"Is Iran winning the war?" ( Professor Robert Pape) excellent strategic analysis

[vanessa_ca]

@ProfessorPape
Yesterday, I had an extensive conversation on Unherd on the strong reasons to think Iran is winning — up over $1 billion in oil sales, controlling Hormuz, shocking energy markets, and exerting real pressure on the Gulf states to distance themselves from US and Israel’s war.

UnHerd's Freddie Sayers speaks with Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, Robert Pape, to discuss the high-stakes ‘escalation trap’ unfolding between the United States and Iran - breaking down the tactical successes and failures of the US military campaign and analysing how Iran is leveraging its geographical position and control of the Strait of Hormuz through low-cost drone and missile harassment. As Professor Pape draws comparisons to the Vietnam War and 1973 oil crisis, has the Trump administration lost control of the conflict's trajectory, and are we moving toward a dangerous ground power dilemma that threatens the global economy and the stability of the Western alliance?

[Aussie105]

1. The US strategy in any war has always been . . .

brute force, hit them hard with superior weaponry and hope that does the job.

Unfortunately for the US, Iran was well prepared.

Will superior war strategy succeed over the US brute force approach?

Seems like it currently.

Blocking the Straight and attacking US assets in the region weren't foretold by the US military.
(Assuming Trump consulted them at all, really.)