Science Confirms The Obvious: Gun Laws Are Associated With Fewer Gun Deaths

[freshwest]

But all that really tells us is that we need more research.

By Shaunacy Ferro - 03.06.2013

Firearm Legislation vs. Fatalities Fleegler et al. (Go to the link below to enlarge or drag to your desktop to enlarge them to read easier if needed.)




In the wake of some particularly high-profile mass shootings, the national debate over gun control is perhaps more heated than ever. Does gun control actually result in fewer deaths? Or does the solution lie in some other kind of protection?

A study published today in JAMA Internal Medicine found that more firearm laws are in fact associated with fewer firearm deaths, although that may not actually tell us whether one leads to the other.

Researchers from Harvard University and the Boston Children's Hospital looked at firearm-related fatalities between 2007 and 2010 and compared each state's rate of firearm fatalities per 100,000 people. They created "legislative strength scores" on a scale of 0 to 28 for each state's firearm laws, with each law counting as one point. (Gun-loving Utah came in with a score of 0, while Massachusetts had the strongest laws with a score of 24.)

For the four years they examined, there were 121,084 gun-related deaths in the U.S. -- 73,702 suicides and 47,382 homicides. The overall fatality rate was 9.9 per 100,000 individuals a year. According to the study, there were about 300 state firearm laws on the books across the nation as of 1999...


A 2011 analysis of gun deaths by The Atlantic showed a similar association:



Had to cut some of it out due to the 4 paragraph copyright rule. The next paragraph gives the reason they say they need to do more research, as there are other factors explained. To see that part and a good deal more with more links and the comments go to:

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-03/science-confirms-obvious-gun-laws-mean-fewer-gun-deaths

This shows which states need more education to promote gun control.

[dkf]

1. Geez could there be MORE gun deaths in Chicago and DC were it not for these gun laws?

It boggles the mind.

I'd like to see the correlation between gun homicides and gangs vs gun homicides and gun laws.

Another study that would be interesting is efforts to incarcerate gang members and gun homicides.

Suicides shouldn't be part of the story.

[Robb]

2. Gang-related shootings are a tiny fraction of homicides.

In Colorado, suicides represent 76% of gun deaths.

What you ask is absurd.

[dkf]

4. Since most gun deaths are suicides it is curious this is not the main rationale for gun control.

No instead we key on mass random shootings which are rare and certainly even less of a occurrence than gang shootings.

[gejohnston]

6. The real answer to your questions is simply out of sight out of mind.

because there is no real evidence that the suicide rate would go down. While there have been studies attempted to show that, they don't seem to be accepted by serious researchers. Out of the studies done comparing before and after stricter laws the studies showed that while gun suicides did drop, the suicide rate did not. Also, rural areas have higher suicide rates than urban areas. While saying it is "because there are more guns in rural areas" might be true if the problem was limited to US, Canada, parts of Europe, New Zealand, and even Australia. The problem is, the problem is just as true in Japan, South Korea, and other countries where legal gun ownership is almost nonexistent even in rural areas.

Mass shootings make the news because they are rare. The victims also tend to be whiter and more affluent, all the more reason for the media to care more.

But I digress.

[aikoaiko]

7. FYI: AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service

Word.

AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service

At Sun Mar 17, 2013, 10:15 AM an alert was sent on the following post:

The real answer to your questions is simply out of sight out of mind.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1262&pid=156

REASON FOR ALERT:

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate. (See <a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=aboutus#communitystandards" target="_blank">Community Standards</a>.)

ALERTER'S COMMENTS:

As explained downthread, denying the existence of much evidence is an NRA talking point = hide in this group (please see the SOP), thanks.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Sun Mar 17, 2013, 10:21 AM, and the Jury voted 0-6 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: Nice try.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: The post addresses the OP and does not meet the criteria for hiding it.
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: The alerter is very imaginative. The post is SOP compliant.
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: I wasn't aware that the gun safety debate had anything to do with suicide AND that the NRA had anything to say about suicide. If what the poster said is not true, then rebut it. Suicide, too, is an important discussion to have, whether or not it has anything to do with gun safety or the NRA.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[DanTex]

8. LOL. Looks like the NRA talking points have found their way into this forum.

I don't know what you could possibly mean by "serious researchers", but I doubt you could find a single suicide expert who doesn't agree that guns increase suicide risk. The fact that gun availability increases suicide rates has been established over and over again in peer reviewed literature. The Harvard School of Public Health has a lot of good info and studies about this.
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/means-matter/

As a side note, if this forum is really going to be a place for progressives to discuss gun control, then we're going to have to do something about the denialism and the lies like in this post.

[gejohnston]

9. Hemenway isn't taken that seriously

certainly not among criminologists. He may or may not be in public health.
Maybe the word I should have used is independent, which would be more accurate.

[DanTex]

10. Not taken seriously by who? He's a Harvard professor with an extensive publication record.

The only people who don't take him seriously are the NRA, and that's not based on the quality of his research, just that they don't like his conclusions.

Also, I'm not talking about one paper by Hemenway. I'm talking about dozens of papers by a bunch of different authors. See below for a partial bibliography. Are you going to argue that none of those those authors are "taken seriously"?

Oh, and ignored my question. Can you quote a single expert on suicide who doesn't think that gun availability increases suicide risk? Well?

Brent DA. Firearms and suicide. Ann NY Acad Sci. 2001; 932:225-39. And see: http://www.suicidereferencelibrary.com/test4~id~513.php

Brent DA, Bridge J. Firearms Availability and Suicide: Evidence, interventions, and future directions. American Behavioral Scientist. 2003;Vol. 46(9):1192-1210.

Cummings P, Koepsell TD. Does owning a firearm increase or decrease the risk of death? JAMA. 1998 Aug 5;280(5):471-3.

Johnson RM, Coyne-Beasley T. Lethal means reduction: what have we learned? Current Opinion in Pediatrics. 2009; 21: 635–640.

This review article provides evidence regarding lethal means reduction as a suicide prevention strategy, especially through initiatives that reduce access to lethal means.

Florentine JB, Crane C. Suicide prevention by limiting access to methods: a review of theory and practice. Soc. Sci. Med. 2010; 70:1626–32.

Miller M, Azrael D, Barber C. Suicide mortality in the United States: The importance of attending to method in understanding population-level disparities in the burden of suicide. Annual Review of Public Health. 2012; 33:393-408.

This literature review examines the evidence that the proportion of all suicide attempts ending in a completed suicide (the case fatality ratio) accounts for a major portion of the variation in suicide mortality. In the US, the case fatality rate is strongly related to the prevalence of household firearms. Over twenty years of ecologic and individual-level studies support the hypothesis that reducing access to lethal means is an effective suicide prevention strategy.

Miller M, and Hemenway D. Gun prevalence and the risk of suicide: A review. Harvard Health Policy Review. 2001; 2:29-37.

Miller M, and Hemenway D. The relationship between firearms and suicide: A review of the literature. Aggression and Violent Behavior. 1999; 4(1):59-75.

This article provides a detailed review of the most commonly cited, representative and thorough empirical studies relating to firearms and suicide, focused largely on the United States.

Sarchiapone M, Mandelli L, Iosue M, Andrisano C, Roy A. Controlling access to suicide means. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2011;8(12):4550-62.

Yoder Slater G. The Missing Piece: A Sociological Autopsy of Firearm Suicide in the United States. SLTB 2011; 41(5):474–490.

Brent DA, Perper JA, Moritz G, Baugher M, Schweers J, Roth C. Firearms and adolescent suicide. A community case-control study. Am J of Diseases of Children. 1993;147(10):1066-71.

Brent DA, Baugher M, Bridge J, et al. (1999). Age- and sex-related risk factors for adolescent suicide. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry, 38, 1497-1505.

Brent DA, Perper JA, Allman CJ, et al. (1991). The presence and accessibility of firearms in the homes of adolescent suicides: a case-control study. JAMA, 266, 2989-2995.

Brent DA, Perper J, Moritz G, et al. (1993). Suicide in adolescents with no apparent psychopathology. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry, 32, 494-500.

Brent, D. A., Perper, J. A., Goldstein, C. E., Kolko, D. J., Allan, M. J., Allman, C. J., & Zelenak, J. P. Risk factors for adolescent suicide. A comparison of adolescent suicide victims with suicidal inpatients. Archives of General Psychiatry. 1988; 45:581-8.

Brent, DA. (1995). Risk factors for adolescent suicide and suicidal behavior: Mental and substance abuse disorders, family environmental factors, and life stress. Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior. 1995; 25:52-63.

Brent DA, Baugher M, Bridge J, Chen T, Chiappetta L. Age- and sex-related risk factors for adolescent suicide. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 1999; 38(12):1497-505.

Conwell Y, Duberstein PR, Connor K, Eberly S, Cox C, Caine ED. Access to firearms and risk for suicide in middle-aged and older adults. Am J Geriatr Psychiatry. 2002;10(4):407-16.

Dahlberg LL, Ikeda RM, Kresnow MJ. Guns in the home and risk of a violent death in the home: findings from a national study. Am J Epidemiol. 2004 Nov 15;160(10) 29-36.

Grassel KM, Wintemute GJ, Wright MA, Romero MP. Association between handgun purchase and mortality from firearm injury. Inj Prev. Inj Prev. 2003 Mar;9(1):48-52.

Grossman DC, Mueller BA, Riedy C, et al. (2005). Gun storage practices and risk of youth suicide and unintentional firearm injuries. JAMA, 293, 707-714.

Kellermann AL, Rivara FP, Somes G, Reay DT, Francisco J, Banton JG, Prodzinski J, Fligner C, Hackman BB. Suicide in the home in relation to gun ownership. N Engl J Med. 1992 Aug 13;327(7):467-72.

Kung HC, Pearson JL, Liu X. Risk factors for male and female suicide decedents ages 15-64 in the US. Results from the 1993 National Mortality Followback Survey. Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 2003;38(8):419-26.

Kung HC, Pearson JL, Wei R. Substance use, firearm availability, depressive symptoms, and mental health service utilization among white and African American suicide decedents aged 15 to 64 years. Ann Epidemiol. 2005 Sep;15(8):614-21.

Wiebe DJ. Homicide and suicide risks associated with firearms in the home: a national case-control study. Ann Emerg Med. 2003 Jun;41(6) 71-82. 1992 Aug 13;327(7):467-72.

Shah S, Hoffman RE, Wake L, Marine WM. Adolescent suicide and household access to firearms in Colorado: results of a case-control study. J Adolesc Health. 2000 Mar;26(3):157-63. Note: there has been one study (non-US) that has found no association between firearm prevalence and suicide rates: Beautrais AL, Joyce PR, Mulder RT. Access to firearms and the risk of suicide: a case control study. Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 1996 Dec;30(6) 41-8.

Birckmayer J, and Hemenway D. Suicide and gun prevalence: Are youth disproportionately affected? Suicide and Life Threatening Behavior. 2001; 31:303-310.

Hemenway D, and Miller M. The association of rates of household handgun ownership, lifetime major depression and serious suicidal thoughts with rates of suicide across US census regions. Injury Prevention. 2002; 8:313-16.

Miller M, Azrael D, and Hemenway D. Household frearm ownership levels and suicide across U.S. regions and states, 1988-1997. Epidemiology. 2002; 13:517-524.

Miller M, Hemenway D, and Azrael D. Firearms and suicide in the Northeast. Journal of Trauma. 2004; 57:626-632.

Miller M, Lippmann S, Azrael D, Hemenway D. Household firearm ownership and rates of suicide across the 50 US States. J Trauma. 2007; 62:1029-1034.

Shrira I and Christenfeld N. “Disentangling the Person and the Place as Explanations for Regional Differences in Suicide” Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior. 2010: 40(3).

[gejohnston]

11. I didn't say researchers thought any such thing

I didn't say any independent researchers didn't think there was a link. I said independent researchers AFAIK have not found cause and effect. I did not even say independent researchers attempted to try to find such a link. The OP did not say there was cause and effect. It simply said gun laws are associated with gun death, which are mostly suicides. Those are two different things.
A better map would be one based on ownership rate, which is harder to determine, would be better than by who has stricter laws. For example, in terms of gun ownership Florida, California, Delaware and Maryland are about the same.

Using the "fewer suicides" argument has two big risks. Saying "stricter laws will reduce gun suicides" will beg the question "what about those of other means, don't they matter?" The other risk is that once laws are in place, and the gun suicides do indeed drop, but the suicide rate does not. You would have much less credibility when wanting to close "remaining loopholes". From there, one would have to ask "what about those other common suicide means?" If nothing, why not if suicide prevention is the goal?

The person I replied to someone who asked why suicides and daily gang violence, which is more common, is used as less of a rational than the relatively rare spree shooting. That is a good question. I think I gave a fairly good answer within your SOP, according to six DUers. It was also my honest opinion.
BTW, those are written by the same people

[DanTex]

12. In other words, you can't name a single researcher who agrees with you.

I mean, here you are insisting that no "independent researchers" believe any of the many peer-reviewed studies on the topic, and that the Harvard School of Public Health is not "taken seriously", and yet you can't find a single instance of a suicide expert agreeing with you.

[gejohnston]

14. I said none have found, AFAIK

I didn't say anything about believe. I look at before/after results in different jurisdictions. IIRC, that is confirming, or not, by experiment. I didn't even say there wasn't a correlation or association. I only said I seriously doubt that there is a cause and effect.
See the difference? But then, it could just that people in those states drink more soda as teen agers.
http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2011/10/28/study-soda-violence/

[DanTex]

16. Umm, you said "they don't seem to be accepted by serious researchers" (post 6)

And yet you can't name a single one of the "serious researchers" who doesn't accept the studies on guns and suicide from HSPH and other places.

I'm not particularly interested whether you personally believe that guns affect suicide rates. You can also believe the world is flat if you choose to. But if you are going to claim that the "serious researchers" don't accept something, you should probably be able to name some researchers that you consider serious and that support your point of view.

[gejohnston]

17. I also used the qualifier "seemed"

that is to say outside of the same few people using the same questionable methods. I haven't taken the time to read that list, which is mostly Hemenway, I'm going to take a wild guess that they cite other Hemenway studies, and other studies cite each other.
Other than defending Hemenway's reputation, do you have anything to say about any other point I made? My opinion of Hemenway had nothing to do with anything else I said.

A researcher doesn't have to agree with me to not accept Hemenway's studies. They only have to be agnostic and not take Hemenway seriously let alone view it as a definitive work.

[DanTex]

18. You need to look up the word "mostly".

I count 32 papers in that list, of which Hemenway is primary author on exactly one, and he is a secondary author on six others. So when you say that list is "mostly" Hemenway, that is lie number, umm, I've lost track, I think you're in the triple digits by now.

I'm not sure why you're hung up on Hemenway, he's not really even the leading researcher in the area of guns and suicide. My guess is that he's the one the NRA teaches people to hate, so you guys end up believing that all the studies are by this one Harvard professor with an anti-gun vendetta. This is how myths circulate.

A researcher doesn't have to agree with me to not accept Hemenway's studies. They only have to be agnostic and not take Hemenway seriously let alone view it as a definitive work.

Again, can you name any such researcher? Can you quote any expert on suicide that doesn't take Hemenway, or the Harvard School of Public Health, or any of those other studies seriously?

As for your "point", what you miss is the evidence linking gun availability and suicide goes far beyond the simple observation that suicide rates are higher in states with more guns and laxer gun laws. If you would spend more time reading the literature and less time reading gun blogs you would know that, and then maybe you'd be able to make a point that was actually on-topic.

[gejohnston]

19. he is the most cited on your list

he is also the most cited in the media.
Actually I have read the literature. Most of it qualifies their studies as "gun suicide rate" instead of "suicide rate"

[DanTex]

20. Do you ever say anything true? "DA Brent" is first author on 9 of the studies.

Are you even trying?

Actually I have read the literature. Most of it qualifies their studies as "gun suicide rate" instead of "suicide rate"

Wrong again. I'd ask you to back this up with some evidence, but I think we both know what happens when you are asked to back any of your false claims with evidence.

So, should I assume you've given up on the lie there are some "serious researchers" somewhere out there that don't believe any of the studies on guns and suicide?

[gejohnston]

21. your point?

since you haven't said anything of substance yet.
I didn't say anything about first author, so how is that relevant?

[CreekDog]

23. you oppose gun control, why are you here?

[DanTex]

5. Yes. Maybe even as much as New Orleans or St Louis.

Also, I thought this forum was supposed to be free of stupid NRA talking points. Because I count 3 NRA talking points in this post:
1) "DC and Chicago prove gun control doesn't work" (those are just two datapoints)
2) "the real problem is gangs, not guns" (only a small fraction of homicides are gun-related)
3) "suicides don't count" (there is a lot of evidence that reducing gun availability lowers suicide rates)

[CreekDog]

24. There are Illinois' state laws and statewide is lower than Indiana

for example.

and Michigan's too.

both states have weaker laws than Illinois and both states have higher gun deaths.

by your logic, the entire state of Illinois should have higher gun deaths because the laws don't work, but only Chicago, which borders the loose gun law state of Indiana, is a higher rate.

[progressoid]

3. Marking this for a later read.

[Progressive dog]

13. CDC puts US suicides by gun at approx. 20,000 in 2010

They put total suicides at 12.4/100,000 which calculates to 39,000 suicides. Suicides by gun are successful 85% of the time, while pills only have a 2% success rate.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/14/us/to-lower-suicide-rates-new-focus-turns-to-guns.html?pagewanted=all
While correlation does not prove cause and effect, it is a necessary part of proof. A second part of proof would be a rational mechanism by which the effect follows the cause. If the cause (gun restrictions) put in place with the intention of achieving an effect, then a correlation is very close to proof.

[freshwest]

15. Going the root causes of the desire to commit suicide would help, too. There was a paragraph at the

Last edited Tue Apr 30, 2013, 02:52 AM - Edit history (1)

link about the 'ecology' of different areas that requires some local research.

Those states, counties or cities need to have honest dialogue about why people are behaving this way. Financial causes rate at the top, IMO.

I agree with your sig line. I think it's a matter of identity. The question as to why they need guns to protect that personal need, is a demographic that's not discussed.

[Electric Monk]

22. kick nt