2016 Postmortem

socialist_n_TN

(11,481 posts)

123. I never said he would have gotten all of the Clinton voters..........

Sat Dec 24, 2016, 12:27 PM

Dec 2016

ESPECIALLY if it were a three-way race with Bloomberg in it. I do think that he would have gotten a majority of Clinton voters though and Bloomberg would have gotten the rest. In these days of polarization, I don't think that even Clinton voters would have voted for Trump, so Bloomberg it would have been the next logical choice. Trump would have also gotten less votes because Bloomberg would have taken the establishment Republicans from him.

I do however think that there's a ceiling to third party votes at this time, so Bloomberg would have probably topped out at a maximum of 25%, leaving Trump and Bernie to split the rest of the votes, say 35% each. Bernie gets an extra ten percent discouraged/independent voters and he would have won the popular vote. How the EC would have shook out would take more research than I want to do on a thought experiment. So, as I said, it might still have gone to the House.

And yes there are a lot of suppositions in this. Does Bloomberg actually run if it's Trump and Bernie? In my estimation, probably. Could Bloomberg have gotten on the ballot in all 50 states? Maybe, but for sure in most of them. Is the ceiling of 25% reasonable? Perot got around 20% of the popular vote and 1992 wasn't a year of anti-establishmentarianism, so I think that's reasonable. Would Trump and Bernie split the rest of the votes after Bloomberg took his share? Probably in my estimation, but that is my opinion and I recognize it as such. But I think that overall an extra 10% if discouraged/ independent votes for Bernie would be a reasonable assumption AND would have made him the popular vote winner. And I actually think that Bernie would have taken votes from Trump that Clinton proved incapable of doing. Maybe not a lot, but some anyway.

But my point is NOT really that Bernie could have won a two or a three way election. My point is that there is a bloc of over half of the voting age population that are either discouraged or independent of the two major political parties. And this bloc won't be ignored for long. It's too big to be ignored forever.

Maybe us Trots can win them to an anti-capitalist workers' party and revolution.

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In all the "Bernie would have won/No he wouldn't" posts I've read........... [View all] socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 OP

Thanks for a post that actually considers the possibilities. HassleCat Dec 2016 #1

Yeah, I've noticed that........ socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #12

BULL FUCKIN SHIT !!!! COMEY, Voter Suppression and RUSSIA !! This was NOT a Free and Fair election!! uponit7771 Dec 2016 #2

What he said. shraby Dec 2016 #3

So what are you going to do about that?........ socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #5

Advocate for free and fair elections? uponit7771 Dec 2016 #7

Hey, I'll join you in that............ socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #11

I swear, I'm about ready to join you. Ligyron Dec 2016 #32

Me too! KPN Dec 2016 #37

Funny how everyone hates socialism... Yurovsky Dec 2016 #207

What does that have to do with the OP? nt Gore1FL Dec 2016 #18

The suppositions are useless seeing the same thing would've happened to Sanders or JFK or FDR uponit7771 Dec 2016 #29

I only got to see the election that actually happened. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #33

Lol. Funny but true. KPN Dec 2016 #38

lol... that's like saying, "... yes, the ref tripped the kid with the ball but the kid was too slow uponit7771 Dec 2016 #45

It might have been stopped if the ticket was better. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #52

Exactly WilliamH1474 Dec 2016 #69

So Sanders didn't have ANYTHING the GOP could've exploited an blown up out of proportion? tia uponit7771 Dec 2016 #81

Not to the extent that Clinton did. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #90

This is false on its face .... The university thing was just last year uponit7771 Dec 2016 #103

I am not sure what Trump University had to do with Clinton fatigue. Please explain. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #111

There were a lot of things I liked in both WilliamH1474 Dec 2016 #93

There were two things that Comey could've used that Clinton didn't but I'll leave that to uponit7771 Dec 2016 #104

Yep. And the GOP just bringing it up would have depressed the Dem vote. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #122

So what as long as its a good dynasty? and the majority of America liked the same cause that uponit7771 Dec 2016 #80

Not really. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #89

Nope quakerboy Dec 2016 #102

Nice :) MadDAsHell Dec 2016 #94

Links to actual proof of these charges kcdoug1 Dec 2016 #151

Not making any charges and Clinton's camp isn't not silent on the issue uponit7771 Dec 2016 #153

mmmm Blaming every one and every rumor on your candidate losing kcdoug1 Dec 2016 #154

If you have to ask, you wouln't understand anyway. n/t Lil Missy Dec 2016 #190

I am sure I would understand if it actually made sense relative to the OP Gore1FL Dec 2016 #192

Sure, but more Dem voters would overwhelm the cheats/hacks. Beartracks Dec 2016 #20

Not relative to the facts, we could have 8 trillion people who voted the GOP would've uponit7771 Dec 2016 #30

Spot on! Where's the megaphone? KPN Dec 2016 #40

Not if Cross Check took them off registration !! Does anyone know what they were doing!?!? uponit7771 Dec 2016 #47

And they won by 80,000 votes in 3 States. KPN Dec 2016 #55

Not with the other 2 factors added in, I'm not buying into the guessing games when the facts uponit7771 Dec 2016 #56

Not buying in? Despite the fact that probably millions of more votes KPN Dec 2016 #60

All 3 factors are fact, I'm not buying into the guessing and RWTP like the DNC didn't stand up uponit7771 Dec 2016 #62

Lol. RWTP my ass! KPN Dec 2016 #138

Preach it! dionysus Dec 2016 #158

True shenmue Dec 2016 #46

It's hardly ever a free and fair election. Anybody remember when Netanyahu campaigned for Romney? NWCorona Dec 2016 #76

Comey? sfwriter Dec 2016 #86

They made up something about Clinton Comey would've made up something about Sanders uponit7771 Dec 2016 #87

Reasonable, mature reaction to someone having a different opinion from you. MadDAsHell Dec 2016 #92

Yeap...Not going to put up with FUD memes... I'm proud I'm aware of these ... uponit7771 Dec 2016 #105

True, but I knew a lot Rw'ers who actually and surprisingly liked Bernie. They actually said they The Wielding Truth Dec 2016 #101

Not after Comey and Russia for some with him... Victim blaming sucks uponit7771 Dec 2016 #106

Definitely. The Comey thing was her death knell. I always say this nation has a two week memory and The Wielding Truth Dec 2016 #142

Yep. These "if wishes were horses" threads are ridiculous. I've trashed the word Squinch Dec 2016 #109

Is this post for real or satirization of Hillary can do no wrong crowd? aikoaiko Dec 2016 #187

Nah it's the this was not a free and fair election based on reality crowd uponit7771 Dec 2016 #188

Misinformation, lies, voter suppression, and October revelations are all part of GE game. aikoaiko Dec 2016 #191

Can you link and quote where a Comey level announcement, Russia hacking DNC and 41,000 uponit7771 Dec 2016 #193

Well, the Comey letter was substantially less severe than his previous statements aikoaiko Dec 2016 #194

Nate estimated a net 4 point shift after Comey memo uponit7771 Dec 2016 #196

That's not what he said Nov 6th. Is there a later 538 article? aikoaiko Dec 2016 #197

Yes, link inside dated Dec 11th uponit7771 Dec 2016 #198

He does blame the Comey in tweets after the fact. aikoaiko Dec 2016 #199

I don't blame Silver for not knowing Comey's level of treason or not predicting the level uponit7771 Dec 2016 #200

This assumes that all Clinton voters would have been on board for Sanders. lapucelle Dec 2016 #4

Nope, I would have expected a large percentage of Clinton voters......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #9

IMHO there's no way Bloomberg would have got in. Regardless of what he said NWCorona Dec 2016 #78

Sanders would have had to bring in all the Clinton voters +10 of the non-voters. lapucelle Dec 2016 #120

I never said he would have gotten all of the Clinton voters.......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #123

What you say is true, of course, along with several other reasons he could have won. Ron Green Dec 2016 #6

Sad but true realmirage Dec 2016 #8

DU reflected everything that was wrong with the Democrats in 2016 Gore1FL Dec 2016 #19

What Gore1FL said Plucketeer Dec 2016 #28

It sure seems that way. But I'm not going away. Neither KPN Dec 2016 #41

Sanders approach is the only winning way forward realmirage Dec 2016 #10

We have to back away from corporate welfare so we can call trump's administration out on it, too. JudyM Dec 2016 #13

Exactly. We've become too much like Republicans realmirage Dec 2016 #14

Non-Dems have always crazily said both parties are alike in their self-serving greed. We are losing JudyM Dec 2016 #113

Do you think there's a chance that might happen here at DU? KPN Dec 2016 #42

Exactly and that's why I liked Bernie. He didn't use his position to get connected to the trough NWCorona Dec 2016 #82

Yep, one of the few. Stunning that many don't see that in him. JudyM Dec 2016 #114

Exactly. We used to stand for our values. Now we apologize for them. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #23

You're subscribing to the myth of the "independent" voter. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #15

So it's always that ... we got our heads up our derriers because KPN Dec 2016 #44

As long as people subscribe to nonsense, there will be people to point it out. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #98

Nonsense? Fantasy? Reality based thinking? KPN Dec 2016 #139

No, there are more "independent" Republicans than "independent" Democrats. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #143

The figures I cited were from Gallup from a poll in 2015 (?)......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #161

The more important point is that you're misrepresenting who "independents" are. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #182

I misrepresented nothing. I made a distinct demarcation between "independents".......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #184

You did. This is how you described "independents": Garrett78 Dec 2016 #185

I think you're mistaking polarization for.... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #203

Logical or not, that's the reality. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #205

You make an excellent point. We need to focus on our base. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #144

And drop this false narrative about who "independents" are. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #147

Exactly. The GOP, despite their dwindling numbers, know to focus on their base to win. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #149

Interesting double standard among some DUers - those who assert Sanders would've lost because JudyM Dec 2016 #16

All that has been said a dozen times. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #17

+1000. n/t pnwmom Dec 2016 #22

Yes. radical noodle Dec 2016 #31

Very thoughtful, spot on. brush Dec 2016 #35

THIS. Maven Dec 2016 #53

You all are underestimating the role of populism or, said another way, KPN Dec 2016 #54

This socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #67

nm indeed. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #132

I pulled away after he was out Axolotls Dec 2016 #85

Ah. The drama. The drama. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #134

And ironically, so are those who supported and ordained Hillary before the primary season KPN Dec 2016 #140

Yep. We lost for a lot of reasons. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #145

Trump exemplifies, "hard work. Not a wave of the celebrity wand?" immoderate Dec 2016 #202

You are underestimating reality. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #131

You are living in your own false reality. KPN Dec 2016 #141

Hardly anything was said about Bernie's rape article, comments about Castro, etc. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #146

Your opinion only. KPN Dec 2016 #170

You do not have facts on your side. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #148

As I've written before, anyone who thinks Trump is a populist is batshit crazy. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #150

But a lot of people Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #156

Can't argue with that. But populism is what elected him. KPN Dec 2016 #168

As long as that uninformed belief is yours Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #179

Spare me the psychological drivel. KPN Dec 2016 #169

Whoa. Sorry I touched a nerve. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #178

I had several problems with Bernie myself...... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #65

Let me hear your problems with Bernie Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #136

My problems with Bernie? Firstly, HE WASN'T A SOCIALIST!!!!!!!... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #162

We will disagree it seems. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #167

One way or another, EVERY thing that you mentioned in your...... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #181

If you want to redefine Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #186

Liberals ARE the establishment......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #201

This guy has a hammer, see? Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #206

Given the numerous real skeletons in his closet, duffyduff Dec 2016 #77

What skeletons are those? NWCorona Dec 2016 #84

My two cents NWCorona Dec 2016 #83

Here's your change. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #137

Hillary had her surrogates trash Bernie NWCorona Dec 2016 #155

Tell yourself whatever you need Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #157

What's that saying about when you assume? NWCorona Dec 2016 #160

It's hard to follow your inconsistency. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #166

I jump from one side to the other because I respect both Hillary and Bernie NWCorona Dec 2016 #172

She didn't actually. He had no such qualms, he attacked her character, while echoing and synergie Dec 2016 #165

Brock said that it appears that black lives don't matter to Bernie NWCorona Dec 2016 #171

The facts do not support you on any point. synergie Dec 2016 #174

So are you saying that black lives don't matter to Bernie? NWCorona Dec 2016 #175

So when the claims fall apart based on facts, deliberate dishonesty is the go to? synergie Dec 2016 #176

Hardly. You seem to be justifying Brocks statement and I'd like NWCorona Dec 2016 #177

Why do you think Russia, Comey, et all would have let ANY Democrat pnwmom Dec 2016 #21

The dynamic would have been different. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #25

No, because Russia wanted their puppet DT. Bernie would NOT have fit the bill. pnwmom Dec 2016 #36

2106 wasn't all about Russia. Socialism isn't scary to those who can define it. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #50

Everything you are arguing is based on speculation about an untested candidate pnwmom Dec 2016 #58

Like Michigan? nt Gore1FL Dec 2016 #71

You do realize, right, that pointing to the exception only proves the rule? Garrett78 Dec 2016 #99

Yes, he did well in Michigan. What other diverse primaries? n/t pnwmom Dec 2016 #73

Of course they wouldn't. Trump was in the bag for Russia before he even KPN Dec 2016 #48

Don't you think that Bernie "would" have won if he "could" have won? world wide wally Dec 2016 #24

He didn't run. He supported the Democratic nominee. nt Gore1FL Dec 2016 #26

He waited till the convention to support her. Up till then, he was pnwmom Dec 2016 #39

Apparently Hillary didn't have Hillary's ability to build a diverse coalition, either. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #51

She did. She won 3 million more votes than DT, pnwmom Dec 2016 #57

Unfortunately, popular vote is not how presidential elections work in the U.S. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #70

And the primary loser doesn't get to be proclaimed the real winner. pnwmom Dec 2016 #75

No one made that claim. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #88

She was the stronger ticket. The fact that he could have possibly carried pnwmom Dec 2016 #91

If Clinton/Kaine was the strongest ticket the Democrats could have put together for 2016 then Gore1FL Dec 2016 #97

They would have won if James Comey hadn't broken all precedent and official policy pnwmom Dec 2016 #100

Maybe, maybe not. That, too, is speculation. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #110

Post removed Post removed Dec 2016 #27

Bernie was never tested in the general election. It's easy for his supporters pnwmom Dec 2016 #43

Women weren't even particularly enthusiastic backers of Clinton. MadDAsHell Dec 2016 #95

No. And she got almost 3 million more votes than DT -- but not enough pnwmom Dec 2016 #96

You're wrong. "Clinton only got the support of 54% of women -- compared to Obama's 55%." MadDAsHell Dec 2016 #119

You're wrong if you think exit polls are precise within one percentage point. pnwmom Dec 2016 #121

Exactly! KPN Dec 2016 #34

Bernie ran an insurgent campaign bucolic_frolic Dec 2016 #49

Yup. Kick and Rec eom Arazi Dec 2016 #59

I see it differently. I welcome a progressive wing. LisaM Dec 2016 #61

A few things here after reading all of the posts socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #63

The fact that Zephyr Teachout lost -- in New York -- kinda kills your theory. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #125

If they want to have something to do with treestar Dec 2016 #64

I'm sure the Whigs felt that way about their position on slavery...... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #66

He sucked at pulling in liquid diamond Dec 2016 #68

Bloomberg would have evenly split from both parties. Exilednight Dec 2016 #72

Bernie would not have won outside of Vermont. duffyduff Dec 2016 #74

If he was able to bring ... NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #79

"If he was able to bring... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #115

Poor Bernie ... NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #152

Bernie might have beat Trump, mostly from more excitement among white millennials. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #107

That "excitement among millenials" never treanslated into votes, otherwise Hillary woulsn't have lunamagica Dec 2016 #108

It's probably good they didn't vote more... since Clinton lost them to Trump. n/t Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #112

In most Democratic primaries, you had to be registered as......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #117

Yeah, I noticed that Bernie did worse in PA and FL compared to MI and WI. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #124

We will never know ismnotwasm Dec 2016 #116

Independent and discouraged voters who weren't ALLOWED to vote.......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #118

Clinton won more open primary states than Sanders. lapucelle Dec 2016 #126

Wisconsin? Michigan? Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #133

What states? It was Hillary's base, people of color and women, who couldn't vote. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #128

Sanders got less than 43% of the vote in the primaries Gothmog Dec 2016 #129

Bernie Sanders was on the ballot and unperformed Clinton Gothmog Dec 2016 #127

Exactly. The pharma reform initiative Bernie pushed in CA lost, while Hillary won by 30 points. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #130

You and others have got to let go of this false narrative regarding "independents." Garrett78 Dec 2016 #135

Oh look what I found in this thread, about Democrats. betsuni Dec 2016 #159

A lot of these things that have been said, we'll know about soon....... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #163

LOL! betsuni Dec 2016 #164

Reaganism is a dogma that is never disavowed by Democratic candidates. immoderate Dec 2016 #204

Exactly!!!!!!!!!!! socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #208

Why would those that live an easy life rock the boat? Rex Dec 2016 #173

But he lost. Democrats wanted a Democrat. Lil Missy Dec 2016 #180

If not for caucuses, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #183

And as time went on after March, Sanders was nothing but a hinderence, a deliberate spoiler. Lil Missy Dec 2016 #189

Sure, but we as a party weren't going to take that chance. Orsino Dec 2016 #195