much-forecast insolvency of the Social Security system by about 2030 is most unlikely to happen

[FogerRox]

“Dean Baker and Mark Weisbrot have no trouble at all demonstrating that even on highly conservative assumptions about economic growth, the much-forecast insolvency of the Social Security system by about 2030 is most unlikely to happen then, if indeed ever.”—The Economist



http://www.press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/035468.html

[drm604]

1. K&R

[Hoyt]

2. To be fair, I don't think anything written in 1999 is applicable in today's economy.

Doesn't mean we are doomed, but the economic conditions are quite different now.

[FogerRox]

3. The basic premise is entirely up to date

An actuary's job is to provide a very conservative financial estimate. And the GOP has used this as part of their playbook since the Lenenist Strategy was published by CATO in 1983.

Post 1983, Social Security was never intended to survive 25 years of recession, and that is what it will take to deplete the SS trust fund by 2033.

Baker said it then and says it now. Not even Krugman can hold a candle to Baker when it comes to SS.

[Disheartened7]

4. Reason why there is less money than expected.

We gave big business tax deductions for moving our jobs and production over seas.

Today we send all of our money to Communist China and support their slave labor and government subsidized
labor and materials.

We have No jobs, as all are in other countries and half of our population drawing benefits leaves little in the Government
coffers.

It is not the amount of payment to individuals but the amount of individuals drawing on the entitlements.

Quit, subsidizing Communism while denying or Veterans what is their due ! That should include taking away any TAX
deductions for Communist lovers !

[cyberswede]

5. Communist lovers?

Not sure what you're talking about...

[uppityperson]

8. Maybe Walmart since they use cheap Chinese labor and get lots of tax deductions?

[TBF]

6. Where are we "subsidizing Communism" -

I want to sign up!

[uppityperson]

7. Welcome to DU. What entitlements do you mean? I agree that we need the jobs and outsourcing to

China is wrong.

[gopiscrap]

10. welcome to DU

[pinto]

9. Great piece. Thanks for the snag.

To reclaim the majority’s share of the economic pie is the real “challenge and opportunity of the twenty-first century,” to paraphrase another of President Clinton’s favorite lines. Yet the question of income distribution has been removed from the political agenda. Instead we are told that we can no longer afford our not-so-generous social safety net for the elderly. It is one of the greatest triumphs in the history of public relations to have transformed this prolonged episode of class warfare into an intergenerational conflict.

Mark Twain once said that a lie can get halfway around the world before the truth even gets its shoes on, and it’s hard to find a more compelling example than the lie about Social Security’s finances. Despite the fact that none of the numbers cited here are a matter of dispute, the public has been overwhelmingly convinced that Social Security is in deep trouble. According to a February 1998 poll by Peter Hart Research, 60 percent of nonretired Americans expect Social Security to pay much lower benefits or no benefits at all when they retire. The proportion is even higher, at 72 percent, for people aged 18-34.

[RebelOne]

11. Well, if it does happen, I'm not going to worry because

I will not be here in 2030, as I am already 75 years old. But maybe if I live to be 91.