Let's talk about Trump's 10-day timeline for Iran.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's 10 day timeline.

As the US military buildup in the Mid East or in locations that would support the Mid East operations continues and the assets in place suggests the largest military operation since 2003 could occur without congressional authorization. Trump gave people a timeline of when they could expect something. He said, "Now we may have to take it a step further or we may not. Maybe we are going to make a deal. You are going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”

Ten days is interesting and not just because it covers the window in which the Supreme Court is likely to release its tariff ruling. It's interesting because he didn't say two weeks. Representatives Ro Khanna of California and Thomas Massie of Kentucky are promising to force a war powers vote, which would put Congress on record about whether they support another elective war in the Middle East.

Khanna said, “Trump officials say there's a 90% chance of strikes on Iran. He can't without Congress.” I mean, he shouldn't, but most of Congress seems willing to completely abdicate their constitutional obligations and just do what Trump orders them to, regardless of the will of the people they're supposed to represent.

Massie said, "Congress must vote on war according to our Constitution. Representative Ro Khanna and I will be forcing that vote to happen in the House as soon as possible. I will vote to put America First, which means voting against more war in the Middle East. America First. I see what you did there, Massie. That's going to absolutely infuriate Trump.

What may bother him more is that early vote count math says that the House would actually vote to restrict Trump's actions against Iran. Don't think it means that a huge number of Republicans suddenly found their spines. Currently, if everybody shows, Republicans can only lose one vote on a party line vote. There are early indications that there are four who would vote to restrict Trump. But that number may change as Trump will undoubtedly start applying pressure.

It's important to remember that any operation of the size the buildup indicates would have far-reaching and unpredictable effects. Even if successful in the stated goal of regime change, the US would then have to contend with non-state actors all over the Middle East who are no longer restrained by Tehran. While the US often frames them as Iranian proxies, it's important to remember that in some ways Tehran kept a leash on otherwise unpredictable groups.

I don't know if I trust the guy who lost elective trade wars to start real elective wars, especially when there's no imminent threat to the US, the victory conditions are pretty murky, and the geopolitical implications are far more complex than anything Trump has ever even imagined. Just for context, remember that even the crew who ordered the US into Iraq in 2003 knew Iran was too complicated to rush into.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.