Democrats have a Florida problem

[In It to Win It]

POLITICO

MIAMI — National Democrats are grappling with an identity crisis. It’s even worse in Florida.

For those who’d been in denial, the 2024 election proclaimed Florida as a red state. The party got romped up and down the ticket, and many of the same factors that affected the rest of the U.S. were magnified here: Voters were deeply concerned about immigration, inflation and the economy, and Republicans received strong support from Hispanics.

Yet Florida is poised to become even more powerful, both in President-elect Donald Trump’s Washington and in the national electorate in the decade to come as the state grows.

If national Democrats ignore the trends in Florida then they may very well be writing their own obituary, party strategists in the state say.

“If you want to elect presidents from 2032 on, we have to start winning states that we are losing,” said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist who successfully helped former President Barack Obama win Florida twice. National Democrats would need to invest in Florida and other southern states because it would otherwise take a “crazy set of circumstances to win Congress or the presidency,” he added.

Population growth leading up to 2030, when the next census and reapportionment take place, could deliver even more congressional seats — and Electoral College votes — to Florida, Texas and other Republican-friendly states, while Democratic-leaning behemoths of New York and California are poised to lose ground. The bottom line? It may not be possible for Democrats in future presidential cycles to get to 270 electoral votes without reversing their fortune in the South.