2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: I think I have a good understanding of why Hillary lost, but what I still don't get [View all]24601
(4,018 posts)a monolithic reason. An individual is the sole judge of their vote criteria. It can be a deep policy analysis or as shallow as not voting for anyone who parts their hair on the right.
Each down-ballot race is unique and had their own reasons - like Bayh losing Indiana because voters judged he had essentially left the state and become a DC area resident.
But for President, I saw several things that had an effect that were unrelated to Russian hacking and Hillary's emails.
The presumed inevitability of Hillary Clinton led to a high degree of complacency which in turn led many to skip voting or feel it was a safe year to cast that vote for Johnson or Stein in an effort to open up the political process to more than the two major parties. I have a relative in his early 30s who posted all kinds of shit in favor of Johnson, explaining after the election that since he knew Hillary would win anyway, he wanted Jonson to reach the thresh hold for future ballot access.
The daily dialog made a number of Trump voters go dark because they didn't want the hassle - so polls were affected.
There was a large anti-establishment vote. It not only hurt Hillary in the General Election but what allowed Trump to prevail in the Primary.
The high degree of negative ads and coverage ultimately made people tone deaf and changed the channels.
While Trump didn't release tax returns, Hillary didn't release paid speeches. It's reasonable to infer that 8 years of a Democratic Administration would have taken legal action if Trump cheated on his taxes and there is a degree of presumed government oversight. But there was no equivalent oversight for the speeches. And neither has a legal requirement for disclosure.
And don't discount Allan Lichtman's13 keys to the White House. He detested Trump but pointed out that he was headed for a win. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/?utm_term=.84e73f36c1e2