White Trump voters that voted for Obama twice aren't racist, they are Emotion Voters

[Drunken Irishman]

37. You're posing irrelevant figures...

Just as I can.

It implies the difference between Obama & Hillary solely came from Obama voters voting Trump. That's not accurate at all. The increase in Trump support among white voters could have come from Obama white voters either not voting or voting third party. 5% of whites voted third party in 2016 in Ohio, compared to only 2% from 2012. How many of those voters voted Obama in 2012? We don't know - but it's just as logical to assume a good chunk of them did as it is to assume the difference in Trump support among whites came from Obama voters four years ago. If that's the case, the difference is already halved, at least, by those voters. Moreover, you could couple Obama's support among white voters staying home AND an increase of new white voters who didn't vote in 2012. That would not suggest Obama white voters four years ago voted for Trump.

Especially when you look at the party ID and ideology compare it to 2012: In 2012, 38% of the voters who voted were Democrats. In 2016, it was just 34%. For Republicans, it was 31% in 2012 and 37% in 2016 - a near reversal. In ideologies, liberals made up two-percent fewer voters compared to 2012, while self-identifying conservatives saw an increase of four-percent - a total shift of six-percentage points against liberals from 2012. That points to a different electorate, which was more conservative than four years ago and more white - even if only marginally.

Bottom line: you're wrong. Your point can't be made without further understanding of the electorate. You provide no facts and no logical explanation beyond numbers that are unrelated. There are just as many arguments that could be made to suggest the difference in white support from 2012 to 2016 stems from Obama white voters staying home or voting third party. Which would hurt Hillary Clinton and help Trump.


Were there some white voters who voted for Trump and supported Obama four years ago? Sure - but they're a statistical anomaly.