2016 Postmortem

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)

56. How close the election actually was seems to not have been grokked by many posters...

Wed Dec 14, 2016, 12:41 PM

Dec 2016

in threads like this.

They seem fixated on "she won by so many votes" rather than the reality of she lost by so little
a small change in strategy could have made the difference.

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How Clinton lost Michigan and blew the election [View all] geek tragedy Dec 2016 OP

No. This. rzemanfl Dec 2016 #1

we can't learn from mistakes if we can't acknowledge them nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #2

Can't win a batting title if the umpire calls balls strikes to help rzemanfl Dec 2016 #17

good hitters adjust to umpires' strike zones. geek tragedy Dec 2016 #20

Doesn't work if the pitch sails 10 feet over the backstop stopbush Dec 2016 #38

first step is always to do the best we can geek tragedy Dec 2016 #40

That's exactly true. zentrum Dec 2016 #97

2004 Howard Dean would have done a better job. geek tragedy Dec 2016 #110

Couldn't agree more. zentrum Dec 2016 #136

Many Democrats were urging Obama to replace DWS as early as autumn 2015, lapucelle Dec 2016 #191

Can't count the number zentrum Dec 2016 #197

Thank you for pointing that out so I didn't have to. n/t rzemanfl Dec 2016 #152

thank you, when i heard that people were warning okieinpain Dec 2016 #45

The old expression Lithos Dec 2016 #113

run/play like you're 20 points down seems to be a good rule geek tragedy Dec 2016 #123

Post removed Post removed Dec 2016 #190

There is much evidence of cheating in Michigan...the election results are a mess and yet Demsrule86 Dec 2016 #200

I don't think you are talking to me, but are addressing the OP. n/t rzemanfl Dec 2016 #203

Still lost Pennsylvania as well exboyfil Dec 2016 #3

I would bet many of the same failings from Michigan were replicated in PA and WI. nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #6

obama and Hillary went to PA over and over again dsc Dec 2016 #9

they went to Philly and Pittsburgh, nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #12

did they ever go outside of those places? pstokely Dec 2016 #189

not that I'm aware of, not with any frequency nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #195

Oops. That didn't work out well. jalan48 Dec 2016 #4

No, having 150,000 votes taken away from Clinton lost Michigan Botany Dec 2016 #5

I'd put my money on that explanation. rurallib Dec 2016 #14

We can continue to scream.... texasmomof3 Dec 2016 #23

Bullshit. Count the vote and HRC won the electoral college too. Botany Dec 2016 #25

Show some proof... Team Hillary screwed the pooch... Yurovsky Dec 2016 #28

here you go Botany Dec 2016 #30

Interesting. Have you seen any reports of voters whose name was purged and were unable to vote? nt jonno99 Dec 2016 #59

One of the sick things behind "cross check" was that in some cases people could vote Botany Dec 2016 #66

How would that happen? If I go down to vote, they check that my name is on the registration jonno99 Dec 2016 #70

If your name was removed from the poll book you would get a provisional ballot .... Botany Dec 2016 #90

Umm... LovingA2andMI Dec 2016 #137

Thank you... Yurovsky Dec 2016 #196

K/R!!! LovingA2andMI Dec 2016 #199

She campaigned regularly in Pennsylvania and Ohio. (eom) StevieM Dec 2016 #73

i worked for Clinton in OH Botany Dec 2016 #174

You are missing the bigger picture... texasmomof3 Dec 2016 #165

Why isn't she fighting for the votes that were stolen from her? Crunchy Frog Dec 2016 #198

Let them vote against us again in 4 years Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 #52

Elections are never a lock. Crunchy Frog Dec 2016 #176

Your theory is a guess at best, Comey, Voter suppression and Russia are NOT guess's uponit7771 Dec 2016 #81

Exactly. nt SunSeeker Dec 2016 #89

Except that it isn't just a white house loss.... texasmomof3 Dec 2016 #166

yeah but she only lost by 10,000 votes. that is something okieinpain Dec 2016 #46

How close the election actually was seems to not have been grokked by many posters... PoliticAverse Dec 2016 #56

That's how I've been seeing it too ... ZoomBubba Dec 2016 #127

Someone sounds pissed they didn't ask Sanders opinion.... bettyellen Dec 2016 #7

they didn't ask anyone's opinion geek tragedy Dec 2016 #10

There were a few 'gotcha' videos citood Dec 2016 #33

they fell in love with technology and data analysis without recognizing the inherent geek tragedy Dec 2016 #36

True...but... citood Dec 2016 #41

Obama embraced the person to person contacts and persuasion geek tragedy Dec 2016 #43

I campaigned for Hillary in Philly HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #77

I'd love to see stats on that, as I know people who knocked on doors and was asked to bus to a swing bettyellen Dec 2016 #134

Agreed, that paragraph is total bullshit. emulatorloo Dec 2016 #169

I knocked doors in Iowa. As did many others. I call bullshit on this 'arrogant' article. emulatorloo Dec 2016 #167

This message was self-deleted by its author emulatorloo Dec 2016 #168

No one was knocking on doors? mcar Dec 2016 #177

... THIS... pkdu Dec 2016 #53

I was listening to Greg Palast yesterday. guillaumeb Dec 2016 #8

Exactly. Else You Are Mad Dec 2016 #11

Exactly. guillaumeb Dec 2016 #13

This Catholic voted for Hillary. Else You Are Mad Dec 2016 #18

And the split of voting echoes what you say here. guillaumeb Dec 2016 #44

That is most likely single issue abortion voters ismnotwasm Dec 2016 #117

It could be. Catholics are divided on the question of abortion and contraception. guillaumeb Dec 2016 #119

Exactly ismnotwasm Dec 2016 #122

Interesting also that what is called "identity politics" guillaumeb Dec 2016 #125

Yup ismnotwasm Dec 2016 #133

The fact that she lost to Bernie in Michigan should've thrown up a red flag the size of Texas mtnsnake Dec 2016 #15

+1 nt jonno99 Dec 2016 #63

+2 putitinD Dec 2016 #130

No more Brooklyn HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #80

Excellent question. Ken Burch Dec 2016 #185

Depends on the swing state Chitown Kev Dec 2016 #186

Presidential candidates almost always have their headquarters in their home state - to do otherwise Midwestern Democrat Dec 2016 #193

Exactly.... LovingA2andMI Dec 2016 #139

No one was more surprised than Bernie. He seemed confused by it. ehrnst Dec 2016 #178

Note to the DNC. Baitball Blogger Dec 2016 #16

Is this a serious post? For real? BobbyDrake Dec 2016 #19

They can sue. Read the lawsuits in the Bush v Gore fiasco. Baitball Blogger Dec 2016 #42

Political parties don't provide voting machines. Anywhere. nt BobbyDrake Dec 2016 #55

Omigod! Baitball Blogger Dec 2016 #76

And I've spelled out to you how parties don't pay for equipment. BobbyDrake Dec 2016 #98

The DNC is always collecting money for something. And when you finally contribute, Baitball Blogger Dec 2016 #155

Of course you have a great idea that just needs someone else to pay for it. BobbyDrake Dec 2016 #158

Excuse me? Did you fail to notice that I do contribute? Baitball Blogger Dec 2016 #162

More of the same "someone else has to do all the work for this idea I had!" claptrap. BobbyDrake Dec 2016 #164

If you want to waste your time with a system that has proven to be inefficient, that is your Baitball Blogger Dec 2016 #171

The broken machine this is interesting since I doubt that they were working during the primaries HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #83

Is your post serious? former9thward Dec 2016 #54

Except the DNC doesn't control or direct county-level activity. BobbyDrake Dec 2016 #58

Actually, in Michigan... LovingA2andMI Dec 2016 #140

Fuck getting them updated. Else You Are Mad Dec 2016 #21

This. I like the system we use in my precinct. We have a big stiff paper ballot where jonno99 Dec 2016 #68

It is intentionally hard. Else You Are Mad Dec 2016 #72

This is the system the Republican counties use in Florida. Baitball Blogger Dec 2016 #79

The system I mentioned? Ok, but we are deep blue here in my area...nt jonno99 Dec 2016 #82

yep; there absolutely needs to be all paper ballots, all hand-counted. will never happen TheFrenchRazor Dec 2016 #183

The defective machine was in Brooklyn BeyondGeography Dec 2016 #22

Plenty of blame to go around for this shitbacle. geek tragedy Dec 2016 #24

Your concern.... Boxerfan Dec 2016 #26

some of us take winning elections as a very serious task that requires we do everything geek tragedy Dec 2016 #27

Yes- Like ignoring the Russian hacks Boxerfan Dec 2016 #32

Not about blame, it's about recognizing mistakes geek tragedy Dec 2016 #34

Well, I hate to inform you. Else You Are Mad Dec 2016 #51

t. He doesn't understand what information warfare is Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 #61

Maybe we should hire Trump in 2020... Else You Are Mad Dec 2016 #74

Are you saying that Hillary never could have won? HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #88

She could've won Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 #92

Honestly, I think Trump is the only reason why we had any chance at all. Midwestern Democrat Dec 2016 #194

My major issue is they had no idea what their real numbers were BeyondGeography Dec 2016 #29

all data models are garbage in, garbage out. geek tragedy Dec 2016 #35

A culture of truth aversion will do that to you BeyondGeography Dec 2016 #37

so will hubris nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #39

GIGO - yep. It appears that the biggest problem with "the data" was the BROAD assumption jonno99 Dec 2016 #71

Exactly right FBaggins Dec 2016 #192

The Communication Was Top Down McKim Dec 2016 #78

That's strange as I have friends that did data entry and were easily able to pick up signs and bettyellen Dec 2016 #141

it's possible some problems were specific to Michigan or even local offices within Michigan. nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #143

And offices always run out and then replenish materials, have dead hours before super busy ones.... bettyellen Dec 2016 #149

let's back up for a second here. geek tragedy Dec 2016 #151

I haven't heard of this "head fake" stuff so I can't say... bettyellen Dec 2016 #153

No signs HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #145

My neighbor got signs stickers and some handouts. We had scripts from the app too. bettyellen Dec 2016 #150

Look....Let's Break This Down...At Least In Michigan LovingA2andMI Dec 2016 #157

I really dont trust politico or any of their staff..enough said INdemo Dec 2016 #31

"Hillary Clinton won this election period." - I think you are going to be in for an unpleasant... PoliticAverse Dec 2016 #57

election Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 #62

The actual election for President takes place December 19th, you know... PoliticAverse Dec 2016 #65

when does the shadow government meet? Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 #67

I think you know what I mean..In reality Clinton won INdemo Dec 2016 #101

This is all monday morning quarterbacking treestar Dec 2016 #47

every NFL team goes over game film to figure out what they did wrong nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #48

The Michigan result was especially disappointing LyndaG Dec 2016 #49

Clinton isn't Obama. nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #50

And right there is our problem. Exilednight Dec 2016 #208

Please STOP with the "How Clinton Lost" threads Persondem Dec 2016 #60

no, that's what postmortems are--a chance to learn from our mistakes. geek tragedy Dec 2016 #64

Except that exactly NONE of the points in your OP will apply to any Persondem Dec 2016 #69

really? Data, voter outreach, central vs local decisionmaking won't geek tragedy Dec 2016 #87

Umm... Yeah.... LovingA2andMI Dec 2016 #144

That's just silly and rather strawmanish. Clinton had a much more robust ground game than Trump Persondem Dec 2016 #202

Really? In a forum titled "2016 Postmortem"? Crunchy Frog Dec 2016 #180

Well why don't you let me know exactly what part this OP will apply to 2020? Persondem Dec 2016 #201

I told you, this is the Postmortem 2016 forum. Crunchy Frog Dec 2016 #204

I think that the point of a postmortem is to provide guidance for the Persondem Dec 2016 #211

I love how for things like this... vi5 Dec 2016 #75

The Monday Morning QB argument is really unpersuasive. geek tragedy Dec 2016 #85

Especially since many of those same folks vi5 Dec 2016 #131

I'm thinking the people obsessing over the roles you speak of are not the same people I think Lil Missy Dec 2016 #206

Well, since I specifically said.. vi5 Dec 2016 #207

I stand by my statement. n/t Lil Missy Dec 2016 #209

Congratulations vi5 Dec 2016 #210

And 90%+ of ad buys for HRC were negative driving down turnout even further JCMach1 Dec 2016 #84

I'm more concerned with cleaning up our voting system for 2018. C Moon Dec 2016 #86

I don't think any of this sort of thing would have mattered if we had a real media NRaleighLiberal Dec 2016 #91

Watching Gladiator should be required for any candidate HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #93

lesson from this election is that everything matters. nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #94

Yup! NRaleighLiberal Dec 2016 #95

The bottom line is, it isn't about Clinton elmac Dec 2016 #96

Bernie could have done very well in the Rust Belt HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #100

Maybe elmac Dec 2016 #142

Subtract the southern vote, and I think we know where we end up. (nt) ehrnst Dec 2016 #179

Just to name a few. ooglymoogly Dec 2016 #160

spell correction ooglymoogly Dec 2016 #163

Hillary had the big money and lost. jfern Dec 2016 #187

I continue to believe that this would not have happened to Bernie. Joe941 Dec 2016 #99

it's possible, also possible Bernie would have done even worse. geek tragedy Dec 2016 #103

Thanks, this is a very informative article. Jim Lane Dec 2016 #102

people are wired to focus on one cause and one solution in defeat, geek tragedy Dec 2016 #107

Ignoring flaws after a victory is definitely a problem. Jim Lane Dec 2016 #129

Thousands of Detroit Ballot with no presidential preference...no Demsrule86 Dec 2016 #104

Clinton lost the election because of the Comey letter(s). Period. End of story. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #105

Wang, to be candid, is looking to CYA after his entire election model was proven to be sh!t geek tragedy Dec 2016 #109

I cannot believe he did that HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #118

there's video ... nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #120

If you want to be candid, you have to acknowledge the death blow of the Comey letters. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #135

Comey certainly did not help, but when it's so close and there are so many different problems, geek tragedy Dec 2016 #146

It wasn't "so close" before the Comey letters. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #147

you're still claiming setting up that server wasn't a mistake? geek tragedy Dec 2016 #148

Don't want to answer my question? nt SunSeeker Dec 2016 #154

Without the Comey letter, we would've narrowly won MI, WI, PA and probably FL. dawg Dec 2016 #106

As I just told someone else, we tend to ignore our mistakes instead of fixing geek tragedy Dec 2016 #108

We ignore our mistakes when we win, but we also tend to magnify them when we lose. dawg Dec 2016 #115

certainly we shouldn't discount every good thing the Clinton campaign did, or accomplished. geek tragedy Dec 2016 #124

2016 he was 100:1 in the primaries HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #126

Yes, but he will have fucked up the whole country by then. dawg Dec 2016 #132

No, your opinion is not exactly mine so therefore you must be wrong. Rex Dec 2016 #111

in death by a thousand cuts, only the 1000th cut is worthy of prevention going forward nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #112

Maybe we are a hydra and when we cut off our own head in spite Rex Dec 2016 #114

Hail Hydra seems to be a common sentiment these days nt geek tragedy Dec 2016 #121

No comment. Crunchy Frog Dec 2016 #116

Great thread and reasoning, geek tragedy True Dough Dec 2016 #128

she needed to go LEFT.be more than RUMP. pansypoo53219 Dec 2016 #138

Per CNN exit polls, only 17% of voters wanted the next president to be more liberal. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #156

She was left. emulatorloo Dec 2016 #170

That's completely contradictory to all polls but whatever... bettyellen Dec 2016 #172

WTF? Who are you talking about? (nt) ehrnst Dec 2016 #175

All this is relevant but nothing works if you cannot combat mfcorey1 Dec 2016 #159

The election was called without Michigan, by the way. LisaM Dec 2016 #161

Take everything you read in THE POLITICO with a huge bolder of salt. emulatorloo Dec 2016 #173

I live in NY, but travelled by bus to PA with dozens of other volunteers lapucelle Dec 2016 #181

It's a dirty diaper leftover from the primary wars. ucrdem Dec 2016 #182

screw this narrative. triron Dec 2016 #184

It's mostly infuriating because it's a pile of pure BS. synergie Dec 2016 #188

Yes she made some mistakes standingtall Dec 2016 #205