I think Biden could have won

[hollowdweller]

I was just watching this tonight and he is just a way better politician than any of the ones that ran this year.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/grow-donald-time-adult-biden-says-pbs-newshour-interview/

[elleng]

1. I agree.

I don't think he's the only Dem who could have won, but he's surely high on the list.

[Eliot Rosewater]

26. He and a whole long list of folks who havent been the target of 3 decades of

propaganda and lies.

[Binders Keepers]

2. Hell yes he would have won.

[Binders Keepers]

3. And would have made plenty of entertaining gaffes

...on the road to victory, too!

[hollowdweller]

43. No gaffe's in that interview.

[JI7]

4. he is a white male so he would have been able to get away with things that Clinton could not

he also has a personality type where gaffes don't hurt him as much since it's kind of expected and he is still viewed as experienced and intelligent leader.

[NCTraveler]

5. I'm really not sure if going to the right of Clinton would have won.

It would have made the primary a lot more exciting than the blowout it was. Running a white male might have had some advantages. As progressives that conversation truly needs to be ignored outside of the societal aspect.

[hollowdweller]

46. For sure Biden is more conservative except on foreign policy

But I'm not talking politics here. I'm talking the ability to be likeable and to deliver a message, even an attack that lands on an opponent.

[NCTraveler]

49. Agree with your overall thoughts here.

Though I do think landing shots on Trump actually benefitted him. It sounds so messed up to say. I think it's what some of us are still trying to figure out.

[hollowdweller]

56. If they helped him they didn't land.

[NCTraveler]

67. Do you have an example of an attack line not used that you think would have landed?

When looking at the polls it seems they were landing. Trump was less liked and trusted than Clinton. Didn't matter. Then again millions more did show up for her.

[hollowdweller]

68. Grow up.

[NCTraveler]

73. I don't get your reply.

I thought your reply was fine and mine respectfully built off of it.

[drray23]

80. Recently joe biden told trump to grow up

He said that a few days ago about Trump.

[NCTraveler]

75. Kick for transparency. Nt

[redstateblues]

6. Yep

[WhiteTara]

7. 4th time's the charm?

He lost every primary he ever entered. But hey, who's counting.

[Cha]

8. Really.. I love Joe.. but all this talk about who would have won who

never even made it out of the primary or even ran is just PURE SPECULATION.

[NWCorona]

12. Agreed! And a bit counter productive as the players that "could have" won't be in 2020

[MFM008]

18. And it is

Pointless.

[dionysus]

25. Its all specilation, and by now, it just keeps the lrimary fedteting, and serves no

Purpose.

[hollowdweller]

44. I started this not so much about speculation as to who could have won but

About the kind of person we need to run next time.

I love Bernie,he think he said the right things and voted for him in the primary. However he more or less repeats his speech and issues at every interview. I do think that repetition is a good thing and being unable to be knocked off message is a positive, but I think Biden is a bit more conversational than Bernie.

I voted for Hillary, but I think she was not able to convey her message. Also when I saw the last debate, and she had this angry face and spent the most of the time attacking Trump with sort of an angry look on her face, down in the mud slinging it I really started to first entertain the idea she could lose. While I read her website and totally agreed with most of her positions, I don't think speaking wise she conveyed any clear overriding message other than minorities should vote for her because Trump was scarey. (True) and that she wanted to be the first woman president.

Biden on the other hand in that interview had a smile on his face, was congenial but he pretty much insulted Trump in a way that was WAY more effective than anything Clinton did.

So I think that whoever we choose next time, and I'd prefer it to be someone much younger than Clinton, Biden, or Bernie, I think we need to choose somebody who is capable of delivering attacks and the message in a better way.

Far as the DNC, I was watching an interview with Ellison, and maybe it was just a one off or something, but while I agreed with him on what he was saying, he was stopping and starting and I didn't feel he was entirely conveying his message. However every time I have seen Tom Perez I have felt that he was a good speaker and delivered his message well. I like Ellison's politics better but as the public face of the party, like on tv and stuff I prefer Perez.

Know what I'm saying??

[NWCorona]

11. I'm gonna still say he could have won but you've made the best point so far

[treestar]

34. In those cases he had not been V

for 8 years. So that dynamic I don't think would apply.

[WhiteTara]

36. So, 4th time's the charm.

[treestar]

38. My point was it wouldn't be the 4th time

But the first after having been a popular VP for 8 years.

[WhiteTara]

40. But it would still be his 4th effort.

Let's not revise history here too. His baggage still has his name on it.

[MichMan]

9. If he would have survived the primary

A three way primary with Biden, Clinton, and Sanders would have been brutal

[hollowdweller]

47. Not sure the DNC would have conspired with Clinton against Biden though

He still would have had a lot of money coming against him though. Plus Clinton had a large cadre of people hoping to get jobs in the new admin that could have attacked Biden and I don't think Biden has the same amount of surrogates he could have mobilized with the offer of patronage.

[stevenleser]

63. Still with that nonsense? Clinton's delegate lead was from the South. The DNC had nothing to do with

that.

Nothing the DNC did impacted the primary result. Hillary got millions of more votes.

[hollowdweller]

70. It's just like the hacking. Nobody knows what effect it had in the whole thing.

[stevenleser]

71. No, it's not. Not at all. The DNC had zero effect on the primary. nt

[onetexan]

10. i'm sure Biden didn't run in deference to Hillary

but i do hope he will be in both good mental and physical health to run in the next election so he can kick the orange idiot out of office if he's not impeached by then. I love Joe despite his gaffes and love love love his wife Dr. Jill Biden. She could have taught at major universities with her credentials but chose to teach at the junior college level. She is ever so graceful and dignified, and made a great pair as first ladies with Michelle O - a pair of well-educated women who carried themselves with such class. I believe Jill is the first second lady i really paid attention to.

[bettyellen]

15. why is Jill's lack of ambition such a positive and notable trait?

[onetexan]

16. Lack of ambition??

LOL you seem oblivious to her bio. Try googling to learn a bit about her .

[bettyellen]

17. You're the one who noted she could have taught at major universities but scaled back her ambitions..

I thought it was strange that you thought that was a positive thing? Did I read that wrong?

[onetexan]

33. Sheesh no need to have an inferiority complex

If you don't get why she chose to teach community college over major universities any amount of explaining won't help.

[DashOneBravo]

61. She and FLOTUS

Also started a group called "Joint Forces". A group that targets military families not just the veterans.

[hollowdweller]

48. Really being good and sticking with the little guy is a good thing.

We've seen where sticking with money and prestige gets us.

[bettyellen]

62. Interesting point of view. I was truly puzzled by the post but I really do not know much

About Jill. Not even sure what her field is.
Thanks for giving me your take on it.

[SaschaHM]

13. Joe Biden is like Bizarro world Hillary Clinton in that...

Many of the things she got dragged over the coals for he actually did or did as well with gusto. He actually wrote the Crime Bill, voted for NAFTA, Voted for DADT/DOMA, voted for the War, opposes legal weed etc...

I'd vote for VP Biden in a heartbeat because I believe that people can change, but outside of being a charismatic white man, I don't see how policy wise/political history wise, he would have done better than Hillary.

[bettyellen]

14. I honestly think many BOBers didn't care about policies as much as hating HRC ....

Many I spoke to knew nothing about her career, only Bill's. And it b vet occured to them how sexist that was.

[treestar]

37. I agree. They anyone but Hillary crowd

would have been fine with a lot of the same behavior or more of it from anyone who wasn't Hillary.

The BOB crowd in this instance would have been focused on Anita Hill and such.

The oversimplification of saying one is a "warmonger" for voting for Iraq might not have applied. It's like insisting on calling water at 40 degrees "boiling." Like vote for one authorization for war and you have to be a "warmonger." They would not have held it against Joe in that fashion - have they ever called him a "warmonger" or criticized Obama for choosing a "warmonger" for a running mate.

And of course being female has its price, it would have held against Joe a lot less than it was held against Hillary.

[WhiteTara]

39. And loving old white men.

[BlueMTexpat]

53. Spot on! eom

[hollowdweller]

54. Well, you know I might resemble that statement.

I mean I wasn't a "Bernie or Bust" guy, I mean I voted for Hillary in the general, but for me it wasn't about her policies.

I always loved Hillary. When she won that senate seat I was so happy. I always felt she was a democratic champion and she might be the next Teddy Kennedy or Robert Byrd. I certainly thought she would be somebody like Elizabeth Warren, somebody outspoken who would draw more people to the democrats.

But it seemed like she never caught fire in the senate. She played it safe and even cooperated with the hawks on stuff like the Iraq war. Yet I didn't see her being a big voice for paid vacation or sick leave or other worker rights.

Then when she ran against Obama I felt like she ran a crappy campaign. She never was able to articulate a clear message and she even attacked him in a way that was somewhat ham fisted and actually caused some voters she needed to circle the wagons around Obama.

Then when Obama appointed her SOS I was happy like I was when she was a senator again. With her experience what great things she could do. I mean she had met most world leaders. She is incredibly smart and has all sort of connections. However once again like as senator I felt she played it safe and was a bit more hawkish than I would have liked.

Then she ran against Bernie and I thought she ran an ok campaign but once again made a lot of mistakes that prevented her from putting him away early and she even helped him by making some too conservative statements that caused some liberals to circle the wagons around Bernie. Not enough to cause her to lose but still enough to keep them from going in totally with her when she won.

I voted for her in the general but I felt that she had the same problems she had had in every campaign and position. Plus by this time the GOP was totally ready for her because they had used the same playbook for 30 years. One of the other reasons Obama won was the GOP had been gearing up for attacking HER so they never fully developed a strategy to ruin him (till he was elected)

So you are right about me, not about agreeing with her policies but hating her. I like her and thing she would have been a good president. I agree with her policies but thought she was not able to be elected.

Now we can argue I'm wrong, because the majority of people DID vote for her, but I live in the rustbelt and I was sensing the weaknesses that did her in in those areas and ultimately led to her defeat.

So for me I don't want somebody like Manchin but I would be for somebody more liberal than Hillary, or more conservative to a point, as long as I felt they were able to win.

My point by posting the interview with Biden was to point out he was a better speaker on his feet that Clinton or Sanders. I'm not FOR him next time but somebody who is a better speaker. Like Bill Clinton was also. Obama.

[bettyellen]

64. I agree Biden could have taken it - his personality alone is more "relatable" and "likable"

And we can be certain pundits wouldn't be asking him stupid questions like "why do people hate you".


But you don't sound like a BOBer to me.

[treestar]

35. Much as I hate it, being a white man would have helped

Following the first black President with the first woman was in hindsight just too much for many deplorables - maybe we overplayed our hand on that.

[hollowdweller]

69. So do you think that is a weakness with Ellison?

I mean I think one of the reasons Clinton was able to win in some places was despite being a democrat people identified with him because he was a white southerner and trusted him because he was a member of his tribe?

If we need to reach out to the mostly white christian leaning rust belt and rural areas more wouldn't a guy that looks like them be able to deliver the economic message better? It's terrible to say that though.

[treestar]

74. Who is Ellison in this context?

Not the guy who is the Muslim rep? Who is the white southerner?

Maybe in hindsight Biden could have campaigned in the rust belt for Hillary. Then again, terrible as it is, campaigning for himself might have had more effect. I think the rust belt took us all by surprise.

[JHan]

77. Bingo! The double standard stinks.

[Orsino]

19. Seems another possibility.

But we can never know. The general sure would have smelled different.

[Grey Lemercier]

20. He was my first choice by far since Obama won in 2012, but I quickly pivoted to Hillary

as soon as he declared as not running.

Yes, I absolutely think he would have won, although I disagree that many other Dems could have. Bernie would have been crushed. Warren might have had a shot, not sure. Our bench was not that deep. Biden will probably be too old in 2020, I do not have a single clear favourite atm. Gavin Newsom perhaps, maybe Kamala Harris BUT, I really REALLY need to know why the hell she declined to prosecute Steven Mnuchin’s (we have to block that fucker from being confirmed) OneWest Bank for MASSIVE mortgage criminal violations.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028427979#op

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028427979#post4

[BlueMTexpat]

24. Biden had some major

baggage from the Clarence Thomas-Anita Hill days. http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/13/politics/confirmation-anita-hill-joe-biden-clarence-thomas/

Too many of us remember that baggage too well.

[Grey Lemercier]

28. I was 10 months old then, so do not remember this, obviously. I assume he overcame

any objections during his vetting and then running as the VPOTUS with Obama.

[karynnj]

45. You and other people your age might have heard more about that hearing had he run

As it was there was a made for TV movie that was very well done that covered what happened in more detail than most of us older than you could have read at the time. It is pretty devastating that although he voted against confirmation, he cut off further hearings even as other women came forward. As it was, this was the narrowest SCJ vote ever - 52 to 48. It is interesting that it was not a party line vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarence_Thomas_Supreme_Court_nomination#Senate_confirmation

The NYT has an interesting article that gives some of the Senators' stated reasons for their vote. As the movie made clear, some of our strongest voices at the time were silenced because of their own problems with women. That article - and the movie - may show that it could have been politically wise for the Democrats, controlling the Senate to not push this forward and lose the votes.

[BlueMTexpat]

52. He has been an excellent VP

but he was the running mate of the exceptionally charismatic Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Biden would never have done so well on his own - and certainly not as well as Hillary did in 2016.

[treestar]

41. He needed up redeeming himself

with the VAWA. That type of purist though does make a lot of noise. The same that would not forgive Hillary for Iraq though she said she was wrong. Then again a man might have gotten forgiveness more easily.

[BlueMTexpat]

50. Men WERE forgiven more easily.

John Kerry in 2004 did not get even half the backlash for his Iraq vote as Hillary always has.

I finally gave BOTH a pass mainly because they each had overwhelmingly redeeming features.

But Biden's active assistance in discrediting Anita Hill to foist Clarence Thomas on us all for life - and the terrible consequences of that (e.g., Bush v. Gore) still rankle.

[treestar]

57. good point about Kerry

don't know what Biden was thinking about Anita Hill. Then again it was the 80s and respect for a nomination by the other party was far greater so long as they were qualified. The partisanship wasn't off the charts.

[JTFrog]

60. Many who couldn't forgive her (like the JPR'ers) had no problem with Edwards, Kerry, Biden.

DU archives prove it. There is no shortage of sexism or misogyny in America.

[stevenleser]

65. I'd rather not believe that, but there is no other reasonable explanation for that behavior. nt

[BlueMTexpat]

66. Just as there is no

shortage of racism or bigotry.

We must keep working on ALL of these.

[zappaman]

21. Ok, but he didn't cuz he didn't run.

thanks for letting everyone know though!

[mtnsnake]

22. I think he could have easily beaten someone like Trump or Cruz

but may have had a harder time against Rubio or Kasich.

[Grey Lemercier]

29. Biden v Kasich is the one matchup out of all possibilties I would be afraid to predict.

We will never know.

[BlueMTexpat]

23. Why do we keep seeing these

revisionist history posts?

Biden. Did. Not. Run. Rinse and repeat.

[mtnsnake]

27. After a devastating loss, people just like to speculate with no harm intended. It's human nature.

There's nothing wrong with the OP.

[jalan48]

30. I agree. It's too bad he wasn't running but I think the choice had been made years ago.

[spin]

31. Joe is one of the most likeable politicians in DC. ...

I feel he would have beat Trump in a landslide.

[Raine]

32. Absolutely he would've won! nt

[karynnj]

42. You never know the path not taken - and he would have had to beat Clinton in the primaries

I realize you state that you "think" Biden would have won. Others have said that Sanders would have won. In reality, we do not know. In the case of Biden, he was tied more tightly to Obama than Clinton was. One thing that is interesting is that he was seen as opposite of Clinton in being LESS a hawk than Obama where HRC was more hawkish. However, Biden was the point person on Iraq in the first term. He was the person who was unable to get a SOFA agreement, leading to the US removing all our military - which the Republicans blame for ISIS being able to grow. (It is very likely NO ONE could have gotten that SOFA and imagine the uproar had Obama left troops there without that protection - but I am speaking politics.)

There is less difference in backgrounds than the image makers projected. Clinton was born to a middle class Chicago area family and managed to get into Wellesley, then to Yale Law. Biden was born into a middle class family went to University of Delaware, then to Law School at Syracuse. One big difference was that Biden, at least in law school, was a pretty lazy student -- while that has never been said of Clinton. It is funny that that difference in personality, in politics, might actually work in Biden's favor (as with George Bush). (A hard point for me to accept as I personally was a serious, good student.)

Neither was born to the American elite -- and both got where they did through their personalities and intelligence. I agree that Biden seems far more accessible to lower middle class and middle class people - as does Bernie Sanders, than Hillary Clinton. The question is whether Biden, running as the third term of Obama, would have reached the disaffected, frustrated, economically depressed people who were lost in PA, MI and WI when HRC ran and it was seen as the either the third Clinton term or the third term of Obama.

During the month or so when Biden played with the idea of running, we got what was likely only a fraction of the attacks from the Clinton team that would have happened if he ran. Suddenly, there was a plethora of stories that all characterized Biden as a loose cannon, silly - even loony. This for a man who was in the Senate for decades, who ran major committees. The Onion seemed to have created a Biden meme that always was somewhat inappropriate. With many people getting their news from comedy shows, I suspect more people, if asked to name something Biden did would refer to something silly rather than his work leading the government effort against cancer, his foreign policy work, or his work in support of the economic recovery.

However, there were REAL things that would have been used against Biden. He was terrible as the Chair of the Judiciary Committee when the Clarence Thomas hearings occurred, he was the sponsor - not co-sponsor or someone who merely voted for - the crime bill from the Clinton years. Representing Delaware, he voted for every single one of the bad bankruptcy bills. Had Biden entered the race, Clinton would have thrown the kitchen sink at Biden -- as her team did against Sanders. All three of these would have put him on the defense with key Democratic constituencies. (It is impossible to mentally play out how a Clinton/Biden/Sanders primary would have played out. It might depend on how much of Sander's support was really Anybody but Clinton. You could make a case that any of the three win. )

Imagine that Biden did win that primary, which would have been nasty. Clinton supporters mention how all the differences spelled out in the primary hurt Clinton. However, Biden, who actually was the sponsor of legislation protecting women, would have been labeled negatively by the Clintons because of how Anita Hill was treated. Biden would likely not have abandoned Obama on TPP, which Clinton would have demonized and with the bankruptcy bills and the crime bills, it is very posibble that Biden's jovial, outgoing, extroverted personality would not have been enough to win those same rust belt. Not to mention -- given that HRC said in her book and elsewhere that she was against pulling out all the troops in Iraq. She would have set up that issue (which the Republicans tried to use against her by tying her to Obama) for the Republicans.

I suspect that Biden's decision not to run was partly that emotionally after the death of his son, he was not up to doing everything that needed to be done. I suspect that the certainty that he would face a knock down fight with the Clintons was a major deterrent because it could have lost what then was seen as an election we were favored in and cause a war within the party. That Obama had made his preference clear at least by 2013.

[randr]

51. Right you are

[JTFrog]

55. No Democrat was gonna beat Russia who was teaming with Drump, Comey, wiki et al. nt

[guillaumeb]

58. SO if we could only go back in time to 2015, and if we could then convince Biden to run,

and if the voter suppression could have been stopped, and if....etc.

[ShaquantaBrown]

59. me too.

I love Joe.

[BlueStateLib]

72. Biden's problem

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

[Chemisse]

76. I don't think he would have beat Hillary in the primary.

But if he had, I also bet he would have won.

He has a folksy appeal and he's willing to say what he means. That might have attracted the more sensible of the Trump voters.

[HoneyBadger]

78. Hillary would have crushed Biden in a closed primary

[Squinch]

79. It's over. Move on.