Personal Finance and Investing

Major Nikon

(36,921 posts)

22. That's conventional wisdom, but comes with some caveats

Mon Dec 17, 2018, 01:01 PM

Dec 2018

If you retire at an advanced age, you generally need a more predictable level of income over a shorter period of time. So it makes sense to divest from more volatile investments because you may not have time to recover from short term losses.

If you retire early with 20 or more years of life expectancy, then you are pretty much guaranteeing less income over time if you divest too early from more volatile investments that have higher average yields.

The problem is that those long term bond investments used to be a pretty good bet (at least as far as yield goes) when inflation was wildly unpredictable. Now you're lucky to get 1/3rd of the long term return compared to stocks.

This could certainly change. If dipshits like Trump get their way, we could easily return to the fucked up monetary management that Nixon ushered in and gave us many years of runaway inflation and depressed markets that heavily favored "safe" investments like long term bonds.

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Need advice: should we ride out fluctuations in the market [View all] Duppers Dec 2018 OP

We pulled out of the market the minute that orangeshitgibbon took office. Canoe52 Dec 2018 #1

Where are you investing now? Duppers Dec 2018 #2

Money market funds, or you can do a cd ladder as rates are going up. brush Dec 2018 #29

What kind of rates are you getting on your cd's? PoindexterOglethorpe Dec 2018 #31

My most recent rate was 2.2% but with the rates being raised it should be ihgher... brush Dec 2018 #32

That's my problem with cd's. PoindexterOglethorpe Dec 2018 #33

Some of that "return" is return of principal? progree Dec 2018 #34

Oh, I know how cd's work. PoindexterOglethorpe Dec 2018 #36

I agree with you on equities vs. bonds and CDs. My problem is with comparing the yield of progree Dec 2018 #38

That is very true. You can't really compare the two without PoindexterOglethorpe Dec 2018 #39

Yeah, I get Social Security too and income from a charitable gift annuity, so I know what you mean. progree Dec 2018 #40

My cd strategy is temporary until the market volatility eases. brush Dec 2018 #35

Not all of my portfolio is in the annuities. PoindexterOglethorpe Dec 2018 #37

Two things to consider. 3Hotdogs Dec 2018 #3

That's what we've been doing for the last 40yrs. Duppers Dec 2018 #5

Take the money out. You will sleep better at night. 3Hotdogs Dec 2018 #7

Thank you! 🙏 Duppers Dec 2018 #11

If you are retired, most of your money should not be in the stock market. marylandblue Dec 2018 #4

Thanks! Right now its half and half. Duppers Dec 2018 #6

There are some rules of thumb for allocation marylandblue Dec 2018 #8

Agree with the previous post, after retirement one should be out of anything risky anyway. Canoe52 Dec 2018 #9

I like the way you think. 😉😄 nt Duppers Dec 2018 #12

Short term treasury bills are where the world's wealthy put money for safety. empedocles Dec 2018 #26

bonds, the old safety group, may get volatile, and even risky. empedocles Dec 2018 #23

True, so far this year, bond funds haven't been any safe haven -- VBMFX down 1.9% YTD progree Dec 2018 #24

US Treasury Bond yields from about '72 to '81, went from 5% to 15% empedocles Dec 2018 #25

Good point. I remember some of that - back in like 1981 the financial seminar teacher progree Dec 2018 #28

This message was self-deleted by its author lastlib Dec 2018 #13

With the inversion of the treasury yield curve, short-term bonds would be safer..... lastlib Dec 2018 #14

That's conventional wisdom, but comes with some caveats Major Nikon Dec 2018 #22

+1,000 !! CountAllVotes Dec 2018 #27

That probably depends on when you expect to need the money. IphengeniaBlumgarten Dec 2018 #10

This message was self-deleted by its author A HERETIC I AM Dec 2018 #15

Progree is right. A HERETIC I AM Dec 2018 #19

Actually I think we were both right to some extent, and both wrong to some extent progree Dec 2018 #20

Whatever you do, don't read any books or articles on finances or investing progree Dec 2018 #16

Thank you so much!! Duppers Dec 2018 #17

This message was self-deleted by its author A HERETIC I AM Dec 2018 #18

I want to repeat what Progree says in the threads he linked to: PoindexterOglethorpe Dec 2018 #21

My husband retires in 12 days. Croney Dec 2018 #30

Why are you assuming a pending recession? PoindexterOglethorpe Jan 2019 #41

Consider a simple 3 or 4 fund portfolio IronLionZion Jan 2019 #42