Should the Phoenix Arise; the Bateman Equation and Wind Energy.

[NNadir]

I'm very depressed; I'm sure I will not live long enough to see a Phoenix rise from this political, unprecedented disaster in which my people showed themselves unworthy of decency. I am extremely disgusted by the American People as a whole, and worry as to whether this is 1933 in Berlin all over again.

All day I've been trying to think about something else, so here it is:

I would have thought, with all the trillions thrown at it, the wind industry would have added at least one Exajoule of Energy but according to the EIA's World Energy Outlook, it remained constant from 2022 to 2023. It has always been a trivial, if expensive, form of reactionary energy despite the myth that it's "cheap," a lie advanced by ignoring the required internal and external costs of redundancy, a dishonest practice if ever there was one. It produced 8 Exajoules in 2022; and 8 Exajoules again in 2023.

To wit:



World Energy Outlook 2024

Table A.1a: World energy supply Page 296. (Primary Energy Excerpt)

At least in round numbers, the wind energy output grew, in "percent talk," zero percent.

Of course people are tearing the shit out of wilderness to make wind industrial parks, and now are trashing the continental shelf to do the same, so it kind of surprised me. One possibility is that the inability of so called "renewable energy" to do anything at all to address extreme global warming, has changed the weather so as to diminish the winds, but I'm not sure I'd believe that. Another is an increasing wake effect, known to diminish winds in wind industrial parks, so that each turbine produces even less energy than an isolated turbine might.

However, I wondered to myself, while trying to think of something other than an ignorant pig heading to the White House to destroy this country, whether another effect is taking place, secular equilibrium.

I have repeatedly noted, using data from the Danish Energy Agency's Master Register of Wind Turbines, which is no longer maintained there, probably because it makes the industry look like shit (which it is), that wind turbines have a short life time, under 18 years on average.

The Growth Rate of the Danish Wind Industry As Compared to the New Finnish EPR Nuclear Reactor.

With the trillions of dollars spent on wind energy has left lots of them littering the planet. The more there are, the more that will be available to fail.

In nuclear engineering, an important equation to understand is the Bateman Equation:



It can be shown that the solutions of this equation involve exponential terms, particularly in the case involving simplification to give the radioactive decay law, which is buried in the Bateman equation above.



In the Bateman Equation shown the first term after the summation refers to the fission yield of a particular nuclide N_i, it creates a nuclide, and thus works to increase its concentration. It's linear. However the decay term is exponential; the more of a nuclide there is, the more of it will decay. The result is, that given any power level for nuclear reactors, there will be a point at which the radioactive fission products will be decaying at the rate formed. (This is actually asymptotic, but for practical purposes achieved on a macroscopic scale.) Where this equilibrium lies, is a function of the half-life; the shorter the half-life for any nuclide, the less will be available for use. Short-lived nuclides reach secular equilibrium while still in the reactor, longer lived nuclides can survive long enough to be isolated for use.

And this is, I think, on reflection, why the growth of the wind industry has stopped; secular equilibrium is being achieved. We can no longer afford to build them as fast as they fail, because as so many of them now litter the planet, the numbers of those failing is nearly equal to the capacity to build new ones.

It seems reasonable, but there are other factors for sure, but it's an interesting way to look at it, and probably of some relevance.

It's possible one may not like this observation, which, so far as the growth of wind energy output, zero percent from 2022 to 2023, is nonetheless real. If however, one is in the class of not liking this real data, as I'm raw, and hurting for my country, I would appreciate it if you don't post videos put out by the so called "renewable energy"/battery/hydrogen cults. I've had enough of cults for now.