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merrily

(45,251 posts)
24. I knew what you were quoting from. Is Simon supposed to be infallible? Even IF the exit poll that
Wed Sep 2, 2015, 04:06 AM
Sep 2015

was done was not a "rigorous" exit poll (as opposed to a lax exit poll?), it is not accurate to say NO exit poll was done, is it?

It's more of a poll conducted post-election within the Martha Coakley supporters and advisers to find out where the campaign failed.


Where are you getting all that? That is NOT what the article to which I linked you says.

An exit survey of Massachusetts voters confirms that “decreased turnout among constituencies that historically have voted for progressive candidates,” combined with a strong Republican performance among independents, delivered Scott Brown the margins he needed to win.

The poll, which was commissioned by “Women’s Voices, Women Vote” and conducted by Lake Research Partners (a firm headed by Martha Coakley’s pollster Celinda Lake), found that key demographic supporters of Obama (unmarried women, people of color, and younger voters) did not turn out in large numbers for Democrats. The Massachusetts turnout reflects recent trends in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections.


An exit poll was commissioned by women's group and done by a professional polling company. If the poll were not deemed up to Simon's standards for whatever reason, an accurate statement by Simon would have gone something like, "The only exit poll done was (a sloppy one, or a substandard one, or whatever disparaging description one wants to insert here). So, Simon's assertion that no exit poll at all was done is inaccurate, by my standards. It is possible that this poll escaped Simon's attention, since it was not commissioned by any media. In any event, I would never have made a flat statement that no exit poll at all was conducted.

Also, I am not sure what you mean when you say the 70% Dem majority in MA. Masachusetts is indeed very blue, but over half of registered voters in Massachusetts are registered unenrolled, the Massachusetts equivalent of independent. http://www.tauntongazette.com/article/20140722/NEWS/140729362 We do elect Republican Governors regularly, but there is no denying we are very blue state. However, I am not sure where a figure like 70% Democratic comes from because it's not coming from voter registration.

I followed this campaign and election VERY closely from inside Massachusetts--inside Boston, to be precise. I would bet my life that Coakley lost BIG.
I believe optical scan machines with paper were recommended after the Gore/Bush fiasco. Skwmom Sep 2015 #1
optical scan: best of both worlds eniwetok Mar 2016 #28
Yes, Massachusetts distrusts voting machines, which is why we went to paper ballots after 2000. Why merrily Sep 2015 #2
Keep in mind that polls are also suspect now Stevepol Sep 2015 #6
I understand that. However, I repeat: anyone who thought Coakley won is dreaming, at best. merrily Sep 2015 #7
Dream or not, you might want to check out Simon's work. Stevepol Sep 2015 #11
Why would I? It's moot. Besides, merrily Sep 2015 #12
In fairness, I have to add that Coakley was a good Attorney General and ran a merrily Sep 2015 #17
it is not moot. it happens everywhr questionseverything Sep 2015 #20
Polls were always suspect. They are designed more to shape opinion than to determine what it is. merrily Mar 2016 #30
Coakley ran a terrible campaign.. eniwetok Mar 2016 #29
There were many reasons, but, IMO, this is not the time or the thread for that postmortem. merrily Mar 2016 #31
Were exit polls consistent with the reported results? n/t PoliticAverse Sep 2015 #3
There were none. Stevepol Sep 2015 #8
No news organization did exit polls, but an exit poll apparently was done. merrily Sep 2015 #18
are we reading the same article? questionseverything Sep 2015 #21
Are you sure this article refers to a rigorous exit poll? Stevepol Sep 2015 #22
I knew what you were quoting from. Is Simon supposed to be infallible? Even IF the exit poll that merrily Sep 2015 #24
I appreciate your points. It does seem that Simon ignored a well-done exit poll. Stevepol Sep 2015 #25
As I stated upthread, if you want to discuss the importance of a clean vote, availability of merrily Sep 2015 #26
Voting machines should be absolutely, and publically, verifiable. tecelote Sep 2015 #4
It's not enough to just have a paper trail. Stevepol Sep 2015 #16
there are so many ways to rig an election questionseverything Sep 2015 #19
How many others have wondered why dhol82 Sep 2015 #5
There is a paper trail in many cases, just no "audit" Stevepol Sep 2015 #9
Wall St Candidates Wouldn't Win billhicks76 Sep 2015 #10
I strongly agree with you. Stevepol Sep 2015 #14
HANDS ON VOTING!!! ellennelle Sep 2015 #13
The only conclusion one can reach is both parties want it that way zeemike Sep 2015 #15
I am convinced that both parties want it that way also. Once you accept that it is not GoneFishin Sep 2015 #23
This is why I'm against ranked choice voting. SaveTheMackerel Feb 2016 #27
but... eniwetok Mar 2016 #32
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