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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: In all the "Bernie would have won/No he wouldn't" posts I've read........... [View all]Gothmog
(154,549 posts)127. Bernie Sanders was on the ballot and unperformed Clinton
The premise of the OP is simply false and is not supported by the facts. If independents were such a powerful force in the election then Feingold and other sanders supported candidates would have out performed Clinton.. This is a good article that demonstrates that Sanders would have under performed in the general election https://extranewsfeed.com/bernie-sanders-was-on-the-2016-ballot-and-he-underperformed-hillary-clinton-3b561e8cb779#.jbtsa3epl
Of course, this narrative ignores the facts that despite Clintons supposed flaws, she easily defeated Sanders in the primary via the pledged delegate count, that Sanders inability to convince minority voters doomed his campaign for the nomination, and that the attempt to use superdelegates to override the popular vote was an undemocratic power grab.
And the white workers whose supposed hate for corporate interests led them to vote for Trump? They dont seem upset that Trump has installed three Goldman Sachs executives in his administration. They dont seem to be angry that Trumps cabinet is the wealthiest in US history. And we havent heard any discontent from the white working class over Trump choosing an Exxon Mobil CEO for Secretary of State.
The devil is in the details, and at first glance, it is easy to see why so many people can believe that Bernie actually would have won. He got a great deal of positive media coverage as the underdog early on, especially with Republicans deliberately eschewing attacks on him in favor of attacks on Clinton. His supporters also trended younger and whiter, demographics that tend to be more visible in the media around election time. A highly energized and vocal minority of Sanders supporters dominated social media, helping him win online polls by huge margins.
But at some point, you have to put away the narrative and actually evaluate performance. This happens in sports all the time, especially with hyped up amateur college prospects before they go pro. Big time college players are often surrounded by an aura, a narrative of sorts, which pushes many casual observers to believe their college skills will translate to success on the next level. But professional teams have to evaluate the performance of these amateur players to determine if they can have success as professionals, regardless what the narrative surrounding them in college was. A college player with a lot of hype isnt necessarily going to succeed professionally. In fact, some of the most hyped up prospects have the most underwhelming performances at the next level. In the same vein, we can evaluate Sanders performance in 2016 and determine whether his platform is ready for the next level. Sanders endorsed a plethora of candidates and initiatives across the country, in coastal states and Rust Belt states. He campaigned for these candidates and initiatives because they represented his platform and his vision for the future of the Democratic Party. In essence, Bernie Sanders was on the 2016 ballot. Lets take a look at how he performed.
And the white workers whose supposed hate for corporate interests led them to vote for Trump? They dont seem upset that Trump has installed three Goldman Sachs executives in his administration. They dont seem to be angry that Trumps cabinet is the wealthiest in US history. And we havent heard any discontent from the white working class over Trump choosing an Exxon Mobil CEO for Secretary of State.
The devil is in the details, and at first glance, it is easy to see why so many people can believe that Bernie actually would have won. He got a great deal of positive media coverage as the underdog early on, especially with Republicans deliberately eschewing attacks on him in favor of attacks on Clinton. His supporters also trended younger and whiter, demographics that tend to be more visible in the media around election time. A highly energized and vocal minority of Sanders supporters dominated social media, helping him win online polls by huge margins.
But at some point, you have to put away the narrative and actually evaluate performance. This happens in sports all the time, especially with hyped up amateur college prospects before they go pro. Big time college players are often surrounded by an aura, a narrative of sorts, which pushes many casual observers to believe their college skills will translate to success on the next level. But professional teams have to evaluate the performance of these amateur players to determine if they can have success as professionals, regardless what the narrative surrounding them in college was. A college player with a lot of hype isnt necessarily going to succeed professionally. In fact, some of the most hyped up prospects have the most underwhelming performances at the next level. In the same vein, we can evaluate Sanders performance in 2016 and determine whether his platform is ready for the next level. Sanders endorsed a plethora of candidates and initiatives across the country, in coastal states and Rust Belt states. He campaigned for these candidates and initiatives because they represented his platform and his vision for the future of the Democratic Party. In essence, Bernie Sanders was on the 2016 ballot. Lets take a look at how he performed.
After looking at a number of races where sanders supported candidates under perform Hillary Clinton, that author makes a strong closing
If Sanders is so clearly the future of the Democratic Party, then why is his platform not resonating in diverse blue states like California and Colorado, where the Democratic base resides? Why are his candidates losing in the Rust Belt, where displaced white factory workers are supposed to be sympathetic to his message on trade? The key implication Sanders backers usually point to is that his agenda is supposed to not only energize the Democratic base, but bring over the white working class, which largely skews Republican. Universal healthcare, free college, a national $15 minimum wage, and government controlled prescription drug costs are supposed to be the policies that bring back a white working class that has gone conservative since Democrats passed Civil Rights. Sanders spent $40 million a month during the primary, and was largely visible during the general, pushing his candidates and his agenda across the country. The results were not good specifically in regards to the white working class. The white working class did not turnout for Feingold in Wisconsin, or for universal healthcare in Colorado. Instead, they voted against Bernies platform, and voted for regular big business Republicans.
Why did Sanders underperform Clinton significantly throughout 2016 first in the primaries, and then with his candidates and initiatives in the general? If Sanders platform and candidates had lost, but performed better than Clinton, than that would be an indicator that perhaps he was on to something. If they had actually won, then he could really claim to have momentum. But instead, we saw the opposite result: Sanders platform lost, and lost by much bigger margins than Clinton did. It even lost in states Clinton won big. What does that tell us about the future of the Democratic Party? Well, perhaps we need to acknowledge that the Bernie Sanders platform just isnt as popular as its made out to be.
Why did Sanders underperform Clinton significantly throughout 2016 first in the primaries, and then with his candidates and initiatives in the general? If Sanders platform and candidates had lost, but performed better than Clinton, than that would be an indicator that perhaps he was on to something. If they had actually won, then he could really claim to have momentum. But instead, we saw the opposite result: Sanders platform lost, and lost by much bigger margins than Clinton did. It even lost in states Clinton won big. What does that tell us about the future of the Democratic Party? Well, perhaps we need to acknowledge that the Bernie Sanders platform just isnt as popular as its made out to be.
Trump would have destroyed sanders in a general election contest.
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In all the "Bernie would have won/No he wouldn't" posts I've read........... [View all]
socialist_n_TN
Dec 2016
OP
BULL FUCKIN SHIT !!!! COMEY, Voter Suppression and RUSSIA !! This was NOT a Free and Fair election!!
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#2
The suppositions are useless seeing the same thing would've happened to Sanders or JFK or FDR
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#29
lol... that's like saying, "... yes, the ref tripped the kid with the ball but the kid was too slow
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#45
So Sanders didn't have ANYTHING the GOP could've exploited an blown up out of proportion? tia
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#81
I am not sure what Trump University had to do with Clinton fatigue. Please explain.
Gore1FL
Dec 2016
#111
There were two things that Comey could've used that Clinton didn't but I'll leave that to
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#104
So what as long as its a good dynasty? and the majority of America liked the same cause that
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#80
Not relative to the facts, we could have 8 trillion people who voted the GOP would've
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#30
Not if Cross Check took them off registration !! Does anyone know what they were doing!?!?
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#47
Not with the other 2 factors added in, I'm not buying into the guessing games when the facts
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#56
All 3 factors are fact, I'm not buying into the guessing and RWTP like the DNC didn't stand up
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#62
It's hardly ever a free and fair election. Anybody remember when Netanyahu campaigned for Romney?
NWCorona
Dec 2016
#76
They made up something about Clinton Comey would've made up something about Sanders
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#87
Yeap...Not going to put up with FUD memes... I'm proud I'm aware of these ...
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#105
True, but I knew a lot Rw'ers who actually and surprisingly liked Bernie. They actually said they
The Wielding Truth
Dec 2016
#101
Definitely. The Comey thing was her death knell. I always say this nation has a two week memory and
The Wielding Truth
Dec 2016
#142
Yep. These "if wishes were horses" threads are ridiculous. I've trashed the word
Squinch
Dec 2016
#109
Misinformation, lies, voter suppression, and October revelations are all part of GE game.
aikoaiko
Dec 2016
#191
Can you link and quote where a Comey level announcement, Russia hacking DNC and 41,000
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#193
Well, the Comey letter was substantially less severe than his previous statements
aikoaiko
Dec 2016
#194
I don't blame Silver for not knowing Comey's level of treason or not predicting the level
uponit7771
Dec 2016
#200
Nope, I would have expected a large percentage of Clinton voters.........
socialist_n_TN
Dec 2016
#9
Sanders would have had to bring in all the Clinton voters +10 of the non-voters.
lapucelle
Dec 2016
#120
What you say is true, of course, along with several other reasons he could have won.
Ron Green
Dec 2016
#6
We have to back away from corporate welfare so we can call trump's administration out on it, too.
JudyM
Dec 2016
#13
Non-Dems have always crazily said both parties are alike in their self-serving greed. We are losing
JudyM
Dec 2016
#113
Exactly and that's why I liked Bernie. He didn't use his position to get connected to the trough
NWCorona
Dec 2016
#82
As long as people subscribe to nonsense, there will be people to point it out.
Garrett78
Dec 2016
#98
The more important point is that you're misrepresenting who "independents" are.
Garrett78
Dec 2016
#182
I misrepresented nothing. I made a distinct demarcation between "independents"..........
socialist_n_TN
Dec 2016
#184
Exactly. The GOP, despite their dwindling numbers, know to focus on their base to win.
SunSeeker
Dec 2016
#149
Interesting double standard among some DUers - those who assert Sanders would've lost because
JudyM
Dec 2016
#16
And ironically, so are those who supported and ordained Hillary before the primary season
KPN
Dec 2016
#140
Hardly anything was said about Bernie's rape article, comments about Castro, etc.
Garrett78
Dec 2016
#146
As I've written before, anyone who thinks Trump is a populist is batshit crazy.
Garrett78
Dec 2016
#150
She didn't actually. He had no such qualms, he attacked her character, while echoing and
synergie
Dec 2016
#165
So when the claims fall apart based on facts, deliberate dishonesty is the go to?
synergie
Dec 2016
#176
2106 wasn't all about Russia. Socialism isn't scary to those who can define it.
Gore1FL
Dec 2016
#50
Apparently Hillary didn't have Hillary's ability to build a diverse coalition, either.
Gore1FL
Dec 2016
#51
If Clinton/Kaine was the strongest ticket the Democrats could have put together for 2016 then
Gore1FL
Dec 2016
#97
They would have won if James Comey hadn't broken all precedent and official policy
pnwmom
Dec 2016
#100
You're wrong. "Clinton only got the support of 54% of women -- compared to Obama's 55%."
MadDAsHell
Dec 2016
#119
The fact that Zephyr Teachout lost -- in New York -- kinda kills your theory.
SunSeeker
Dec 2016
#125
Bernie might have beat Trump, mostly from more excitement among white millennials.
Buckeye_Democrat
Dec 2016
#107
That "excitement among millenials" never treanslated into votes, otherwise Hillary woulsn't have
lunamagica
Dec 2016
#108
It's probably good they didn't vote more... since Clinton lost them to Trump. n/t
Buckeye_Democrat
Dec 2016
#112
Yeah, I noticed that Bernie did worse in PA and FL compared to MI and WI.
Buckeye_Democrat
Dec 2016
#124
Independent and discouraged voters who weren't ALLOWED to vote..........
socialist_n_TN
Dec 2016
#118
What states? It was Hillary's base, people of color and women, who couldn't vote.
SunSeeker
Dec 2016
#128
Exactly. The pharma reform initiative Bernie pushed in CA lost, while Hillary won by 30 points.
SunSeeker
Dec 2016
#130
You and others have got to let go of this false narrative regarding "independents."
Garrett78
Dec 2016
#135
A lot of these things that have been said, we'll know about soon.......
socialist_n_TN
Dec 2016
#163
And as time went on after March, Sanders was nothing but a hinderence, a deliberate spoiler.
Lil Missy
Dec 2016
#189