Need advice: should we ride out fluctuations in the market

[progree]

16. Whatever you do, don't read any books or articles on finances or investing

because the authors cannot know your specific situation, and you have no ability to apply what you read to your own personal situation.
{sarcasm}.

Paying someone to give you the standard much-worn allocation advice, like your equity percentage should be 110 minus your age, is what will help you the most. {sarcasm}

(Not paying someone and instead having some white-shoe type working on commission or earning fees from what (s)he sells is even worse).

As for myself, FWIW, I am retired, and my life expectancy is about 18 years, and no market downturn has lasted that long. More like 2-7 years on average. So I'm mostly in equities. Simulations by many authors over the years in the AAII Journal and elsewhere have shown that portfolios heavy in equities last longer than those mostly in bonds or cash. In these simulations, the standard withdrawing of 4% of one's portfolio in the first year of retirement, and increasing that dollar amount each year thereafter by the rate of inflation, is tested. A variety of scenarios are tested -- lower/higher withdrawal rates, lower/higher inflation rates, lower/higher average returns, etc.

One recent book that you shouldn't read because the author doesn't know you is "Investing at Level 3" by James Cloonan. Rather than yet another tiresome book parroting conventional wisdom, he actually looks at the data. (That said, past performance does not guarantee future results).

Yes, the risk of doing living expense withdrawals while stocks are down is scary. On the other hand, more likely one would be withdrawing while stocks are high, but nobody talks about that. That said, even Cloonan advises having some allocation to fixed income and cash-like investments for living expenses in market downturns. (Interestingly, that's a form of market timing, but nobody seems to notice that).

My rants and rave --
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2212402
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1121&pid=1306