2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Ahead of recount, Wisconsin has already wiped out 5,000 imaginary Donald Trump votes [View all]SickOfTheOnePct
(7,364 posts)It's based on an outlier poll, conducted via telephone and internet in such a manner that the pollster couldn't even calculate a margin of error, using data for 3.6 million people that is then extrapolated out for an additional 3 million people.
And Steve Schale, whom I think is one of, if not the best, Democratic politico in Florida, felt that while Clinton's lead was good coming out of early voting, knew that a heavy and loyal Republican turnout in rural Florida could sink her. So while he was shocked that she lost the election overall, he wasn't necessarily shocked that she lost Florida.
Finally, to the math errors on election, you can't make base any kind of statistical analysis on data gathered that is gathered with a built in bias, as this data was.