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progree

(11,463 posts)
3. The source (which says not a single word about the fraud stuff)
Thu May 18, 2023, 11:04 AM
May 2023
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Initial claims: 242,000, down by 22,000 from the previous week. The previous week was unrevised

In last Thursday's report (5/11), initial claims was reported as 264,000
(264 - 22 = 242 v/ ). 242,000 is the same level as reported 5/04

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Continuing claims: 1,799k (Down 8k from previous week, previous week revised down 6k)

In last Thursday's report (5/11), continuing claims was reported as 1,813k
(1,813 - 8 - 6 = 1,799 v/ )

Continuing claims is what the DOL report calls insured unemployment.

Unfortunately, the graphs at the above link show considerable growth in both initial and continuing claims since October. But still these are low levels historically (and the labor force is much larger than decades ago).

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Unless I'm missing something, no bureaucrats or politicos are "cooking the books". Rather, apparently some ring of fraudsters in Massachushetts has managed to "to gain access to active UI accounts or file new UI claims using stolen personal information so they can fraudulently obtain unemployment benefits.". So as to personally collect (steal) money, not to distort the numbers for political / ideological reasons.

And no, the monthly first Friday BLS jobs report that reports the headline national unemployment rate (currently 3.4%) and the nonfarm payroll jobs number does NOT use unemployment insurance claims figures. That is an old old persistent myth. Rather the unemployment rate is based on a monthly survey of 60,000 households.

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Oops, I meant to "Reply to thread" (i.e. the OP).
Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Economy»US Jobless Claims Tumbled...»Reply #3