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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: No. Bernie Sanders would not have beaten Trump [View all]Gothmog
(158,089 posts)126. Sanders was on the ballot and underpreformed Clinton
This is a good article that demonstrates that Sanders would have under performed in the general election https://extranewsfeed.com/bernie-sanders-was-on-the-2016-ballot-and-he-underperformed-hillary-clinton-3b561e8cb779#.jbtsa3epl
Of course, this narrative ignores the facts that despite Clintons supposed flaws, she easily defeated Sanders in the primary via the pledged delegate count, that Sanders inability to convince minority voters doomed his campaign for the nomination, and that the attempt to use superdelegates to override the popular vote was an undemocratic power grab.
And the white workers whose supposed hate for corporate interests led them to vote for Trump? They dont seem upset that Trump has installed three Goldman Sachs executives in his administration. They dont seem to be angry that Trumps cabinet is the wealthiest in US history. And we havent heard any discontent from the white working class over Trump choosing an Exxon Mobil CEO for Secretary of State.
The devil is in the details, and at first glance, it is easy to see why so many people can believe that Bernie actually would have won. He got a great deal of positive media coverage as the underdog early on, especially with Republicans deliberately eschewing attacks on him in favor of attacks on Clinton. His supporters also trended younger and whiter, demographics that tend to be more visible in the media around election time. A highly energized and vocal minority of Sanders supporters dominated social media, helping him win online polls by huge margins.
But at some point, you have to put away the narrative and actually evaluate performance. This happens in sports all the time, especially with hyped up amateur college prospects before they go pro. Big time college players are often surrounded by an aura, a narrative of sorts, which pushes many casual observers to believe their college skills will translate to success on the next level. But professional teams have to evaluate the performance of these amateur players to determine if they can have success as professionals, regardless what the narrative surrounding them in college was. A college player with a lot of hype isnt necessarily going to succeed professionally. In fact, some of the most hyped up prospects have the most underwhelming performances at the next level. In the same vein, we can evaluate Sanders performance in 2016 and determine whether his platform is ready for the next level. Sanders endorsed a plethora of candidates and initiatives across the country, in coastal states and Rust Belt states. He campaigned for these candidates and initiatives because they represented his platform and his vision for the future of the Democratic Party. In essence, Bernie Sanders was on the 2016 ballot. Lets take a look at how he performed.
And the white workers whose supposed hate for corporate interests led them to vote for Trump? They dont seem upset that Trump has installed three Goldman Sachs executives in his administration. They dont seem to be angry that Trumps cabinet is the wealthiest in US history. And we havent heard any discontent from the white working class over Trump choosing an Exxon Mobil CEO for Secretary of State.
The devil is in the details, and at first glance, it is easy to see why so many people can believe that Bernie actually would have won. He got a great deal of positive media coverage as the underdog early on, especially with Republicans deliberately eschewing attacks on him in favor of attacks on Clinton. His supporters also trended younger and whiter, demographics that tend to be more visible in the media around election time. A highly energized and vocal minority of Sanders supporters dominated social media, helping him win online polls by huge margins.
But at some point, you have to put away the narrative and actually evaluate performance. This happens in sports all the time, especially with hyped up amateur college prospects before they go pro. Big time college players are often surrounded by an aura, a narrative of sorts, which pushes many casual observers to believe their college skills will translate to success on the next level. But professional teams have to evaluate the performance of these amateur players to determine if they can have success as professionals, regardless what the narrative surrounding them in college was. A college player with a lot of hype isnt necessarily going to succeed professionally. In fact, some of the most hyped up prospects have the most underwhelming performances at the next level. In the same vein, we can evaluate Sanders performance in 2016 and determine whether his platform is ready for the next level. Sanders endorsed a plethora of candidates and initiatives across the country, in coastal states and Rust Belt states. He campaigned for these candidates and initiatives because they represented his platform and his vision for the future of the Democratic Party. In essence, Bernie Sanders was on the 2016 ballot. Lets take a look at how he performed.
After looking at a number of races where sanders supported candidates under perform Hillary Clinton, that author makes a strong closing
If Sanders is so clearly the future of the Democratic Party, then why is his platform not resonating in diverse blue states like California and Colorado, where the Democratic base resides? Why are his candidates losing in the Rust Belt, where displaced white factory workers are supposed to be sympathetic to his message on trade? The key implication Sanders backers usually point to is that his agenda is supposed to not only energize the Democratic base, but bring over the white working class, which largely skews Republican. Universal healthcare, free college, a national $15 minimum wage, and government controlled prescription drug costs are supposed to be the policies that bring back a white working class that has gone conservative since Democrats passed Civil Rights. Sanders spent $40 million a month during the primary, and was largely visible during the general, pushing his candidates and his agenda across the country. The results were not good specifically in regards to the white working class. The white working class did not turnout for Feingold in Wisconsin, or for universal healthcare in Colorado. Instead, they voted against Bernies platform, and voted for regular big business Republicans.
Why did Sanders underperform Clinton significantly throughout 2016 first in the primaries, and then with his candidates and initiatives in the general? If Sanders platform and candidates had lost, but performed better than Clinton, than that would be an indicator that perhaps he was on to something. If they had actually won, then he could really claim to have momentum. But instead, we saw the opposite result: Sanders platform lost, and lost by much bigger margins than Clinton did. It even lost in states Clinton won big. What does that tell us about the future of the Democratic Party? Well, perhaps we need to acknowledge that the Bernie Sanders platform just isnt as popular as its made out to be.
Why did Sanders underperform Clinton significantly throughout 2016 first in the primaries, and then with his candidates and initiatives in the general? If Sanders platform and candidates had lost, but performed better than Clinton, than that would be an indicator that perhaps he was on to something. If they had actually won, then he could really claim to have momentum. But instead, we saw the opposite result: Sanders platform lost, and lost by much bigger margins than Clinton did. It even lost in states Clinton won big. What does that tell us about the future of the Democratic Party? Well, perhaps we need to acknowledge that the Bernie Sanders platform just isnt as popular as its made out to be.
Trump would have destroyed sanders in a general election contest.
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I am willing to entertain the notion that both of them would have been weak candidates in the
RDANGELO
Dec 2016
#1
all candidates are flawed - the party that nominates the more charismatic candidate wins.
NewJeffCT
Dec 2016
#60
Don't forget JFK & Nixon. The polls suggested that those who "listened" to the first
jonno99
Dec 2016
#155
They have no problem with Trump's Goldman Sachs cabinet so why would they vote Bernie?
bravenak
Dec 2016
#12
Except none of those "populist" DT voters care that he's putting all these Goldman Sachs
pnwmom
Dec 2016
#142
I think it will be easy to beat Trump in 2020 if the asshole is still in office
mtnsnake
Dec 2016
#56
At best it is a liberal site that reports with a bias and often omits facts
etherealtruth
Dec 2016
#197
Sorry, I thought the article made sense, but I didn't know they were fake news
mtnsnake
Dec 2016
#48
an op is not a response. How the fuck can you tell at this point who the originator and who the
JCanete
Dec 2016
#186
Bernie would have won. The DNC slowed his momentum by delaying the debates.
virtualobserver
Dec 2016
#15
the polls are not perfect, but I'd rather go with the candidate with the double digit lead.....
virtualobserver
Dec 2016
#27
Sanders would have handled it. He would have made Trump look like a fool.
virtualobserver
Dec 2016
#41
And any intelligent campaign knows it must win a primary first to even think about a general
bravenak
Dec 2016
#78
He could never win without the south. The black vote. How was he going to get that?
bravenak
Dec 2016
#91
He didn't have to win the south. He just had to do better in the south, and everywhere else.
virtualobserver
Dec 2016
#98
You think that we would have just voted for him because he got momentum from NH?
bravenak
Dec 2016
#117
Where is your evidence that enough of us would have switched to the guy who called our
bravenak
Dec 2016
#149
The point is that neither of our positions can be proven to be correct
virtualobserver
Dec 2016
#160
No shit. He really fucked shit up. It's like handing it off to a mean ass six year old.
bravenak
Dec 2016
#173
next to the reality of Trump....any "huge file" would have had no impact.
virtualobserver
Dec 2016
#75
There was no doubt some cross over by GOP types to mess up the nomination process
Gothmog
Dec 2016
#118
She still did not need them to be way way way past him in delegate totals so....
bravenak
Dec 2016
#33
Super delegates would have supported Bernie if he had been leading in pledged delegates
tammywammy
Dec 2016
#38
You are using facts against a silly talking point that has no basis in reality
Gothmog
Dec 2016
#116
Super delegates did not come into play because sanders only got 43% of primary popular vote
Gothmog
Dec 2016
#40
Hillary had astronomical unfavorable ratings for a Presidential candidate.
Hassin Bin Sober
Dec 2016
#100
They showed her within margin of error with tRump, which is where she ended up. They showed
JudyM
Dec 2016
#167
Ha! Doesn't matter, they were 10points beyond the MOE, consistently. That many more likely
JudyM
Dec 2016
#175
People throwing around absolutes really need to stop. We will never know. Get over it
NWCorona
Dec 2016
#137
I would never say he gave up but he did move resources else where but by that point
NWCorona
Dec 2016
#172
I just wonder how Bernie would have responded when Comey opened an investigation of his ties
world wide wally
Dec 2016
#146
This thread brought to you by the people who said Clinton would win in a landslide. nt
Gore1FL
Dec 2016
#150
I had my concerns all the way through due to the voter rejection of political dynasties.
Gore1FL
Dec 2016
#168
Sanders' message was clearly rejected. The 70,000-something people spread over
R B Garr
Dec 2016
#180
If you say so. I don't recall him runnning in the general election to know if he was rejected.
Gore1FL
Dec 2016
#192
Those 70,000-something didn't vote for a lot of people where were not running besides Sanders.
Gore1FL
Dec 2016
#198
I believe that Bernie would have won. But, the election is over and Trump won.
DemocraticWing
Dec 2016
#176
Agreed, brave! I guess it bears repeating until the fantasyland relating to him
R B Garr
Dec 2016
#181