The Peak Oil Crisis: 2012 -- Apocalypse Now?

[happyslug]

13. look at the SLOPE of the graph you used for 1965-1973 and post 2005

Thew slope of BOTH section of that Graph is about the same (through one is going up, the other going down). That was do to the affect of the Arab Oil embargo in 1973 and the Iranian Crisis of 1979, both increased the PRICE of oil excessively. That price increased is believed to have DELAYED peak oil from about 200 to 2005. Some of the dispute with a direct application of Hurbert's curve can be explained by that delay in reaching peak. In fact according to your graph, it looks like peak should have occurred in the late 1970s to the early 1980s and then go into decline, but did NOT do to the overall decline in the INCREASE use of oil during the 1970s and 1980s (Actually increase close to the pre-1973 levels did NOT re-incur till AFTEr 2000, through oil use did increase in the 1980s and 1990s, but at much lower rates then in year prior to 1973).

I suspect a similar (in reverse order) slow decrease in oil usage over the next 20 years. Prices will go up, till a sizable segment of the users of oil can no longer afford to use oil, at which point the price of oil will stabilize for a time period (May be days, weeks, months or even years but NOT decades). After a while oil even at that price will become rare, till the price reaches a point where even more people stop using oil, then the price will drop till enough people can not longer afford oil and thus stop buying oil and the price stabilizes again. This will occur over and over again till past 2100.

Side Note: If you study Zoning laws, you will find out that most Zoning law reflects that people with money will use their Political power to have laws passed and enforce so that they do NOT have to out spend someone else. The Classic Situation is New York City where Zoning Laws started. The Millionaires used their money and connections to get Zoning laws passed for the poor were willing to pay more on a per foot basis then the rich were willing to pay. I.e. the poor would live in a tiny apartment and pay top dollar for it, if the alternative is to live on the Street. Thus the poor, as a WHOLE, will pay more to live in a block built for such tiny apartments, then the upper middle class will pay for their single homes on the same block (i.e. 1000 people will pay $100 a month, thus a total payment of $100,000 dollars a month to live in a large apartment complex, while their millionaire upper middle class neighbors only wants to pay $10,000 a month for the same block, thus the 1000 poor people outbid the single upper middle class person). It is for this reason, that the poor will pay more per square foot then their upper middle class neighbors is why Zoning laws were passed, to prevent such out bidding by the poor for housing in Upper Middle Class Neighborhoods.

I bring up Zoning law, for I suspect the Upper Middle Class (The 1 %) will face the same situation as oil prices raise, and address the issue as they did with the Housing situation mentioned above, by passing a law where it will be harder for the Poor and Working Class to obtain oil EVEN IF THEY HAVE THE MONEY TO PAY FOR THE OIL. I will NOT be surprised at new laws requiring older cars to be Junked rather then repaired (the best excuse for such a ban would be pollution controls, but other reasons will be used), all to reduce DEMAND for oil and thus the price of oil BUT at the cost of the poor and working class have less and less ability to obtain oil for their own use. A side affect of this will be further delay in the decline in the use of oil.

This one two punch (First punch is the increase in price of oil leading to a decline in use, the Second punch will be the increase laws against the poor and working class from obtaining oil) will slow down the price affect, of the decline in oil production. A side affect will be a slow down in overall usage and thus we will see production return to a more Hurbert's curve production curve then the production level you cite. Only time will tell as to how fast oil production will decline, but we can do a good bit of planning during that decline and hopefully we will as soon as the majority of Americans finally accept oil production is in decline and one side affect of that is increase prices for oil Right now, most Americans are in denial as to Peak Oil, or blame some conspiracy for the increase in the price of oil since 2002. Sooner or later the America people will have to address the problems of Peak Oil, but not until it starts hitting them more then it has. Right now, high price of oil is a problem, but a problem most people can address, but sooner or later it will hit harder in that people will no longer be able to go to and from work, when that occurs I see problems including riots and maybe even a revolution if no one addresses the problems caused by the raising price of oil