The push for the TPP & the effect on Clinton's economic message

[think]

Last edited Fri Dec 9, 2016, 02:07 PM - Edit history (1)

There hasn't been much discussion as to how the push to get the TPP passed in congress effected Hillary Clinton's economic message to voters during the general election.

The TPP was opposed by Clinton, Sanders, and Trump during the campaign. It became a huge issue among working voters in the rust belt where outsourcing had already caused great losses in jobs for this area.

Considering Hillary Clinton lost the rust belt getting 1.17 million less votes than President Obama did in 2012 this would seem to be very significant. (Trump gained 335,000 votes in this same area.)

Hillary Clinton's long time friend Virginia governor Terry Mcauliffe stating Clinton would still support the TPP in light of her publicly stated opposition to the TPP was also not helpful.

Yes, Hillary Clinton did have a strong progressive economic message & plan in her campaign.

However, many groups like the unions and environmental groups were strongly opposed to the TPP. The majority of House Democrats were also opposed.

The push for the TPP and McCauliffe's statement seemed to be sending a mixed signal to voters as it wasn't lining up with Hillary's campaign message.

Hopefully people will consider the effect the TPP trade deal had on the election as it appears to have been an area where Democrats lost ground especially in the rust belt states that were so important in this last election.

[bettyellen]

1. I thought it rated low in most polls? Can you cite any where it was a concern for a large %?

[think]

2. Here are a couple articles on exit polls:

Exit polls: Clinton fails to energize African-Americans, Latinos and the young

~Snip~

Rust belt states agree with Trump that trade costs jobs

~Snip~

Large shares of voters in key rust belt states key to Hillary Clinton's electoral map agreed with Trump's view that trade agreements have hurt American workers. And they overwhelmingly supported the billionaire businessman at the ballot box.

Half of Michigan's electorate feel trade takes away jobs, and these folks supported Trump by a 57% to 36% split. The 31% who think it creates jobs backed Clinton by a 65% to 31% margin.

In Ohio, 47% of voters say trade hurts workers, and they lined up for Trump by a more than 2-to-1 margin. The 46% who say it creates jobs or has no effect strongly backed Clinton.


And in Pennsylvania, 53% of the electorate agree that trade is bad for jobs. Some 62% supported Trump, while 34% backed Clinton. Among the 35% who feel trade is a job creator, Clinton was the favored candidate by more than a 2-to-1 margin.

Read more:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/08/politics/first-exit-polls-2016/

The exit polls tell us one sure thing: Voters wanted change

BY BRAD BANNON, CONTRIBUTOR - 11/18/16 03:02 PM EST

I finally got enough sleep after Election Day to function mentally. Here's my take from a deep dive into the 2016 exit poll.

Voters in the Rust Belt were especially tired of hearing Democrats say how good the economy was while working families were having a hard time paying their mortgages and feeding their families every month.

~Snip~

The coda to the 2016 campaign was General Motor's announcement the day after the election that it was laying off 2,000 workers in its assembly plants in Ohio and Michigan. Those 2,000 workers were hurt by international trade. Exit polls showed there were more voters who thought international trade took away American jobs (42 percent) than those who believed it created jobs here (38 percent).

On this issue, Clinton's change of heart on trade didn't help her. The voters who thought trade agreements were bad went for Trump more than two to one (65 percent to 31 percent).

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/306793-the-exit-polls-tell-us-one-sure-thing-voters-wanted

[Joe941]

3. This is fake news!

The polls have been proven to be fake and don't reflect reality.

[think]

5. CNN and The Hill are posting fake news? Do you have proof of this?

[Joe941]

7. All there election polls they reported were fake news!

Destroyed democrat's chances to win the election with fake news.

[think]

9. Their news on election polls is fake? It was obvious their polling wasn't great before the election

But claiming it was fake news seems pretty extreme. If you have some proof that would be helpful.

One might also consider that this election had some very huge last minute variables like the FBI director reopening the investigation to Hillary's email just days before the election can skew the results quite a bit.

Still we have the information here that these major news networks have provided. And it is obvious Clinton did not do that well in the rust belt so based on these polls and the results of the election it does seem trade was an important issue in this rust belt.

Unless there is major evidence of fraud by CNN and The Hill in their reporting of these election results I would hope people would consider these exit polls legitimate and consider what they reveal about trade issues and the rust belt in regards tot he presidential election.

[Joe941]

12. I'm not going to trust the new's polls - they haven't earned it.

They are bought and paid for by Trump and his cronies and designed to push Trump's agenda.

[think]

13. If this is so do you have some factual reference point we can use to confirm your claims?

The major news networks have been proven to be incorrect on plenty of occasions. But when they are wrong there are other news sources providing evidence to make the case that these news agencies weren't being factual.

So far you have offered your opinion but no information as to how you came up with your claim.

[NWCorona]

10. IMHO being fake and getting it wrong are two different things.

[bettyellen]

4. So skin color (white) and wanting "change" were the two biggest predictors of a Trump voter.

Much more strongly than any other factors, including the TPP. Not as easy to pick out the influence of the TPP itself here as it is with the other polls that list it as an issue.

Haven't seen any of those, have you?

[think]

6. The poll numbers on trade are right there in plain site. Do with these facts what you will....

[bettyellen]

8. When they are clearly ranked the TPP is rated a much lower concern than immigration and terrorism.

These polls don't have many particular issues listed or ranked at all, and the biggest differences they show that predict a trump vote are skin color - which is also linked to support of the wall and tough immigration policies.

Show us polls where all the major issues are ranked. Go ahead.

[think]

11. Perhaps you'd like to go get that data since you are making the claim. /nt