Coronavirus May Have Spread in U.S. for Weeks, Gene Sequencing Suggests

[Igel]

27. 50-50% chance.

If the grownups are in charge, it won't be bad. It'll be like a bad flu season with more than the usual number of hospitalizations.

Note that every large-scale testing run of people that *might* have contracted the disease shows a large number of people with COVID-19 but without symptoms--but that's a larger sample that's still not random. So a S. Korean sample was heavily weighted for adults, while we know kids tend to have a much greater chance of being asymptomatic. This pulls the hospitalization rate way down for most groups, but it's the kind of number that professionals have trouble with because it's a guess. And we can't stand uncertainty.

80% report relatively mild symptoms. But that's only 80% of the people reporting *any* symptoms. Most assume that that's 80% of the people with the virus, a much smaller cohort. The fact that it's been spreading for weeks unnoticed is actually a good sign for the severity of the illness, however much it may lead to panic by underinformed people who need to be confident they're smarter than the average bear. The subcohorts showing severe symptoms fall into specific categories--think "intersectionality" when it comes to risk. But the media reports gloss right over that, because it produces more viewership and more panic.

I suspect that when the dust settles and the floors are mopped the response from competent health authorities will be that China took all the proper steps for a disease that was truly, truly dangerous, albeit a bit late. But that this will turn out to be one that didn't merit all the panic building and panic oppression. Some of it was sincerely "we must address the health crisis" and part of it was eye candy for those who doubted Xi & company, "we must be seen to address the health crisis" and show that they were all studly "take charge" sorts of folk after looking like wusses with both thumbs up their collective butts.

If the idjits are in charge, it'll be a CF. People will panic, buy stuff they don't need, creating shortages. They might make caregivers' work harder, and even turn on those they suspect of carrying the "plague," because, after all, each individual is more important than the collective.

Right now smart money's on the idjits.