So if McTurtle is having 20 minute conversations with people

[Wiz Imp]

44. A special election almost certainly would benefit Republicans, NOT Democrats.

The current situation is VERY BAD for Republicans and a GREAT SITUATION for Democrats. Democrats are the ones who should not want a special election. An incapacitated McConnell means Republicans have only 52 votes in the Senate instead of 53. With only 52 votes, now only 3 Republicans need to vote with Democrats to kill any legislation or nominees. For example, Democrats now need only 3 Republicans to vote against Blanche as AG to kill his nomination. With McConnell present or another Republican elected in a special election taking his place, Democrats would need 4 Republican votes to kill Blanche's nomination.

Even if a Democrat won a special election it would at most be minimally worse for Republicans than a vacant seat or an incapacitated McConnell. Having a Democrat in that seat only really helps Democrats during votes where one or more Republicans are absent. Whether it's 52-47 or 52-48, Democrats still need 3 Republican votes in the senate to kill Republican legislation or nominees. A special election which would almost certainly be won by a Republican, would give Republicans back that 53rd vote for several months.

Worst case for Republicans with Special election, Democrats win but it has no real effect on Senate votes. However, if a Republican wins a special election , they get their 53rd vote back which is extremely significant.

A 53rd Republican in the Senate is an enormous advantage for Republicans (4 Republicans would need to join Democrats to kill legislation or nominees instead of the current 3 with McConnell not present), while a 48th Democrat effectively doesn't help Democrats at all (Democrats would still need 3 Republican votes to kill legislation or nominees - just like now).