2016 Postmortem

Gothmog

(154,470 posts)

30. These polls were totally meaningless in the real world

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 03:15 PM

Dec 2016

Here is a good thread talking about these polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511038010

The reliance on these polls by Sanders supporters amuse me. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/

Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.

Sanders supporters have to rely on these worthless polls because it is clear that Sanders is not viable in a general election where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend an additional billion dollars.

No one should rely on hypo match up type polls in selecting a nominee.

Sanders was not closed to being vetted and would have been destroyed by Trump

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No. Bernie Sanders would not have beaten Trump [View all] bravenak Dec 2016 OP

I am willing to entertain the notion that both of them would have been weak candidates in the RDANGELO Dec 2016 #1

I can get with that idea bravenak Dec 2016 #3

Nobody trusted her but 66 some million voters, nearly 3 million more than Trump brush Dec 2016 #53

+1. n/t pnwmom Dec 2016 #136

all candidates are flawed - the party that nominates the more charismatic candidate wins. NewJeffCT Dec 2016 #60

Don't forget JFK & Nixon. The polls suggested that those who "listened" to the first jonno99 Dec 2016 #155

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2016 #2

And long term reliable members rejected him bravenak Dec 2016 #5

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2016 #7

I am a millennial and I am a longterm reliable voter bravenak Dec 2016 #11

Speak on it!!!!!! Tarheel_Dem Dec 2016 #23

Boy, these people, lol bravenak Dec 2016 #29

scream it. mopinko Dec 2016 #51

Brava! sheshe2 Dec 2016 #103

This post is so profound. liquid diamond Dec 2016 #204

I agree; it's unfair of them to expect treestar Dec 2016 #32

Yes!!! bravenak Dec 2016 #36

Conversely... Else You Are Mad Dec 2016 #4

It was more popular than Bernies and slightly less popular than Obama's bravenak Dec 2016 #6

We do not know that. Else You Are Mad Dec 2016 #8

They have no problem with Trump's Goldman Sachs cabinet so why would they vote Bernie? bravenak Dec 2016 #12

Except none of those "populist" DT voters care that he's putting all these Goldman Sachs pnwmom Dec 2016 #142

According to this, Sanders would have crushed Trump mtnsnake Dec 2016 #9

Us uncut is fake new imo bravenak Dec 2016 #13

What is fake about that analsyis? mtnsnake Dec 2016 #19

They have been reporting bullshit for months. I won't read them anymore. bravenak Dec 2016 #20

I'll take your word for it, bravenak mtnsnake Dec 2016 #44

I think nobody would have beaten Trump except Obama bravenak Dec 2016 #47

I think it will be easy to beat Trump in 2020 if the asshole is still in office mtnsnake Dec 2016 #56

I want Corey Booker to run, I really like his personality bravenak Dec 2016 #58

I never thought of them as a team even though they both top my list mtnsnake Dec 2016 #62

Either way they work it I will work my ass off bravenak Dec 2016 #66

I like them both mcar Dec 2016 #69

Love her bravenak Dec 2016 #79

Good for you bravenak. sheshe2 Dec 2016 #105

Her opponent was a shithead bravenak Dec 2016 #107

Yup... sheshe2 Dec 2016 #113

US Uncut is not fake news. Mr. Evil Dec 2016 #163

I said imo. In my opinion bravenak Dec 2016 #164

At best it is a liberal site that reports with a bias and often omits facts etherealtruth Dec 2016 #197

Fake news... revmclaren Dec 2016 #17

What exactly is fake about that article? mtnsnake Dec 2016 #21

I could say prove to me its true revmclaren Dec 2016 #25

Just as I thought. You couldn't come up with anything. mtnsnake Dec 2016 #34

dont have to prove anything to someone revmclaren Dec 2016 #95

same here mtnsnake Dec 2016 #102

USuncut? Really? Come on snake. Tarheel_Dem Dec 2016 #28

Sorry, I thought the article made sense, but I didn't know they were fake news mtnsnake Dec 2016 #48

There's no way to know that. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #10

When people stop lying and saying Sanders would hav crushed it bravenak Dec 2016 #14

How is it a lie? TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #73

Because Sanders had not enough appeal to the democratic base bravenak Dec 2016 #76

The EC is the system that is in place. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #84

I never said she was going to be. Have fun beating yr strawmen bravenak Dec 2016 #85

You, too - your dead horse. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #88

an op is not a response. How the fuck can you tell at this point who the originator and who the JCanete Dec 2016 #186

Chill bravenak Dec 2016 #188

Bernie would have won. The DNC slowed his momentum by delaying the debates. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #15

Bullshit. He lost the debates bravenak Dec 2016 #16

His poll numbers steadily rose. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #18

Poll! Yay! Because polls were SPOT ON! Lol bravenak Dec 2016 #22

the polls are not perfect, but I'd rather go with the candidate with the double digit lead..... virtualobserver Dec 2016 #27

Sanders not vetted and was treated with kid gloves in the primaries Gothmog Dec 2016 #35

Sanders would have handled it. He would have made Trump look like a fool. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #41

Trump had a ton of good oppo on Sanders that would have killed him Gothmog Dec 2016 #123

nonsense virtualobserver Dec 2016 #140

THIS we can do it Dec 2016 #195

These polls were totally meaningless in the real world Gothmog Dec 2016 #30

Going with your candidate brought us Trump...that isn't hypothetical. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #37

And so was the man Clinton beat. bravenak Dec 2016 #43

In some states he did appeal to black voters. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #52

Ignoring the actual voters is how you lose bravenak Dec 2016 #54

A Hillary nomination brought us Trump. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #64

No. The electoral college brought us Trump bravenak Dec 2016 #67

Any intelligent campaign knows that it has to win the electoral vote virtualobserver Dec 2016 #72

And any intelligent campaign knows it must win a primary first to even think about a general bravenak Dec 2016 #78

the DNC delayed the debates to keep people from gaining momentum virtualobserver Dec 2016 #89

He could never win without the south. The black vote. How was he going to get that? bravenak Dec 2016 #91

He didn't have to win the south. He just had to do better in the south, and everywhere else. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #98

To win the primary he needed some of those southern states bravenak Dec 2016 #99

he didn't lose NH, and momentum is everything virtualobserver Dec 2016 #110

You think that we would have just voted for him because he got momentum from NH? bravenak Dec 2016 #117

It isn't about "following"...momentum makes the case for viability. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #133

Why. Would we have switched just because he won the two whitest states? bravenak Dec 2016 #135

you speak of this monolithic "we".... virtualobserver Dec 2016 #143

Not enough bravenak Dec 2016 #144

I disagree virtualobserver Dec 2016 #147

Where is your evidence that enough of us would have switched to the guy who called our bravenak Dec 2016 #149

where is your evidence that people wouldn't have? virtualobserver Dec 2016 #153

Impossible to prove a negative. Illogical too. bravenak Dec 2016 #156

The point is that neither of our positions can be proven to be correct virtualobserver Dec 2016 #160

Very true bravenak Dec 2016 #162

and we both have to live with Trump. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #165

I will be crying bravenak Dec 2016 #166

I agree..... virtualobserver Dec 2016 #169

No shit. He really fucked shit up. It's like handing it off to a mean ass six year old. bravenak Dec 2016 #173

Iowa and New Hampshire are two 90%+ white states Gothmog Dec 2016 #122

Where did HRC win in the South Lonusca Dec 2016 #200

Doesn't make sense treestar Dec 2016 #39

Bernie would have won independents. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #45

No surmise the Democratic party did not treestar Dec 2016 #46

I wasn't counting on anything. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #55

I don't even know what that means treestar Dec 2016 #61

He was completely unvetted mcar Dec 2016 #71

next to the reality of Trump....any "huge file" would have had no impact. virtualobserver Dec 2016 #75

That makes no sense mcar Dec 2016 #80

your "huge file" on Bernie is in your imagination virtualobserver Dec 2016 #93

Wrong mcar Dec 2016 #157

Most of Sanders so-called victories were in caucus states Gothmog Dec 2016 #24

I agree bravenak Dec 2016 #31

Michigan was also an open primary NewJeffCT Dec 2016 #63

There was no doubt some cross over by GOP types to mess up the nomination process Gothmog Dec 2016 #118

I agree bravenak Dec 2016 #177

I bet to differ... Joe941 Dec 2016 #26

She still did not need them to be way way way past him in delegate totals so.... bravenak Dec 2016 #33

Super delegates would have supported Bernie if he had been leading in pledged delegates tammywammy Dec 2016 #38

You are using facts against a silly talking point that has no basis in reality Gothmog Dec 2016 #116

Super delegates did not come into play because sanders only got 43% of primary popular vote Gothmog Dec 2016 #40

The point is when the news... Joe941 Dec 2016 #42

That did not happen in the real world Gothmog Dec 2016 #115

I disagree with your logic... Joe941 Dec 2016 #128

I was a delegate to the national convention Gothmog Dec 2016 #139

Fans of Obama and Edwards also said that 2008 was rigged NewJeffCT Dec 2016 #65

as our new President often says "WRONG" bowens43 Dec 2016 #49

He's not my fucking President bravenak Dec 2016 #50

quoting trump revmclaren Dec 2016 #109

Yup, he would have easily won Arazi Dec 2016 #57

Without minority voters feeling enthused? Yeah right bravenak Dec 2016 #59

That didn't really work out for Hillary either. progressoid Dec 2016 #70

And less than with any candidate besides obama. Remember that bravenak Dec 2016 #81

And the Latino vote? progressoid Dec 2016 #94

She got the majority of it. Check the numbers bravenak Dec 2016 #97

But it was still a drop from 4 years ago. progressoid Dec 2016 #108

They only voted so high for dems because of obama. The way people act now bravenak Dec 2016 #119

He would not have won mcar Dec 2016 #68

You are so right bravenak Dec 2016 #83

And yet it's claimed over and over here mcar Dec 2016 #87

I am super bored with it bravenak Dec 2016 #92

Me too mcar Dec 2016 #158

This wasn't about platforms. iscooterliberally Dec 2016 #74

Do whatever you need to deflect attention from your loss. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #77

My loss? Did you somehow win while the rest of us lost bigly? bravenak Dec 2016 #82

You don't seem to be able to accept it. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #86

More strawmen to abuse. I never said any of that or wished anything here bravenak Dec 2016 #90

My anger has passed. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #130

You a mind reader too? bravenak Dec 2016 #131

People don't generally comment about this, but... Mike Nelson Dec 2016 #96

Absolutely bravenak Dec 2016 #101

Hillary had astronomical unfavorable ratings for a Presidential candidate. Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2016 #100

When are you going to layoff Bernie Sanders, bravenak? Chasstev365 Dec 2016 #104

Ask huffpo bravenak Dec 2016 #106

He would have won handily. Deal with it. Schema Thing Dec 2016 #111

I have accepted he would have lost. You should accept that he did. Handily. bravenak Dec 2016 #114

Excellent article, bravenak. sheshe2 Dec 2016 #112

Thank you bravenak Dec 2016 #120

Backatcha. sheshe2 Dec 2016 #121

I think he could've oberliner Dec 2016 #124

He would have gone full blown stormfront on Bernie bravenak Dec 2016 #125

Yes, it would have been ugly oberliner Dec 2016 #127

Sanders was on the ballot and underpreformed Clinton Gothmog Dec 2016 #126

We would have lost forty states bravenak Dec 2016 #134

I agree Gothmog Dec 2016 #203

Bravenak you are dead wrong TaterBake Dec 2016 #129

Polls, yay!! They were so perfect!! Lol bravenak Dec 2016 #132

They showed her within margin of error with tRump, which is where she ended up. They showed JudyM Dec 2016 #167

Those polls were done in Nov showing Bernie ten points ahead? bravenak Dec 2016 #171

Ha! Doesn't matter, they were 10points beyond the MOE, consistently. That many more likely JudyM Dec 2016 #175

Polls from what, April? Not valid bravenak Dec 2016 #178

If you say so it must be right. JudyM Dec 2016 #182

Half corporate party? ismnotwasm Dec 2016 #187

Why the hell do liquid diamond Dec 2016 #205

People throwing around absolutes really need to stop. We will never know. Get over it NWCorona Dec 2016 #137

I really don't think either of them would have won bravenak Dec 2016 #138

The underlying and hidden metrics were always in Trump's favor NWCorona Dec 2016 #159

I agree bravenak Dec 2016 #161

I would never say he gave up but he did move resources else where but by that point NWCorona Dec 2016 #172

Exactly. You got that right bravenak Dec 2016 #174

whup it out! Cryptoad Dec 2016 #141

I know bravenak Dec 2016 #145

I just wonder how Bernie would have responded when Comey opened an investigation of his ties world wide wally Dec 2016 #146

He would have said the DNC rigged the FBI bravenak Dec 2016 #148

This thread brought to you by the people who said Clinton would win in a landslide. nt Gore1FL Dec 2016 #150

I was not the writer of those ops bravenak Dec 2016 #151

Did you not think she was going to win, or just not in a landslide? nt Gore1FL Dec 2016 #152

I thought she would until Comey bravenak Dec 2016 #154

I had my concerns all the way through due to the voter rejection of political dynasties. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #168

All of this is speculation. We need new blood bravenak Dec 2016 #170

Of course it is all speculation. Hence my criticism of your OP. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #193

Sanders' message was clearly rejected. The 70,000-something people spread over R B Garr Dec 2016 #180

If you say so. I don't recall him runnning in the general election to know if he was rejected. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #192

The 70,000-something voters who decided this election voted R B Garr Dec 2016 #194

Those 70,000-something didn't vote for a lot of people where were not running besides Sanders. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #198

I believe that Bernie would have won. But, the election is over and Trump won. DemocraticWing Dec 2016 #176

Good on you bravenak Dec 2016 #179

Agreed, brave! I guess it bears repeating until the fantasyland relating to him R B Garr Dec 2016 #181

Right? The manson/trump side by side tells the tale bravenak Dec 2016 #184

Anyone who definitively claims to know whether Bernie would have lost or won has little credibility. aikoaiko Dec 2016 #183

Nobody knows for sure bravenak Dec 2016 #185

We did do that. forjusticethunders Dec 2016 #196

I dont think so. Given her history there was no shifting to economic issues aikoaiko Dec 2016 #202

Hillary headed a ticket that did poorly quaker bill Dec 2016 #189

I must respectfully disagree... gregcrawford Dec 2016 #190

Yes. Bernie Sander would have beaten Trump Devil Child Dec 2016 #191

You're wrong. PA, MI and WI... SMC22307 Dec 2016 #199

We don't get to know that. Orsino Dec 2016 #201

Truth! And, Marcus lays it out with FACTS.. So glad I saw this!! Cha Dec 2016 #206

Nope your wrong. Bernie would have beaten Trump jack_krass Dec 2016 #207