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DetlefK

(16,485 posts)
28. The scientific method can be derived from statistics. Religious belief violates statistics.
Mon Dec 7, 2015, 11:17 AM
Dec 2015

I'm talking here about statistics as a mathematical discipline.

When you look at something with experimental means (How tall is a person? What did God tell me in that dream?) you never get all the information. You get a statistical sample.
If you measure the height of 100 random people, does that tell you how tall on average the people of a whole country are?
If you add up what 100 random prophets tell you about God, does that give you the ultimate and infallible truth what God is like?

No, it doesn't.

The larger the sub-set, the closer the information you get from it is to the information you would get from the whole set.
But you will hardly be able to measure the height of ALL people in a country.
You will hardly be able to collect the wisdom of ALL people who would like to talk with you about God. (And try combining them into one coherent explanation/theory...)



The scientific method is based on this simple mathematical fact. No matter how much proof you gather in support of your theory, there is always a probability that something somewhere in the universe violates the theory you made up. (Unless you took the time to gather all possible data in the whole universe.) And this one instance is entirely enough to make your theory deviate from the "true" theory that you are trying to decipher.

Religion works exactly the other way round. No matter how little proof you have in support of your theory, it is defined as impossible that your theory could be wrong. You will eventually find some or other evidence that agrees with your theory. So, you have that speck of data supporting your religious theory and shit-tons of data contradicting your theory. In the realm of religion this means that your theory is correct.


EDIT:
THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WHATSOEVER WITH THE PERSON COLLECTING OR ANALYZING THE DATA. THE POSSIBILITY OF ERROR IS AN INTRINSIC MATHEMATICAL PROPERTY OF THE CONCEPT "DATA".

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What a twit skepticscott Nov 2015 #1
That's not what his point is. Warren Stupidity Nov 2015 #2
Saying that it's "complicated" skepticscott Nov 2015 #4
This^ AlbertCat Nov 2015 #5
"A few blackened Serengei mandibles"?? AlbertCat Nov 2015 #6
But he didn't mention evolution at all muriel_volestrangler Nov 2015 #7
Please tell me you're being sarcastic skepticscott Nov 2015 #8
I'm perfectly serious, because I read the thing, and didn't have a kneejerk muriel_volestrangler Nov 2015 #9
The "proliferation of hominids" skepticscott Nov 2015 #10
No, the proliferation of hominids is not evolution muriel_volestrangler Nov 2015 #11
"But it is a special kind of social activity, one where lots of different human traits— AlbertCat Nov 2015 #14
Who said it was 'news'? It's a book review in the New Yorker muriel_volestrangler Nov 2015 #15
It's a book review in the New Yorker AlbertCat Nov 2015 #17
And you call me 'obtuse'. AlbertCat Nov 2015 #18
I pointed it out because skepticscott had said muriel_volestrangler Nov 2015 #19
The authors pretends that bullshit, strawman arguments are somehow legitimate skepticscott Nov 2015 #21
Yes, you are being deliberately obtuse skepticscott Nov 2015 #20
You said you were loving this; don't throw a tantrum, when you're tiring of your lesson muriel_volestrangler Nov 2015 #22
You still can't grasp the difference between talking about evolution skepticscott Nov 2015 #23
Your simple point was wrong. muriel_volestrangler Nov 2015 #24
The dispute between Bohr and Einstein skepticscott Nov 2015 #25
OK: muriel_volestrangler Nov 2015 #26
No, obviously he isn't referring to evolution, because he doesn't talk about it. AlbertCat Nov 2015 #12
And the dividing line between species, AlbertCat Nov 2015 #13
And that's the point; you can't work out that dividing line from fossils muriel_volestrangler Nov 2015 #16
An interesting bit of philosophistry Yorktown Nov 2015 #3
Well...Science is hardly just a "social activity" Duppers Dec 2015 #27
The scientific method can be derived from statistics. Religious belief violates statistics. DetlefK Dec 2015 #28
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