Last edited Wed May 15, 2024, 12:29 PM - Edit history (1)
how Bibi can sustain the status quo. None of the dynamics of the wartime politics in Israel favor Bibi - his political position, both in Israel and abroad, weakens with each passing day. I can see several likely factors that would contribute to Bibi's government falling before the elections, and none, with the possible exception of Trump becoming US President, favoring Bibi.
Bibi is an incompetent wartime leader, and several IDF generals openly criticized him for it. If the Haredis begin serving in IDF, and even if they don't, most Israeli voters are also Israeli soldiers. I believe the IDF gets consistently higher ratings than Bibi's government in polls. I am not talking about anything like a military coup, but Israeli voters, both right and left leaning, listen to what their commanders have to say.
As I mentioned before, Bibi is the left wing of his right wing government. He is ideologically unacceptable to his right wing ministers, they only tolerate him inasmuch as he gives them power, but no more. As Bibi's political position weakens, so does support within his cabinet. It only takes one of the ministers to drop out of the coalition for the government to fall.
The pressure on Bibi from Israel's allies is mounting. Specifically, in the US, the likelihood of his ally Trump becoming President is diminishing. Bibi can probably last until the US elections are over, but if Trump doesn't become President (if he does, the consequences for the entire world become dire and totally unpredictable), Bibi's prospects of remaining relevant as a politician are over. Without Trump, he will not be able to deliver much to his right wing ministers, and then, we already covered what is likely to happen.
I always thought of Jewish Diaspora as an added strong backbone for Israel. The secular techies leaving Israel are therefore, in my view, a positive development, not a negative one. Not only do they reinforce cultural and economic ties between their new localities and Israel, they become indispensable, especially in the traditionally antisemitic cultures of Europe and Latin America, as role models and ambassadors of good will for Israel. AND they vote. When Israelis leave the country, their votes still count.
The Saudis and other Sunni states can't wait to sign treaties for military and economic cooperation with Israel. They are being destabilized and threatened by the same Iran-backed terrorist proxies as Israel, but unlike Israel, they are defenseless against these enemies. While in the past they did their damnedest to wipe out Israel, today they themselves can't survive without it. This is a radical existential shift in the Middle Eastern balance of powers, involving multiple players beyond Israeli borders, and Netanyahu, not Israel, is in their way way.
It only takes a small movement to the left to radically change Israel's domestic and foreign policies. Netanyahu as prime minister is becoming prohibitively unacceptable to too many interests, both within and outside of Israel. The pressure is mounting on him to bow out, one way or another, and the straws he is grasping onto are becoming fewer and weaker. I don't see a way out of this situation for Bibi. He can delay, as he has done until now, but he cannot escape this.
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