I don't think Trump can win the election in 2024.

[Jedi Guy]

22. I think we underestimate him at our peril. We did that once, to our sorrow.

The GOP has spent the last four years gimmicking things at the state level in every way they can. All of those efforts have gone towards helping him "win" in 2024. Given that and how the electoral college works, he could very easily eke out a win there even if he lost the popular vote as he did before. This is particularly true with the spoiler candidacies of Cornel West and RFK Jr. Neither has a chance in hell of winning, but the two together might siphon away enough votes to hurt Biden.

This is a dangerous time for the country. We can hope Trump's ever-mounting legal woes will knock him out of contention, but he'll become more and more desperate as his legal problems escalate, and that desperation will make him dangerous. Look at the shit he's saying now and imagine what he'll be saying as the likelihood of guilty verdicts increase. He will have absolutely no compunction against whipping his cultists into a frenzy to save himself. The real question is how many of his cultists will answer the call. I think that when the chips are down, most will be all talk and no action. Those few who do answer the call can still potentially do some damage, though.

With any luck he won't end up getting the GOP nomination and Biden will win walking away because dispirited cultists will stay home and not vote for whomever the GOP ends up running, though. That's the scenario I'd like to see.