2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIf the Russian scandal leads to abolishing electronic voting, 4 years of President Pence
Will absolutely suck - but will be endurable.
Trump will be impeached. It's clear that Trump's unpopularity will continue to grow - the man simply cannot resist alienating as many people and entities as he possibly can. The intelligence community is going to nail him with a whopper. It's probably already been decided within Republican circles that they will not defend him much longer. (And Republicans like McCain and Graham - and even Rubio, despise the orange creature almost as much as we do!)
An establish GOP player, Pence is obviously manageable - their kind of guy. Yes, he's a right-wing scoundrel, he's going to set back progressive causes decades, but he isn't going to dance to Putin's tune, and he isn't likely to start WWIII.
But what HAS to come out of this scandal - is not just how bad Trump and his campaign were/are - but how vulnerable our electronic voting system truly is - which must lead to it's abolition!!! THAT must be the primary focus - or we're headed to another election where massive theft will be a possibility again - either performed by a hostile foreign power again - Russia, China, name your country, - or done by a domestic player.
Pence will not enjoy the grassroots support that Trump has, and we know that the Trump/Pence policies will fail miserably, and become wildly unpopular. Polarizing figures like Jeff Sessions will likely to lead to widespread civil unrest. 4 years from now - people are going to want change again. Pence will not be difficult to beat - provided we have done away with - or seriously made fail-proof electronic voting.
After the impeachment of the disgraced Trump THIS will have to be the primary focus of progressives. Without it, the voting majority has little chance of reclaiming much power. Simply put - THE GOP CHEATS!!!!!!!!!!! And the American people have to be convinced - once and for all - that ELECTRONIC VOTING IS TOO VULNERABLE AND WILL ABSOLUTELY DESTROY AMERICAN DEMOCRACY!
We can't allow the subject to remain taboo. It goes without saying, this is not the only issue - but we can accomplish next to nothing without it being seriously addressed. The GOP has to be put in a position where it can't be seen defending it, any more than it can be seen defending Trump.
50 Shades Of Blue
(10,887 posts)ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)Keeping him makes no sense. His popularity is an all-time low for an incoming President - 37%. He's a bad investment for them - as explosive negative news drips out every day.
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)A new Federal Law would preempt the state laws.
50 Shades Of Blue
(10,887 posts)ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)And shrinking by the day - Trump is expendable
50 Shades Of Blue
(10,887 posts)And if they even sound like they're thinking about it, Trump's Russian pals will play their hacking trump card.
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)You make a good point about the Russian playing their hacking trump card - and releasing the dirt they have on the GOP. They still will - Trump will become such a political liability and will soon pick fights with all of the GOP leaders. That's just him.
50 Shades Of Blue
(10,887 posts)in his own way as Trump in his, but observing Trump go off the rails even farther than he already has if he were impeached wouldn't be nothing.
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)50 Shades Of Blue
(10,887 posts)Chasstev365
(5,191 posts)GOP controls 33/50 Legislatures.
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)It will be tough. But not impossible, under the right circumstances and sufficient public pressure.
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)are subject to hacking and the worst ones are being replaced.
An electronic voting machine is just another counting device, even simpler than a cash register, and much more reliable than exhausted poll workers manually counting.
We have computers doing accounting because they are much more reliable than human bookkeepers.
You do your banking online, order airplane tickets and furniture. Even pizza. With very few problems. Why is it assumed that voting can't be as simple and error-free as having your 7-11 app adding up coffees for the free one?
Do you assume the chip in your MasterCard is being used for nefarious purposes?
Here's a thought-- head for your local BoE and volunteer to be a poll worker. You even get paid for it. After seeing first hand how things work, come back and tell us all how you would improve it. And tell your county how to improve it.
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)"This is very different than the vote system in the United States, which is very, very hard for someone to hack into because it's so clunky and dispersed," Comey said, adding that states should be in contact with the Department of Homeland Security and "make sure that their deadbolts are thrown and their locks are on."
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)EL34x4
(2,003 posts)Nobody (outside of conspiracy mongers) is even claiming that the actual votes themselves were manipulated.
Russian influence consisted of hacking into the DNC and releasing embarrassing emails. How is this supposed to lead to the abolishment of electronic voting?
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)Voting data bases for nothing, right? You say there's no evidence - as if ALL FACTS that are uncovered by the intelligence agencies are released directly to the public. We know as much as everyone who works in the CIA, for example. Why would anything be classified at all then?
I say it's incumbent upon you to explain the huge discrepancies in the exit polls - which, of course, were originally conceived to detect fraud in elections, and which US administered ones are still used to detect election fraud in other countries - but (after the Bush 2000 fiasco) have been conveniently discredited in the US. Jimmy Carted conceded to Ronald Reagan on exit polling alone - do you think they've gotten worse at conducting them this many years later?
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)Last edited Mon Jan 16, 2017, 06:13 PM - Edit history (1)
Is a convenient way of discrediting anyone you have a disagreement with. Just how many things are ever done without 2 or more parties involved - "conspiring" with each other?
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)Here you go. Trump's results are the same odds as flipping heads 23 out of 25 coin tosses.
http://www.cpegonline.org/tag/ron-baiman/
mythology
(9,527 posts)https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit/
Theories based on unadjusted exit poll data are pure fantasy nonsense.
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)Other independent exit polls from reputable sources found the same thing. I saw TV talking heads who've spent a career in politics - like Michael Murphy - looked positively stunned by these swing state final vote counts - and he mentioned how counter they were to the exit polls. As did everyone in the Trump campaign.
But, hey, if you're comfortable with the rural white man invisible voter myth, then fine. SORRY. I'M NOT!
jmg257
(11,996 posts)election polls"??
i would love for someone to write something DEFINITIVE on this exit poll stuff...too many theories not enough facts.
Anyway...
" When the polls close, pollsters dont adjust the data to match the official results. They use the official results from the relatively small number of polling places where they conducted interviews to refine their sample. For example, if their model assumed that 30 percent of voters at a polling place would be black, and that number actually turns out to be 20 percent, or 40 percent, then theyll weight the data accordingly. During this period, theyre also entering any surveys that were sent in late (again, this is all based on incomplete data).
These adjustments, and the inclusion of those late surveys, can account for significant shifts between the preliminary numbers posted when the polls close and the release of the final exit polls an hour or so later. But the important point here is that the final results are more accurate, not less so.
MaeScott
(899 posts)NoGoodNamesLeft
(2,056 posts)And they might put Ryan in office instead.
ElementaryPenguin
(7,838 posts)Ryan and Pence both suck royally - but not as badly the evil orange emperor!