On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs

[DetlefK]

1. The diagrams on pages 5 and 10 are very interesting:

If the conspirators kill each other, the probability of a leak peaks very fast and then decays very slowly. Overall probability very low. (~10% in the example)

If the conspirators die off of old age, the probability of a leak peaks after a long time and then decays pretty fast. Overall probability medium. (~40% in the example)

If the number of conspirators stays constant, the probability of a leak increases monotonely over time. The longer the time, the higher the probability someone will eventually spill the beans. (~75% after 60 years in the example, for a group of 5000 conspirators)





Based on parameters derived from blown conspiracies, the model predicts that conspiracies like a moon-landing-hoax or a climate-change-hoax or a vaccination-hoax or a cancer-research-hoax would have been blown the latest after 5-10 years.