 #125

Oh For Fuck's Sake! Shark Jump Alert!!!!! Darb Oct 2015 #127

Yep. n/t Dawgs Oct 2015 #22

I don't think she will lose if she wins the primary (I'm a Bernie backer). jalan48 Oct 2015 #41

Earlier this year fredamae Oct 2015 #5

This^^^^twice I have asked my local party leader if there is jwirr Oct 2015 #58

They're clinging to the notion that "Not as bad" is good advertising. Tierra_y_Libertad Oct 2015 #6

AS long as the party big shots are getting rich while losing elections, Doctor_J Oct 2015 #7

Exactly! HooptieWagon Oct 2015 #21

The Dem party is losing members to Bernie? Sheepshank Oct 2015 #8

You know that's not what the OP said. JRLeft Oct 2015 #10

It's the analogy I'd read. And lets be fair, but I did ask for a clarification n/t Sheepshank Oct 2015 #24

Clearly your hatred of Sanders is influencing how you perceive reality Scootaloo Oct 2015 #49

Clearly. frylock Oct 2015 #65

I don't "hate" Sanders. You are very wrong on this. Sheepshank Oct 2015 #71

The party is just losing members artislife Oct 2015 #13

any actual data? Sheepshank Oct 2015 #23

see post 35 artislife Oct 2015 #36

nope, the waxing and waning of registration is THE constant Sheepshank Oct 2015 #74

This story ran yesterday... Fawke Em Oct 2015 #63

Great article artislife Oct 2015 #147

Always twisting the words... SoapBox Oct 2015 #34

nope, didn't twist anything Sheepshank Oct 2015 #76

Bernie is REBUILDING the Democratic Party, by bringing in millions of disaffected pissed-off 99th_Monkey Oct 2015 #68

Bernie is calling Democrats home, the ones that have moved to the suburbs don't want to return. nt Snotcicles Oct 2015 #96

This doesn't jive with the op Sheepshank Oct 2015 #134

so then you may be contradicting the OP. The party isn't losing voters, there's a net gain? Sheepshank Oct 2015 #131

No definitive proof of "millions", but looking at the total number of Registered Dems, etc. 99th_Monkey Oct 2015 #141

thank you for taking the time to put that al together Sheepshank Oct 2015 #148

You're welcome. 99th_Monkey Oct 2015 #149

Seriously, the smaller the Democratic party becomes, the easier it will be to control from within. Baitball Blogger Oct 2015 #11

Exactly right. zeemike Oct 2015 #64

Good post dreamnightwind Oct 2015 #73

First thing would be to reinstate (something like) the Fairness Doctrine and the Equal time act. BlueJazz Oct 2015 #12

This sounds like DU 1.0 cprise Oct 2015 #43

Dems retake lead in party affiliation sufrommich Oct 2015 #14

Precisely... DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #15

Yep. The numbers don't lie. nt sufrommich Oct 2015 #17

... DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #20

see post 35 nt artislife Oct 2015 #38

Are you serious? Dawgs Oct 2015 #28

I will ignore the ad hominems as my stellar character precludes me from DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #31

What ad hominem? You made an incorrect statement and were called out for it.. frylock Oct 2015 #67

Good luck on getting a reasoned response. Dawgs Oct 2015 #84

+1 BeanMusical Oct 2015 #92

Sorry but Independant =/= Swing cprise Oct 2015 #45

The percentage of voters who swing from party to party is relatively small DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #56

For empirical data, look to local/state and also 2014 midterms cprise Oct 2015 #66

That actually confirms my thesis DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #70

Yes. But, ah, you said "our voters" cprise Oct 2015 #88

Two points DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #89

What you *should* do is thank us cprise Oct 2015 #91

And I would like to see the data that supports your claim. zeemike Oct 2015 #78

Accumulated polling data suggests DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #82

No I questioned your conclusions. zeemike Oct 2015 #100

I posted links from Pew and Gallup DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #103

Check post #104. 43% identify as independents as of Jan 2015 PotatoChip Oct 2015 #108

Please see Post 107 DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #109

Again it is your conclusions I question. zeemike Oct 2015 #112

Many are like me and my wife. Fuddnik Oct 2015 #46

"The numbers may not lie, but they don't always tell the real story, either. " Sheepshank Oct 2015 #135

I think what you may be observing is a poll that asked Indies previously surveyed to chose PotatoChip Oct 2015 #104

Is this a fair way of looking at it? DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #107

I don't know if it's fair or not. I'm just presenting another related poll I found interesting. (nt) PotatoChip Oct 2015 #111

This isn't from the data but i suspect some folks hold themselves out as independents DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #114

That certainly could be the case here. (nt) PotatoChip Oct 2015 #117

I vote for the most liberal and electable* Democrat in the primaries DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #118

Me too! Always have. (nt) PotatoChip Oct 2015 #120

I used to live in Seminole County, FL... DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #121

I have never voted for a Republican either. PotatoChip Oct 2015 #130

but .. but ... THAT'S SCIENCE DAMMIT!!! uponit7771 Oct 2015 #99

The problem seems to be lack of education of what Gman Oct 2015 #16

"the only winning move..." antigop Oct 2015 #18

That was a good movie artislife Oct 2015 #153

Seems to me that neutralizing the Dem party forever is their goal. nt Zorra Oct 2015 #19

Too insular for introspection whatchamacallit Oct 2015 #25

Speaking of insularity cprise Oct 2015 #51

Return to working for We the People... 99Forever Oct 2015 #29

The Primary is the Big Sales event, the 2008 primary saw huge gains in registration and turnout Bluenorthwest Oct 2015 #30

Too many leaders are Chamber of Commerce Democrats. earthside Oct 2015 #32

days of democratic party being liberal are done Robbins Oct 2015 #37

A Bernie win would change that cprise Oct 2015 #54

2010 and 2012-historic losses at local, state and federal levels by "electable" Democrats, yet merrily Oct 2015 #33

Interesting graph artislife Oct 2015 #35

I'm the hell out of the Democratic Party sometime next year. SoapBox Oct 2015 #39

I'm out too MissDeeds Oct 2015 #69

Number one: Play fair in the Primary. jwirr Oct 2015 #40

I just did an OP on this, but: Jim Webb was a celebrity rising star in the party 10 years ago Recursion Oct 2015 #42

the middle of the road green917 Oct 2015 #47

Unrec. The Democratic party is growing. That's one of the reason the national move-to-the-left FSogol Oct 2015 #50

The democratic party isn't left Robbins Oct 2015 #52

Hyperbolic nonsense. Polls? Compare our party platform to the GOP's. Ours is progressive. FSogol Oct 2015 #60

"Compared to the GOP." Scootaloo Oct 2015 #72

Neither is tearing the party down in thread after thread because HRC rose in the NH polls. FSogol Oct 2015 #77

I do not worship a political party. Scootaloo Oct 2015 #80

I wasn't talking about you. I'm a member of the Democratic party and will vote for their nominee. FSogol Oct 2015 #83

Really? No matter how far right the party goes you will pick their nominee? Really? n/t Dawgs Oct 2015 #86

Has the Democratic party EVER nominated someone to the right of the GOP (in the last 75 years)? FSogol Oct 2015 #90

Got it and not surprised. Dawgs Oct 2015 #93

Over a year until the election and some on DU are already advocating not voting. FSogol Oct 2015 #97

You talking about me? n/t Dawgs Oct 2015 #101

Why the FUCK are we setting our standards by the GOP? Scootaloo Oct 2015 #106

I've always pushed for progressive candidates, donating or working on campaigns FSogol Oct 2015 #110

We should not use the GOP as our yardstick. Scootaloo Oct 2015 #113

I'm not. Life is about choices. If you select one candidate, you are not selecting another. FSogol Oct 2015 #116

Seriously. Now -there's- a high bar! Jester Messiah Oct 2015 #105

Hillary and Martin and Joe are Made in China? randys1 Oct 2015 #53

They could start by being democratic. zomgitsjesus Oct 2015 #55

Never. It would have to care first. CharlotteVale Oct 2015 #75

We don't have card-carrying members RandySF Oct 2015 #79

This message was self-deleted by its author NCTraveler Oct 2015 #81

NPA in closed primary Florida? hay rick Oct 2015 #152

I don't know if the Democratic Party is net losing members. I know it is losing elections. merrily Oct 2015 #85

The problem is the party's brand is being defined by its deep-pocketed opponents. hay rick Oct 2015 #94

Sanders already answered that last year no? tia uponit7771 Oct 2015 #98

Who declared Bash Your Own Party day? L. Coyote Oct 2015 #102

Bashing Hillary is a losing concern. She is practically untouchable even by Gowdy.... Sheepshank Oct 2015 #139

With 30% of the public identifying with the Democratic party and losing members every year... raindaddy Oct 2015 #115

This message was self-deleted by its author Corruption Inc Oct 2015 #119

The Republican party is also losing members mythology Oct 2015 #122

Is it? According to whom? NurseJackie Oct 2015 #128

good luck getting any actual facts from the OP Sheepshank Oct 2015 #137

Says who? zappaman Oct 2015 #129

Look who is on the rise artislife Oct 2015 #162

The party will never question why it is losing members. It is too busy blaming the voters. liberal_at_heart Oct 2015 #142

Who wants to know? Skidmore Oct 2015 #146

I want to know artislife Oct 2015 #154

When they realize they're turning in to Republicans, and I don't mean the ones Leaving . orpupilofnature57 Oct 2015 #151

"Moderate" doesn't get people very excited AgingAmerican Oct 2015 #155

chart onenote Oct 2015 #158

doesn't seem to support the OP Sheepshank Oct 2015 #163

Maybe by running Democrats for office! That might help....nt Walk away Oct 2015 #160