2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPlayed like a drum
I hesitated starting with this comment, but can we please stop with the bullshit?
Sanders did not cost Clinton the election. Hillary had a substantial post-convention bump. We were a united party. However "unfair" you think Sanders' tactics were, they didn't affect Clinton's popularity. The "Blame Bernie" movement is a complete fiction with only one objective in mind . . . keep the Democratic Party in the hands of a middle-of-the-road leadership.
Choosing Clinton did not cost us the election. Hillary was not a weak candidate. Her 3 million+ vote victory in California may not stand for what Clinton die-hards want to believe, BUT it does show that she was a great candidate with a great message. While we're at it, Sanders would not have won. TRUMP DID NOT RUN ON AN ECONOMIC MESSAGE, he ran on HATE. There weren't enough economic voters in Trump's camp that if they switched over to Sanders, Sanders would have won. I suspect that Sanders supporters still pushing this line have the same target as the "Blame Bernie" movement.
It is highly unlikely that Comey cost us the election. I understand the temporal correlation between the release of the letter and Clinton's decline in the polls, but as the saying goes, "correlation does not equal causation." The fact of the matter is that no one in the real world gives a FRA about Hillary's e-mail server. The ONLY people who got fired up by Comey's letter were the same people who were fired up by the Vince Foster suicide.
DIRECT voter suppression did not cost us the election. There is not one doubt in heaven or hell whether the racist scumbags in the GOP deliberately suppressed the vote through things like voter ID laws, closing polling places, and the disenfranchisement of convicted felons, BUT they have been doing this since 2000 and both the political parties and the pollsters have already figured it into the equation.
Finally, Black Box/election official skullduggery did not cost us the election. Our president is not in league with Trump when he says that the mechanics of the election were fair. If you believe that Black Box conspiracy stuff, you need to see a professional. <<< This was a hard one for me to come to grips with. The fact of the matter is that I could not see any explanation other than rigged vote counting for the fact that Hillary Clinton WON California by well over 3 million popular votes, but then LOST the cumulative popular vote in the 49 remaining states by a fairly significant margin OR for the sheer number of Obama districts that flipped to Trump. All California jokes (or boasting, if you happen to live in California) aside, California is a great state with a great state Democratic Party, but it's not that much better than the rest of us.
That is to say that I couldn't see any other explanation UNTIL I heard liberal blogger/radio host Mike Signorile talk about the full extent of Russian interference a few days ago. By the time the greatest president in our lifetimes spoke yesterday afternoon, it was clear to me that he was correct.
Apparently there were two facets to the Russian/Trump conspiracy. The first we all know about, the drip, drip, drip of DNC and Podesta e-mails. The other was that apparently there were also reports of overwhelming Clinton leads in early exit polling and of huge voter turnouts in heavily Democratic areas that were picked up and spread by the MSM that were COMPLETELY FALSE. I know that you all heard these just like I did. At five o'clock on election day, I was telling friends that by the time they got off work at 7:00, Hillary would be our president and we might just have both chambers of Congress.
Let's think about this . . . obviously the email leaks were designed to tamp down enthusiasm.
Even though Sanders only had one path to victory (and it ironically involved a near-sweep of super-delegates. Sanders knew he just couldn't make up for what were almost certain losses in New York, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and across the entire South without majorly flipping the super-delegates before California) and even that path was extinguished when he didn't sweep the upper Midwest, the DNC email leak showed that it clearly put its thumb on the Hillary's side of the scale. Now I agree that it's ludicrous to say it made a difference, but I'm not talking about the primary, I am asking everyone to at least comprehend the fact that a huge swath of our party could not have been real enthusiastic about Clinton. Mind you, I'm not saying they wouldn't voter for her, exit polls show they overwhelmingly did, I'm just saying that they weren't eager to get out to the polls and vote.
While I know many of you do not want to hear this, former Sanders supporters were not the only group of people who were not enthused by the time the GE rolled around. I talked to thousands of relatively young Southern urban black voters as part of the general election GOTV effort and they were not fired up either. Now this didn't have anything to do with the DNC/Podesta emails, but they really felt that Clinton had forgot about them when the primary was over. I told them what I believed (even before the convention when I was still working for Sanders), that you don't forget community and Hillary had spent years and years being as much a part of the community as a white person could be and that just because this issues they cared about weren't being talked about on the campaign trail didn't mean she wasn't still with them. I will tell you now, though, they didn't go away fired up.
The point is that heading into election day, you had a huge swath of the party that wasn't really into this election.
What do you think happens when these people (and even Clinton supporters who may not be as politically involved and naturally cautious as those on DU) get hit with the second prong? "It's in the bag . . . it's looking like a wave election . . . the lines are around the block in Miami" . . . THE BIG LIE. You guessed it . . . they stay home.
Because of our astounding hubris . . . because deep down MOST Democrat voters believed that it was in the bag, that it was going to be a wave election, that Hillary would win more electoral votes in history, that Trump was a p***y grabbing misogynistic troll who no one but the most insane Tea Partier would vote for Trump . . . when we heard that LIE, we lapped it up like a kitten at a bowl of milk. Polls close in an hour? . . . damn, I was going to pick up some chicken for dinner and maybe a six pack to celebrate with. And the numbers out of the eastern and central time zone states show it.
The Russia/Trump connection played us. They played us with leaks, and false news. Most of all, though, they played on our divisions and our weaknesses. They played the naïve cynicism of Sanders supporters. They played the arrogance and hubris of Clinton supporters. They convinced them that their vote didn't matter.
I can hear the naysayers now . . . well how in the world did Hillary end up with the most popular votes in history (not here to argue over this) if what you say is true?
Let's go back to California because there is where our popular vote margin came from and let's go back to my fearless election eve prediction. What did Democrats in California know that got them to the polls in numbers big enough to give us an over three million vote victory margin that we in the Eastern and Central time zones didn't . . . they knew the "exit polls," the reports of lines all around the block in Miami," the "coming wave" were all a lie. That they were propaganda. That we had lost in swing state after swing state. There was no cynicism, no hubris in California. They knew their vote counted. (Aside: One of the saddest things about this forum is the pathetic "if we just had 80,000 more well-placed votes, we would have won in the electoral college" meme. If Democrats across the country knew what California voters knew, it would have been the landslide we were expecting).
As we prepare to be ruled by a despot, an oligarch, we need to stop and consider the price of arrogance and the price of cynicism, especially when we talk to each other. We are all to blame. Even though we voted ourselves, we contributed to the hubris, we contributed to the cynicism. When we pull out our self-righteous finger to point at every day Democrats who believed us "experts" and who then bought the fake news about an impending landslide and who stayed home, we need to remember one thing:
Yea, we were robbed. Yea, Russian propaganda determined the outcome of this election. But at the end of the day . . .
This is on us.
Second over
kcr
(15,522 posts)Time to retire the sticks.
brush
(57,489 posts)BS. Hillary got 92% of the black vote, and Comey's treasonous letter had a huge effect.
As did the vote Crosscheck repug vote suppression apparatus.
Sorry, you're just wrong on most things you're claiming and you didn't even mention the millions of whites who voted for Trump. Place blame where it should be placed.
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)It isn't that it didn't make a difference. It's that everyone knew it was happening and we (and the polling people) knew those votes were gone. There is a certain irony here because I represented a group of convicted felons (representing 10's of other thousands of similarly situated poc with felony convictions) who were taken off the Florida voter rolls before the 2000 election by the Choicepoint purge, primarily on 15th Amendment grounds. I say "ironic" because I/we begged the DNC to provide financial/public relations help and they cut them loose AND when I have tried to bring up on DU how the DNC left those tens of thousands of black voters to die on the vine, all I hear is "It was Nader's fault."
Of course we got 92% of the black vote. I worked exclusively in Southern urban areas for both candidates. I didn't say we were stupid (no, that has to be reserved for Trump voters). I said that the youngish black voters I primarily talked to during GE GOTV efforts were not particularly excited about Clinton and did not turn out like they did for Obama, in part, in my opinion, because they did not believe they were needed. Now you may disagree with the why, but the numbers are what the numbers. They didn't turn out. If you have a better explanation, let's hear it.
Finally, Trump got about the same number of votes as Romney. Am I supposed to act like it was a huge shock to find out that Republicans are a pack of FIRCs? There are more of us, the fact that they are racist trash should not have made a difference.
brush
(57,489 posts)And 92% is damn high.
And I happen to be AA. I also worked on the campaign and the young AAs I know and came in contact with were for Hillary. It wasn't even a "thing" about not voting for her so I don't go along with your contention.
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)And our campaign experiences obviously differed, but I still don't see the explanation for decreased turnout being attributable to voter suppression when there has been tons of suppression (modern style) since 2000 including 2008 and 2012 and those are the years we are looking at when we talk about decreased turnout.
brush
(57,489 posts)Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)The VRA didn't stop voter ID laws and, most importantly it didn't stop district changes in states with no supposed past history of voters discrimination although it did wonders in those states that did
Like I mentioned before, they pulled exactly the same voter purge scam in Florida in 2000 and Florida actually was covered under the pre approval portion of the VRA.
Republicans are and always have been racist pos.
Sad thing, that decision would have been thrown in the trash heap but for this election. It wasn't just that it was a 5-4. It was also completely unjustified by precedent.
R B Garr
(17,377 posts)to this day. He has divided Democrats, and he did so knowingly to push his unproven smears to gain a personal advantage over a Democrat.
And his economic message obviously didn't resonate. As you can see, a BILLIONAIRE garnered more votes in crucial states where he smeared Hillary and Democrats by association. So those 70,000-something people who decided this election went with the BILLIONAIRE. Now the BILLIONAIRE has literally humiliated Bernie's crossovers by doing the exact thing they "claim" to be against. You all got played, big league.
Bernie handed Donald Trump the playbook on how to divide and conquer Democrats. Now look what we have.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)They pushed it up until the DNC convention and beyond.
Many were as hateful as any on the GOP. I was. It looking forward to working with them should he have won the nomination.
R B Garr
(17,377 posts)What a shame. At least the GOP knows not to give their power away, so they vote for who is on the ticket. That would have been another Sanders' drawback -- he has badmouthed Democrats for decades, and that would have been used against him in any GE. So much divisiveness, and absolutely nothing to show for it besides being even more screwed from the Bush era for years to come.
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)Not one of you can explain why, if Bernie so divided the party with what you hyperbolically describe as "hateful rhetoric," Hillary had a huge post-convention bump.
Did Bernie's folks temporarily forget their hate?
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)She had a bump despite them. Much as they tried to destroy her.
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)You can drone on an on about how offended you were about the Sander's delegates behavior and I not saying I approve, but over 40% of Democrats supported Sanders and UNLESS THEY HAD LINED UP BEHIND CLINTON AFTER THE PRIMARY she not only wouldn't have had a bump, she would have had a drop.
You are clinging to this fantasy of Bernie dividing the party either because you never dealt with the fact that anyone could actually oppose her OR because you just can't come up with a rational explanation why she lost that doesn't conform to your vision of her as beyond reproach.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)I don't think anyone is "beyond reproach" - in fact I think anyone who thinks any politician could be is a moron.
This "everyone is corrupt" except me was an idiot strategy and got us where we are today.
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)of agreeing with you, but you actually brought up one of the most misogynistic parts of this election.
Let's assume that every single bad thing ever said about Hillary was the gospel truth . . . Let's ASSUME for the sake of argument that she was bought and paid for by the big banks, or that she was secretly going to approve the TPP. Even if all that were true, the worst it makes her is exactly like every male candidate and everyone cued up right behind them. So, other than her gender, why would someone not be able to look the other way and vote for the good she brings just like they did in prior elections.
I may have a pretty dim view of people who want to blame Bernie, BUT I have no use whatsoever for anyone who deliberately voted against her.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Minority were loudly spreading RW crap.
Some of my friends did this and yeah they would have been okay w Biden or a lot of other men not any better than Hillary. And they brought up lots of stuff her husband did -including the affairs- and we know a man would be seen as his own person and not his wife. And saying things like "I can't listen to her" and "I hate her " while not being able to explain why except in tiny sound bites.
There's a lot of reasons we lost, sexism and the medias coverage are the biggest ones. I just think going forward we need to agree that demonizing our own like that has got to end. Feeding the scandal machine w baseless accusations is self defeating. We are a coalition and need to respect that and find a balance that serves us. We need to win big before "the system" gets reformed. Everyone needs to be cognizant of the process and goals. Unity!
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)Yes
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)To chill the hell out when they do destructive things like spread RW bullshit. Honestly I have a couple of friends who are so awful about that (bringing up Vince Foster and the Clenis- WTF?!?) that if I read them here, I would just assume were trolls. Now one did end up voting for Hillary but he still spent more than a year sliming her to anyone who would listen. (The other voted Stein and still is convinced HRC has not one single achievement to point to) But that Hillary voter- he's still on FB posting about the damned primary and how BS would have won. I posted to him - enough w the mf Guccifer Wiki Clenis crap. He almost destroyed his marriage he was so rabid.
Right now I think he's wasting a lot of energy, and alienating people to boot
Sorry for venting! Have a great weekend
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)That's bonding
You take care too
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Here is a disturbing little laugh for you, don't stop till you get to Jinah!
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/photos/2015/09/an-illustrated-history-of-donald-trumps-hair
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)ROFLMBAO
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)R B Garr
(17,377 posts)there is no doubt that a slim percentage of them that could and did influence the final outcome was all it took. I'm mostly basing that on the actual voting margins where you can clearly see how a few more votes for the Democrat instead of a non-Democrat would have made the difference.
But let's be real here. The whole ethos of Bernie's campaign was divisive, and the most virulent of his supporters were extremely divisive. They branded loyal Democrats as corpoDems and all that ridiculous name-calling which was meant to separate Democrats into Good/Bad camps for their own self-gratification and promotion. It was extremely divisive and a total destructive waste of time in the end.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Bernie gave STRONG VOICE to what people actually WANTED and is still doing so. It was a CHANGE year, and people wanted a CHANGE candidate. Much as I like Hillary, she just wasn't it, and she and her team made an array of mistakes. Period.
Please stop blame-shifting. It was hers to lose and she lost with campaign mistakes, a muddled message, too much time off the trail, and taking too many places for granted. BAD MISTAKES PERIOD!
Also, Bernie STRONGLY supported Hillary in the GE and campaigned like hell for her. So enough! Want the party to win again? Listen to Bernie and Liz Warren!!
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)They're ALL corrupt! Wiki wiki Guccifer!
Gues what, blind hatred and dumb ass slogans like that won.
R B Garr
(17,377 posts)dissing of Democrats. He is a divisive figure. That is how he distinguishes himself. He proves it again and again by remaining an "Independent" -- so he can smear people without having to be accountable for anything he says.
And it's not blame-shifting to look at the actual voting margins. Had the slim margins of supposed Bernie or Busters who swore to protest Hillary just voted for the Democrat, then we wouldn't have the monster con man in office now.
Bernie's message fell flat, and look at what hypocrites the holdouts are! They voted for the BILLIONAIRE, so apparently billionaires are not all that bad. Donald's pals make Wall Street look like boy scouts in comparison. Donald conned you all, and he did it with Bernie's playbook on how to divide Democrats.
So, NO, I don't want to listen to Bernie's message. He lost, and it lost!
joshcryer
(62,491 posts)JHan
(10,173 posts)I could be wrong but I didn't get the impression Democrats prepared for voter suppression. We needed to fight tooth and nail over the past couple years to fight conservatives who don't like the idea of enfranchisement for all. Where was that fight?
And unquestionably, arrogance makes us less aware of blindspots. We needed to be more desperate and not make so many assumptions this year.
And cynicism is rife but it's a product of "learned helplessness" - So many chose not to vote which tells me they believe their votes don't matter. Some wasted ( because that's what it ended up being) their votes on candidates who couldn't possibly win. Instead of seeing ourselves as positive agents for change through political involvement ( which goes beyond voting for a President) we dehumanize our politicians and the denigrate the whole process, without realizing that the less involved we are, the stronger the influence of special interests and power players. A Trump presidency offers Democrats an opportunity to remind people that their votes do matter, and their involvement matters.
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)But sad that we didn't see it coming.
Hillary Clinton should be the President-elect and she should have had both houses of Congress behind her.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)kentuck
(112,767 posts)That is why his supporters are still yelling, "Lock her up!" .
I agree with most of your post.
ucrdem
(15,703 posts)And to take mild issue with your argument, it's not that Californians know more, it's that their votes are actually counted. It took over a month to do it but I doubt the CA results are so much different from MI, PA or WI had their votes been accurately counted. The available evidence suggests very strongly that they weren't.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)You can't just dismiss voter suppression because 'it's been going on for a long time'. Not when a Supreme Court decision from just 3 years ago made voter suppression infinitely easier. https://thinkprogress.org/2016-a-case-study-in-voter-suppression-258b5f90ddcd#.cjtn1npru
Also, it's entirely possible that Comey and the FBI suppressed turnout for Clinton. People who may not have been enthused but were likely going to vote for Clinton may have chosen to opt out (Comey's letter could have been their last straw, so to speak).
And then there's the mainstream media; its love affair with spectacle and false equivalencies; its obsession with Clinton emails.
Plus all the people who insist there's no difference between the 2 major parties, which suppresses the vote or drives up 3rd party voting.
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)All I am saying is that the Democratic Party knows it's going on as do the polling companies and that they don't count on those voters. They don't say, "Yea, I know State X has cut early voting days and that this keep Y many voters from getting to the polls, but we're going to count on them anyway."
As for the Comey letter, I guess it's possible that it might have discouraged some Hillary voters but do you really believe a significant number of potential Hillary voters considered the email server issue anything more than a joke?
MSM? 100% They spread the Hillary has it in the bag because Dem turnout was through the roof fraud like wildfire. The only place I heard that it was just the opposite amd no one was showing up was here on DU (and DU got shut down before we really got the word out)
Last one, I pretty much agree, but most of those people would have shown up anyway if they thought it mattered. Just look at California.
Good points
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)So, no, the Democratic Party didn't know exactly what impact would be had, and there's much more to it than cutting early voting days. Click on the link in my last post.
Anyway, you did dismiss voter suppression as a factor in your OP. In a very tight race, any number of factors could have been the difference between winning and losing.
As you say, many were not enthusiastic about Clinton. So, it's entirely possible that a substantial bloc of voters were swayed to not vote because of the FBI's unprecedented interference. And, as hard as it is to believe, there are always undecided voters even in the final days of a campaign.
My issue with the MSM isn't so much that they pushed the "Clinton has it in the bag" narrative. Neil Buchanan did an excellent job of explaining how awful the MSM is: http://www.newsweek.com/neil-buchanan-cruel-crooked-caricature-doomed-clinton-520125. I also recommend this: http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/15/13955108/fake-news-2016.
And I guess I don't get your last point. Those who constantly spread the "lesser evil/they're all the same" narrative do great harm. Bill Maher addressed this: " target="_blank">.
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)Rational, evidence based the kinds of discussion we should be having.
I have some first hand experience with voter suppression from litigating the Choicepoint purge in Florida before the 2000 election so I won't argue with you there. It's a real issue.
I'm still pretty confident in my original opinion because even adding in the largest estimate of voters disenfranchised by GOP dirty tricks doesn't explain the California incongruence, but those are good points.