Finally Our Own Group- and some thoughts on Iran

[JCMach1]

...errr so to speak.

I really hope it doesn't just become an I/P ghetto.

As for me personally, living here in the Middle-East completely changed my perspectives on the place. The first thing I learned was NEVER to trust the so-called experts and go with what you see.

For example... right now I am (for the first time) actually concerned there will be war with Iran in one form, or another.

All of the pieces I have seen on the ground are in-place.

1. Anti-missile shield to protect the Gulf States and to keep them quiet while the US and/or Israel does the work... CHECK
2. Large capacity pipelines to keep the oil flowing in-place. CHECK, now complete.
3. Iran reaching point of no return for building a bomb. CHECK

Other than absolute Iranian capitulation in last minute talk with the US (regardless of who wins the election), their will be a war in the next 12 months.

Makes me double plus glad I am re-locating back to the states soon before the shite hits the fan.

[Leopolds Ghost]

1. An I/P ghetto for the possible Persian Gulf War 4, you mean?

It's true that we've been talking about it here on DU for so long (since 2004, before I even subscribed) that it's more "boy who cried wolf" than a conspiracy theory per se. I'm afraid that if and when it does happen it'll come as a shock to many people. Well, it will certainly mobilize the Movement back at home if talk of war heats up. Don't forget that October 6 was the ten-year anniversary of the current US-Mideast conflict...

[JCMach1]

2. You might remember, I have been a big skeptic whenever someone has posted a 'war is coming' thread

The facts on the ground tell a different story now.

As we speak Iranian centrifuges are spinning out 20% refined Uranium to 90% (fissionable). Once the latest round of talks are over, all bets are off.

Like I said, I just hope I get out before anything happens.

[bananas]

3. In the boy who cried wolf, the wolf eventually showed up.

When Carter was president and the Shah's government was collapsing, it was decided that Saudi Arabia would replace Iran as our military client state, and Kissinger arranged the sale of nuclear hardened airbases and a command and control system we could just plug into. That was installed during the 80s and used by poppy bush in the first gulf war.

When Clinton was president, conservatives wanted him to finish the job in Iraq, but he didn't want to. Then dubya became president and invaded Iraq.

So I've seen it twice where these things were planned many years before circumstances ripened. And the neocons made it clear that Iran would be next, so I'm not going to be surprised when they eventually follow through. And they won't be deterred by a handful of nukes.

[tabatha]

4. Obama is going all out with sanctions, on both Iran and Syria. They are joined at the hip.

And Iran is going all out, ...... for?

1h Robert Rowley @RRowleyTucson
PHOTO JOURNAL: #Iran police raided homes in poor areas of #Tehran to collect satellite receivers j.mp/yMG6Qw

BTW, Iran is running the show in Syria.

It also appears that Syria has a chemical factory that the Russians are using to bypass the non-proliferation agreement on chemical/biological weapons Russia signed. Do you think they want the West interfering in Syria because of that?

[Douglas Carpenter]

5. The fact that the ostensible goal of the air strikes is unachievable by air strikes might put some

restraint on such an action. Or at least according to the Pentagon and Secretary of Defense Panetta - there simply are no bunker buster bombs capable of penetrating Iran's most fortified underground facilities. The idea of supporting multiple bunker busters’ assaults with Special Forces would require deploying them deep inside heavily fortified hostile territory where they will almost certainly be greatly outnumbered. The dangers of this would come close to being almost prohibitive.

Anti-missile shields might have significant success in intercepting some of Iran's more advanced systems. But they will largely be useless in preventing Iran from using its enormous numbers of low tech missiles which are deeply buried in almost unapproachable terrain.

The pipeline can keep a fair amount of oil flowing - but not enough to satisfy all the market demands. Roughly 30% or more will still flow thought the Straits of Hormuz

And all of this based on an assumption that Iran has a nuclear weapons program. I don't know if they do. The IAEA doesn't know if they do. The United States military and intelligence services don’t know if they do.

Another assumption is that Iran will be in such a state of shock and awe that they will not resort to more drastic measures which few doubt that have the capability to perform if they so choose. Iran is a fiercely nationalistic society. Even those that we describe as liberals and pro-democracy are fiercely nationalistic and even more supportive of Iran's nuclear program.

If Iran so chooses they do have the ability unleash quite a bit of chaos onto the Gulf States - enough to cause crisis in the oil markets and in the global economy.

I agree that the possibility of war is now greater than at any previous time. But I am quite certain that the planners of the Pentagon and the U.S. Intelligence services do not think it wise or in America's national interest.

[ellisonz]

6. I view all this in a Cold War perspective.

There will be no all-out war, too costly for all involved. There will be continuing economic disturbance and proxy war. Iran is a pariah state, not a rogue state.