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Foreign Affairs

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TexasTowelie

(125,098 posts)
Thu Dec 11, 2025, 04:11 PM Dec 11

The Cash For Putin's War Just Stopped - Jason Jay Smart [View all]



Russia is discovering that its sovereign territory is no longer a safe haven for its capital or its elite. The forced closure of all four major Moscow airports - Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, Vnukovo, and Zhukovsky - signals a logistical breakdown that grounds high value travel and physically isolates the regime. The war has moved from the distant frontier directly into the financial center of the state.

Simultaneously, the physical mechanisms of Russian revenue are being dismantled. Drone strikes on the Filanovsky platform in the Caspian Sea and export terminals near Novorossiysk confirm that energy infrastructure is now a defensible liability rather than a guaranteed asset. In the Black Sea, the shadow fleet is losing its cover; hits on tankers like the Dashan are driving war risk insurance premiums to prohibitive levels, effectively placing a blockade on Moscow's wallet.

The financial consequences are immediate. As physical exports are severed, the Central Bank is forcing the liquidation of foreign reserves to stabilize the ruble. Corporate loans are turning toxic, households are hoarding hard currency, and the state is forced to issue high yield debt to Beijing just to maintain liquidity. This is the anatomy of a systemic collapse where physical insecurity triggers financial insolvency.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Intro
02:18 - Shadow Fleet Destruction: How Ukraine Sank Russia's Oil Wallet
04:57 - Putin's Financial Collapse: Burning Reserves and Ruble Distrust
07:11 - Moscow's Repression Trap: When Loyalty Can't Be Bought
09:52 - A Strategy to Win: Arm Ukraine, Target Oil, and Tighten Sanctions
11:41 - Outro
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