The governor's races in 2017 and 2018

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In 2017 we have two governor's elections one in VA and one in NJ. We currently hold one of them. We have a pretty good winning streak in VA but some have been close calls. I still think we should be favored in that race. In NJ, the GOP incumbent is about as popular as getting a root canal while giving a speech while naked in public. We should win that race easily. Worst case here is a split decision but I think we are favored for gaining one governorship.

In 2018, we have what should be a good map. The GOP have term limited governors in AL, FL, GA, KS, ME, MI, NV, NM, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, WY and a retirement in ID. In comparison we have only CA, CO where we are term limited and CT where we have our own unpopular incumbent. We have, or should have, a good shot at FL, GA, ME, MI, NV, and NM. We should have some shot at OH. Admittedly the rest are varying degrees of long shots. We have problems in CT and CO could be dicey but otherwise we should hold our current seats. Assuming that we lose both of CT and CO and win only 2/3 of the 6 races we should be favored in that is a gain of 2. Honestly we should win at least 5 of the 6 and should hold CO for a gain of 4.

Governor's races and state legislative races are where we can, and need, to make our gains in 2017 and 2018. The House is all but unwinnable until the maps are redrawn (we have to win by about 7 points to have a shot under current maps). The Senate is a bad map this time with a decent map next.

[guillaumeb]

1. There is also a 2018 Governor's race in Illinois.

In 2014, billionaire predatory capitalist Bruce Rauner won the election, an election with a 34% turnout, by spending 65 million dollars of his own money. Since then, for 2 years he has failed to present a balanced budget, a Constitutional requirement, but he has been basically campaigning against the Democrats. In December, he gave 50 million more to his 2018 campaign.

[dsc]

3. we should be able to beat him

though he has all but a licence to print money.

[guillaumeb]

6. And rich backers like Ken Griffin and Sam Zell,

and the cheerleading of the Chicago Tribune.

[bigdarryl]

2. Democrats will find a way to fuckup 2018 races

By picking lousy candidates and being outspent by the republicans.The 2016 Senate map was tailor made for the democrats and they had some of the worst candidates running plus they got clobbered in the fund raising.

[Wellstone ruled]

4. Here in Nevada,

we have a couple of folks that have the right backing and money to take the Governorship,as well as Heller's Senate Seat. One major item is,what will be the Harry Reid effect. And yes in the Senate Race,Religion will pop up and the Wynn/Adelson money.

[crazycatlady]

5. Isn't the guy in CO term limited?

[dsc]

7. yes which is why I think that could be dicey for us

I don't know who we have to run in his stead.

[dsc]

8. I forgot to mention the states where there are incumbents

Three states where we win large usually have GOP governors. MA, MD, and IL we should be able to win all three. We are defending one in a Trump state, Wolf in PA and hopefully we can win that. Our other incumbents (except Malloy in CT) should be safe. We should win the three I said plus have a shot at AZ