Court orders defiant Kentucky clerk to issue same-sex marriage licenses in compliance with SCOTUS...

[jberryhill]

5. Before breaking out the leg irons, the next steps are...

1. She moves for a stay pending appeal to the Supreme Court.

2. The appellate court will, on this decision, likely deny the stay.

3a. (Optional) She moves for en banc reconsideration by the 6th Circuit (i.e. the whole court and not a three judge panel). That would likely be denied. This move is typically done to put the case in better condition for appeal to the Supreme Court, but there is extremely little likelihood that that full 6th would do any different here.

3b. She files an emergency petition with the Supreme Court for a stay. Again, unlikely positive result on that.

And, for the zillionth time, she can't be "fired", she's an elected official.

So, everything drops down to the District Court, which renews the initial order, and issues an "order to show cause" why she should not be held in contempt. She gets a hearing on the order to show cause. She loses that one, as there is no good faith reason why she will not comply. There is nothing vague, no lack of notice, etc..

The District Court then has a variety of options.

1. The DC can start a penalty clock, such as $X per hour that she continues to refuse to issue the license.

2. The DC can indeed have her taken into custody by the US Marshalls until such time as she relents.

Personally, I think she is going to go the distance on this one, and if taken into custody on contempt is not going to change her mind. She will remain in custody until her term expires, and the order becomes moot as to her.