2016 Postmortem

Ace Rothstein

(3,299 posts)

7. He was ripped here before the election for giving Trump a 30% chance.

Sun Dec 11, 2016, 02:45 PM

Dec 2016

Silver was the only person saying Trump might win and half of this place was telling the other half to ignore him because of it.

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Nate Silver: Clinton 'almost certainly' would've won before FBI letter [View all] yallerdawg Dec 2016 OP

There's multiple reasons and that letter is a big one. NWCorona Dec 2016 #1

All things being equal... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #6

Definitely! There's just too much of a backstory for it not to be politically motivated NWCorona Dec 2016 #9

Why he hasn't been investigated about this I don't know. It appears that he was ladjf Dec 2016 #27

If his name was J Edgar Hoover... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #30

If he has a private blackmail file, as Hoover had, that needs to be dealt with as well. nt ladjf Dec 2016 #32

I know why he hasn't been investigated about this.. red dog 1 Dec 2016 #56

As was weasel Chaffetz ... Oct. 28th Aimee in OKC Dec 2016 #57

Yet the fact that it was widely known that Russian hacking.. ananda Dec 2016 #41

Most of us... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #50

There was a lot of deflection and diversion. ananda Dec 2016 #68

Ignored by only one side: the GOP. susanna Dec 2016 #76

Perhaps in the war crimes trials that will be held in PatrickforO Dec 2016 #63

This election has caused me to lose much of my sense of civility. If I ever see... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #2

This is all we need to know flamingdem Dec 2016 #3

Here's something we can do now... red dog 1 Dec 2016 #65

Sorry Silver MFM008 Dec 2016 #4

At least he was more cautious in his projections compared to most. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #5

Remember how he was vilified at DU... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #8

I didn't want to believe it either. I thought he might've included too many "junk polls"... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #11

He had to defend his model because he didn't have Hillary at 90%+ like the rest NWCorona Dec 2016 #10

ok MFM008 Dec 2016 #21

I agree, but he didn't have enough to "work with" near the end. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #23

And he was ridiculed on here for doing so. Joe941 Dec 2016 #80

He was ripped here before the election for giving Trump a 30% chance. Ace Rothstein Dec 2016 #7

Before the twitter storm against Silver on his projections. NWCorona Dec 2016 #13

I remember that too. He seemed to give her a "bump" near the end and... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #15

He doesn't do polls himself. He uses polls provided by others and his program aggregates these polls LisaL Dec 2016 #22

Silver made a fool of himself... he had us all believing his BS. I know so many who thought we had it "in the bag" and didn't bother showing up to vote... InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #28

You clearly didn't read 538 at all mythology Dec 2016 #71

One of many responsible, starting with the candidate... though how she lost to a blithering idiot, Nazi racist lunatic, I'll never understand!! InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #74

He didn't blow it. The polls clearly showed a large undecided block pnwmom Dec 2016 #53

Yes I remember seeing the large 'undecideds' on the road to 270 site and I said if that is true TrekLuver Dec 2016 #69

It's not the letter, it's the oversensationalized overemphasized "News" coverage of it. nt JCanete Dec 2016 #12

I think it was both. Comeys actions were highly unusual to the point NWCorona Dec 2016 #14

I'm not excusing him or his intentions. I think those are pretty clear. How those intentions played JCanete Dec 2016 #16

Yep. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #17

He would have to have known that media was going to do exactly what it did. LisaL Dec 2016 #24

known or hoped, it doesn't matter. It's not like the media is actually a dog you wag, as much JCanete Dec 2016 #26

There would be nothing for it to focus on if Comey didn't send his letter, knowing full well it will LisaL Dec 2016 #29

Exactly, it was intentionally vaguely worded, radius777 Dec 2016 #19

Add to that that FBI knew about the letters at least since early October, from what has been LisaL Dec 2016 #25

The same can be said of his July press conference. He deliberately chose his words StevieM Dec 2016 #38

Agree. It's clear now the July press conf was radius777 Dec 2016 #47

I presume Comey knew full well his letter will result in such news coverage. LisaL Dec 2016 #18

That makes no sense... no letter, no coverage. InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #31

Well, exactly. LisaL Dec 2016 #33

No question... Comey should be frog marched out of the building and tried for his crimes!! InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #34

well holy fuck, you read my comment as defending Comey. How? JCanete Dec 2016 #43

How long did it take you to hear about the water protectors from a mainstream source? JCanete Dec 2016 #45

I see your point and, yes, it's likely the Rethug friendly media would've focused on something else to tRump's benefit. InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #70

certainly. not 'almost certainly'. /nt radius777 Dec 2016 #20

Suggestive but by no means definitive. There's no correlation established. ucrdem Dec 2016 #35

The table shows how the votes broke for undecideds during the last week. yallerdawg Dec 2016 #36

Several reasons. Here's one: ucrdem Dec 2016 #40

As noted elsewhere today: yallerdawg Dec 2016 #46

Also suggestive, but even if definitive, it wouldn't account for that 8-pt leap in WI. ucrdem Dec 2016 #51

The RCP polling you are citing... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #59

We've got US senators of both parties calling for investigations into this election. ucrdem Dec 2016 #64

It looks like Silver's 59-30 margin for WI came from the CNN exit polls? Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #62

Silver has been wrong. We'll never know George Eliot Dec 2016 #37

We do know one thing. The email investigation was not being reopened per the letter, and the media still_one Dec 2016 #42

Why am I not surprised that The Hill lapucelle Dec 2016 #60

Actually whe MSNBC grabbed opened a breaking news saying the email investigation had been still_one Dec 2016 #39

Nate who? TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #44

I don't about anything Nate Silver says either. Initech Dec 2016 #49

James Comey committed an act of treason. Initech Dec 2016 #48

plus 1 red dog 1 Dec 2016 #54

WHY does that Hatch Act-violating sonofabi*ch still have a job then? n/t CousinIT Dec 2016 #52

Ask Obama that question! red dog 1 Dec 2016 #66

Comey is a criminal..He violated the Hatch Act! red dog 1 Dec 2016 #55

How can someone be one week from the election and wavering between Clinton and Trump??? Roland99 Dec 2016 #58

We need to recognize that most people... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #61

I've certainly met people like that. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #67

They were voters who disliked Clinton but were nervous about Trump. In the end, they decided Midwestern Democrat Dec 2016 #73

Or she could've just use the goddamn government server... Yurovsky Dec 2016 #72

It was perfect timing budkin Dec 2016 #75

i agree, and recognized the disastrous timing at the time-- but there was nothing to be done andym Dec 2016 #77

Seems like timing was picked for maximum impact. LisaL Dec 2016 #79

Yes-- the timing couldn't have been worse-- suppressed the early Democratic leaning vote andym Dec 2016 #82

At time of letter, Trump was getting bashed for comments on women, etc. After FBI letter, Hoyt Dec 2016 #78

The Comey letter did its job.. Docreed2003 Dec 2016 #81