2016 Postmortem

TwilightZone

(28,836 posts)

21. Your underlying premise is faulty. Interviewing all of the voters involved in a race is not the same

Reply to democrattotheend (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:40 PM

Jun 2016

as conducting a poll.

A poll includes a small subset of the total number of voters and is extrapolated based on that sample.

The AP interviewed *all* SDs. There's nothing to extrapolate. The AP knows how every person involved intended to vote, because they personally interviewed every person. Repeatedly.

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What the AP did was like calling the presidential election on November 1 based on a Gallup poll [View all] democrattotheend Jun 2016 OP

No it wasn't ... but go ahead and stomp your feet and pout ... get it out of your system n/t SFnomad Jun 2016 #1

If I were a Hillary supporter I'd be "stomping and pouting" too democrattotheend Jun 2016 #14

It's disappointing, to say the least ... but in 50 years, nobody will remember that AP needed to be SFnomad Jun 2016 #18

On her husbands coattails is how they'll frame it. Loudestlib Jun 2016 #40

There is a Debbie Downer in every crowd SFnomad Jun 2016 #41

no, it's more comparable to calling it when a candidate gets the electoral number even though people JI7 Jun 2016 #2

No it's not democrattotheend Jun 2016 #6

the Clinton numbers included states and pledged delegates she had already won also JI7 Jun 2016 #12

It was more like calling it September 7th based on RealClear's average. Joe the Revelator Jun 2016 #3

Get ahold of yourself. Brickbat Jun 2016 #4

Noticed you skipped right over 2008 and chose 2004. tarheelsunc Jun 2016 #5

In 2008, nobody called the primary until the polls had closed in the last state to vote democrattotheend Jun 2016 #10

2008 TimPlo Jun 2016 #15

Bullshit, it's like calling it when a candidate gets to 270 while polls on in Alaska are still open. Lord Magus Jun 2016 #7

Agreed. A superdelegate endorsement is essentially a vote. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #16

So if the superdelegates had put John Edwards over the top with endorsements in 2008 democrattotheend Jun 2016 #22

As I wrote... Garrett78 Jun 2016 #34

Sorry, my hypo was assuming that Edwards had also won the pledged delegates democrattotheend Jun 2016 #35

The media did what the media does. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #43

I agree with you re. what Clinton would have preferred democrattotheend Jun 2016 #45

It's crooked as hell and there's no way it didn't LibDemAlways Jun 2016 #8

To be expected as with everthing engineered and approved by Clinton... JimDandy Jun 2016 #9

Is there anything wrong with predicting the election result based on a Gallup poll? Nye Bevan Jun 2016 #11

For news media yes there is. TimPlo Jun 2016 #17

Predictions are different from projections democrattotheend Jun 2016 #23

Its rigged..much laserhaas Jun 2016 #13

No actually it's like a normal election where they call it sometimes before California has finished Dem2 Jun 2016 #19

Yeah1! What's next? Weather forecasts? PepperHarlan Jun 2016 #20

Your underlying premise is faulty. Interviewing all of the voters involved in a race is not the same TwilightZone Jun 2016 #21

Key word being "intended to vote" democrattotheend Jun 2016 #24

The AP also noted that all commitments from Clinton SDs were firm. TwilightZone Jun 2016 #27

So they would have stayed "firm" with John Edwards in 2008 after the scandal broke? democrattotheend Jun 2016 #29

Ah, the indictment fairy. I guess I should have known. TwilightZone Jun 2016 #32

The AP call didn't change anything. bigwillq Jun 2016 #25

Righf because four months of voting had nothing to do with it. Briiliant analaysis. seabeyond Jun 2016 #26

As opinions goes and we see plenty here, to predict an outcome and if that outcome turns out to Thinkingabout Jun 2016 #28

No gollygee Jun 2016 #30

You really don't have the slightest idea what you're talking about Tarc Jun 2016 #31

Which is exactly why they ought to have waited until the pledged delegates had all been allotted democrattotheend Jun 2016 #37

BWAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!! MohRokTah Jun 2016 #33

"What the AP did was like calling the presidential election on November 1 based on a Gallup poll" puffy socks Jun 2016 #36

I actually don't think Bernie should stay in until the convention democrattotheend Jun 2016 #38

um... you're totally missing the point. puffy socks Jun 2016 #42

I have never said Bernie is the only candidate who can beat Trump, or that the elections are rigged democrattotheend Jun 2016 #44

do you not understand plurals? puffy socks Jun 2016 #46

My point is, you are dismissing my argument based on a generalization democrattotheend Jun 2016 #47

Not even close. This is like news orgs having "whip counts" on major legislation like the ACA or tritsofme Jun 2016 #39