Last edited Mon Oct 30, 2023, 06:22 AM - Edit history (2)
by 2050
I did a little math exercise to see how much the WEO's "stated policies" scenario (shown in the above table) would reduce fossil fuel use by 2050, the last year in the table.
Fossil fuel supply from IEA WEO 2023.
2022 and 2050 under stated policies scenario, ExaJoules (EJ).
Unabated natural gas + Oil less oil for non-energy use [1] + unabated coal
[1] since the table is titled World ENERGY Supply
2022: 144 + 187 - 32 + 170 = 469 EJ. Total energy supply: 632 EJ. % of total energy that is fossil: 74.2%
2050: 142 + 186 - 41 + 101 = 388 EJ. Total energy supply: 725 EJ. % of total energy that is fossil: 53.5%
Total fossil supply for energy, % change in EJ from 2022 to 2050 (469 to 388 EJ) : -17.3%
This projection indicates not a lot of progress expected in 28 years.
EDIT: 2010: 115 + 173 - 25 + 153 = 416 EJ
Total fossil supply for energy, % change in EJ from 2010 to 2050 (416 to 388 EJ) : -6.7%
IOW if stated policies are followed, in 2050 there will be almost as much fossil use as in 2010. Just 6.7% less/END EDIT
As for the likelihood of stated policies being followed:
Carbon targets seen off by a mile as ambitions fall short, Axios Generate, 6/9/23
Title on Axios site: The climate confidence gap
https://www.axios.com/2023/06/09/climate-paris-agreement-scorecard
... new analysis finds little reason to believe most countries will fulfill their aggressive emissions pledges.
... "Looking at policies instead of promises shows that global climate targets may be missed by a large margin," it notes.
... Of note: The new paper comes as a separate study warns that "the world has eliminated half of its remaining carbon budget to keep warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with preindustrial levels in just the last three years," the Washington Post reports.
[snip]
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